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NSE Intra-day chart (29 May 2023)
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Market Commentary 30 May 2023
Markets likely to make flat-to-positive start on Tuesday


Extending gains into the third consecutive session, Indian equity benchmarks ended over half percent higher on Monday amid improved global cues, following a tentative US debt ceiling deal over the weekend. Markets after giving a gap-up opening traded in positive territory throughout the session as traders took encouragement with World Economic Forum (WEF) President Borge Brende's statement that India is expected to clock the highest growth among the world's big economies this year and the country's economy is witnessing the famous snowball effect that will lead to more investments and more jobs. Some optimism also came as the commerce ministry stated that members of the 14-nation bloc IPEF have substantially concluded the negotiations on the supply chains agreement, including improving logistics and connectivity; promoting investments in critical sectors and cooperation for mitigation of disruptions to ensure business continuity. Traders took a note of report that domestic rating agency Icra expects GDP growth in January-March period of 2022-23 at 4.9 per cent, a modest step-up from the 4.4 per cent recorded in preceding quarters, driven by the services sector. Sentiments remained positive in afternoon deals, as Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pumped Rs 37,316 crore in Indian equities in May so far, primarily due to strong macroeconomic fundamentals and reasonable valuation of stocks. This is the highest investment by FPIs in the last six months. Before this, they made a net investment of Rs 36,239 crore in equities in November 2022. Further, support also came as Union minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said India is all set to become the fourth largest economy in world within two years. India is being seen as a bright spot globally and the world is placing its confidence in India, he said, urging people to continue posing their faith in the decisive leadership that will take the nation to new highs by 2047. However, key indices trimmed some of their initial gains in late afternoon deals as some concern came with Chairman of the CII Committee on EXIM Sanjay Budhia's statement that economic recession in Germany is likely to impact India's exports from various sectors like chemicals, machinery, apparel and electronics to the European nation. Traders also remained anxious as RBI said India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $6.052 billion to $593.477 billion during the week ended May 19. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 344.69 points or 0.55% to 62,846.38 and the CNX Nifty was up by 99.30 points or 0.54% to 18,598.65.


The US markets remained closed on Monday on account of Memorial Day.


The Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Monday, tracking a strong American currency against major rivals overseas. Sentiments were down beat even after Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 37,316 crore in Indian equities in May so far, primarily due to strong macroeconomic fundamentals and reasonable valuation of stocks. On the global front, dollar nudged lower on Monday, pulling back from six-month peaks against the yen as a U.S. debt ceiling deal lifted risk appetite across world markets and dented the greenback's safe-haven appeal. U.S. President Joe Biden on Sunday finalised a budget agreement with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025, and said the deal was ready to move to Congress for a vote. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.64 (Provisional), weaker by 4 paise from its previous close of 82.60 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8530.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 6741.17 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 851.34 crore against gross selling of Rs 441.46 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.88 crore against gross selling of Rs 42.86 crore.


The US markets remained closed on Monday on account of Memorial Day. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday as the tentative US debt ceiling deal now faces a tussle between the Republicans and Democrats before it gets passed through the Congress. Indian markets ended Monday's session higher despite paring some early gains. Today, markets are likely to make flat-to-positive start amid lack of triggers and muted global sentiment. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 1758.16 crore on May 29, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed. Traders will be taking encouragement as the National Sample Survey Survey (NSSO) showed that the unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 6.8 per cent during January-March 2023 from 8.2 per cent a year ago. Joblessness or unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of unemployed persons in the labour force. Joblessness was high in January-March 2022, mainly due to the staggering impact of Covid-related restrictions in the country. Some support will come as a private said the RBI may cut key benchmark policy rate in the fourth quarter of the current calendar year as a mix of factors will allow the central bank to shift focus and adopt a more accommodative policy stance sooner. Besides, a private report stated that India has emerged as a key source country for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Dubai, one of the wealthiest of the seven emirates in the United Arab Emirates. It ranked among the top five source countries for announced FDI projects and estimated FDI capital. However, there may be some cautiousness as the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) data showed that foreign direct investment (FDI) into India declined by 22 per cent to $46 billion in 2022-23, dragged by lower inflows in computer hardware and software, and automobile industry. The FDI inflows stood at $58.77 billion during 2021-22. Traders may take note of report that India is likely preparing for a drought-like situation despite the forecast for a normal monsoon, due to risks posed by El Nino. Banking stocks could be in focus today after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das pointed out lapses in the governance of some private banks. There will be some reaction in metal industry stocks as research firm Crisil Ratings said it expects the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of domestic steel manufacturers to stay below the level of 2 times in the financial year 2023-24. The steel makers had reported the ratio of net debt to EBITDA in the range of 1.6-1.7 times in preceding financial year (FY) 2022-23.


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