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NSE Intra-day chart (21 March 2023)
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Market Commentary 22 March 2023
Markets to make optimistic start on firm global cues


Indian equity markets witnessed a relief rally and logged strong gains on Tuesday, amid improved global sentiment. Benchmarks started the session on an optimistic note and stayed in green for the whole day, as sentiments got a boost with the Finance Ministry stating that Indian economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent in FY23 despite global headwinds. It noted that supported by the gains from high services exports, the moderation in oil prices, and the recent fall in import-intensive consumption demand, India's current account deficit is estimated to fall in FY23 and FY24, providing a buffer to the rupee in uncertain times. Some optimism also came with Minister of State for Finance Bhagwat K Karad stating that the government has taken various reforms following which asset quality of public sector banks has improved significantly with gross NPA ratio declining from the peak of 14.6 per cent in March 2018 to 5.53 per cent in December 2022.  Markets extended gains in second half of the session, taking support from the Retirement fund body, Employees' Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) latest Provisional Estimate of Net Payroll data report showing that India created 1485948 new jobs in the month of January 2023 as against revised figure of 1280613 in December 2022. Traders overlooked the Ministry of Labour and Employment's statement that retail inflation for agricultural and rural workers increased to 6.94 per cent and 6.87 per cent, respectively, in February 2023, due to increases in prices of medicines, doctor's fees, and bus fares, among others. Traders also paid no heed towards a private report stating that India's economic activity held steady in February though there were early signs of slowing consumption amid concerns of future growth prospects and hawkish monetary policy.  Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 445.73 points or 0.77% to 58,074.68 and the CNX Nifty was up by 119.10 points or 0.70% to 17,107.50.


The US markets ended higher on Tuesday on easing concerns about turmoil in the financial sector following recent steps taken to rescue distressed banks in the U.S. and Europe. Positive sentiment was also generated in reaction to remarks by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said the government is prepared to once again take action to protect bank depositors if smaller lenders are threatened. Meanwhile, traders continued to look ahead to the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. While the recent banking turmoil led to some speculation the Fed may leave interest rates unchanged, CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating an 86.4 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate hike. On the sectoral front, banking stocks turned in some of the market's best performances on the day, driving the KBW Bank Index up by 5.0 percent. The index continued to regain ground after ending last Friday's trading at its lowest closing level in well over two years. Substantial strength was also visible among energy stocks, with the Philadelphia Oil Service Index and the NYSE Arca Oil Index spiking by 3.5 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively. The rally by oil service stocks came as crude oil for May delivery jumped $1.85 to $69.67 a barrel, extending the rebound seen on Monday.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday amid improving risk sentiment thanks to the coordinated efforts by major central banks to rescue troubled U.S. and European banks. The dollar was quite subdued with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a meeting of key ministers from OPEC+, which includes OPEC members plus Russia and other allies, is scheduled for April 3. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery rose $1.69 or about 2.5 percent to settle at $69.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery gained $1.37 or about 1.86 percent to settle at $ 75.16 (provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


 Indian Rupee depreciated against the US dollar on Tuesday amid a rise in crude oil prices and unabated foreign fund outflows from the domestic equity market. Investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Traders overlooked Finance Ministry's statement that Indian economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent in FY23 despite global headwinds while retail inflation would moderate in line with wholesale inflation which fell to a 25-month low in January. On the global front, dollar steadied and sterling fell on Tuesday as traders reckoned banking stress would keep the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England from hiking rates much further, or at all, later in the week.  Finally, the rupee ended at 82.66 (Provisional), depreciate by 10 paise from its previous close of 82.56 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4717.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 6623.05 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1015.75 crore against gross selling of Rs 796.24 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 22.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.19 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as traders became optimistic on the financial sector's outlook following Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's reassurances to safeguard against further banking crises. Asian markets were trading in green in early deals on Wednesday following the broadly positive cues from global markets overnight. Indian equity markets ended higher on Tuesday led by Consumer Durables, Financial Services and Bankex stocks. Today, markets are likely to make positive start amid positive global market cues as investors await US Federal Reserve's rate hike decision which will be announced late evening today. Traders may get support as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its article has said unlike the global economy, India would not slow down and maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23. It said the NSO's end-February data release indicates that the Indian economy is intrinsically better positioned than many parts of the world to head into a challenging year ahead, mainly because of its demonstrated resilience and its reliance on domestic drivers. It said even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023 as global financial markets wager, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, with a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year. Traders may take note of report that the bank accounts of non-resident Indians (NRIs) received $5.95 billion during April 2022-January 2023, more than doubling from the $2.7 billion in the equivalent period in FY22. There may be some buzz in real estate sector related stocks as Colliers India and FICCI in report said that leasing of office space across six major cities may fall by 25-30 per cent this calendar year to 35-38 million square feet on subdued demand. These six cities are Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai and Pune. There may be some buzz in automobile industry related stocks as Union Minister of State for Heavy Industries Krishan Pal Gurjar said total sales of electric vehicles in the year 2022 stood at 10,15,196 as against 3,27,976 in the previous year 2021. Total 2,56,980 EVs have been registered in the current year till March 15. Moreover, Tyre industry related stocks might be in focus as private report stated domestic tyre industry is expected to witness double-digit growth next fiscal with the automobile industry back on full swing.


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