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Market Commentary 16 May 2022
Benchmarks to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks reversed early gains and ended the day with marginal losses on Friday on late selling pressure in Metal, Utilities & Telecom stocks. With this, the markets ended lower for the sixth straight day despite upbeat global mood. Key gauges made gap-up opening, as traders took support with the finance ministry stated that measures taken by the RBI and government will squeeze the duration of high inflation fuelled by global factors. It also said evidence on consumption patterns further suggests that inflation in India has a lesser impact on low-income strata than on high-income groups. Traders also found some solace after commerce ministry said India's merchandise exports surged 30.7 per cent to $40.19 billion in April on account of healthy performance by sectors like petroleum products, electronic goods and chemicals, even as trade deficit widened to $20.11 billion during the month. However, key indices came under fag-end selling pressure to close in the red as risk-off sentiment prevailed amid unabated selling by foreign institutional investors and concerns over inflation. Traders also got anxious with data showing that India's retail inflation surged to an eight-year high of 7.79 percent in April, raising the prospect of another interest rate hike from the RBI in the next policy meeting in June. Besides, Industrial production growth remained subdued at 1.9 per cent in March compared to a year ago, mainly due to poor performance by the manufacturing sector which showed staggered impact of the third wave of the pandemic. Some concern also came as the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $28.05 billion to $607.31 billion at the end of March this year from $635.36 billion at the end of September 2021. Sentiment was also weighed down by higher oil prices, which pressure the trade and current account deficits of India - the world's third-largest importer and consumer of oil. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 136.69 points or 0.26% to 52,793.62 and the CNX Nifty was down by 25.85 points or 0.16% to 15,782.15.

 

The US markets ended sharply higher on Friday as traders once again looked to go bargain hunting following the sharp decline shown by the markets over the past month. The markets have shrugged off a report from the University of Michigan showing consumer sentiment has deteriorated by much more than expected in the month of May. The report showed the consumer sentiment index tumbled to 59.1 in May from 65.2 in April. Street had expected the index to edge down to 64.0. With the much bigger than expected decrease, the consumer sentiment index slumped to its lowest level since hitting 55.8 in August of 2011. A separate report released by the Labor Department showed imports prices were unexpectedly unchanged in the month of April. The Labor Department said import prices came in flat in April after surging by an upwardly revised 2.9 percent in March. Street had expected import prices to climb by 0.6 percent compared to the 2.6 percent jump originally reported for the previous month. The report also showed the annual rate of growth in imports prices slowed to 12.0 percent in April from an upwardly revised 13.0 percent in March. On the sectoral front, semiconductor stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, extending the modest rebound seen over the course of the previous session. Significant strength was also visible among airline stocks, as reflected by the 5 percent spike by the NYSE Arca Airline Index. The index bounced off a two-month closing low. Oil service stocks also turned in a strong performance on the day, moving sharply higher along with the price of crude oil.

 

Crude oil futures closed significantly higher on Friday as fears of supply shortage outweighed concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth. Worries about supply in global oil markets have increased following a reduction in flows of Russian refined products such as diesel, fuel oil and naptha. Gasoline prices soared to record highs, contributing significantly to the sharp jump in crude oil prices. Following Russia's move to impose sanctions on more than 30 EU, US and Singaporean energy companies, the necessity to secure alternative gas supplies has now become the top priority. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery surged $4.36 or 4.1% percent to settle at $110.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for July delivery rose $4.03 or 3.75 percent to settle at $111.48 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Friday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Traders took some support with commerce ministry statement that India's merchandise exports surged 30.7 per cent to $40.19 billion in April on account of healthy performance by sectors like petroleum products, electronic goods and chemicals, even as trade deficit widened to $20.11 billion during the month. However, upside remain capped as India's retail inflation surged to an eight-year high of 7.79 percent in April, raising the prospect of another interest rate hike from the RBI in the next policy meeting in June. Besides, Industrial production growth remained subdued at 1.9 per cent in March compared to a year ago, mainly due to poor performance by the manufacturing sector which showed staggered impact of the third wave of the pandemic. On the global front, euro hovered near its weakest point since early 2017 on Friday after Russian sanctions led to disruptions in gas supplies to Europe, renewing fears about an economic slowdown in the euro zone. Finally, the rupee ended at 77.47 (Provisional), stronger by 3 paise from its previous close of 77.50 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5714.13 crore against gross selling of Rs 10524.02 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 632.50 crore with gross sales of Rs 972.92 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 55.56 crore against gross selling of Rs 57.34 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday as relief at signs of peaking inflation vied with fears that policy tightening by the Fed could tilt the world's largest economy into recession. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday after shockingly weak data from China underlines the deep damage lockdowns were doing to the world's second largest economy. Indian markets continued to fall for the sixth session in a row on Friday, dragged by financial and metal stocks though FMCG, oil & gas and auto shares limited the downside. Today, the markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the comprehensive trade agreement between India and the UAE will help in creating huge job opportunities and boost growth of the domestic economy. The bilateral pact is expected to increase the bilateral trade in goods to over $100 billion and trade in services to over $15 billion within five years. Some support will come as data provided by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed that in one of the largest expansions in the labour market since the beginning of the pandemic, 8.8 million people joined the country's workforce in April. However, some cautiousness may come as investors will be closely monitoring the wholesale price index (WPI) reading for April to be released later in the day, after retail inflation for the month came to an eight-year high of 7.8 per cent. Traders may be concerns as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that India's forex reserves declined by $1.774 billion to $595.954 billion for the week ended May 6 on the back of a fall in the core currency assets. Insurance industry stocks will be in focus as data from IRDAI showed the gross premium income of non-life insurance companies grew nearly 24 per cent to Rs 21,326.58 crore in April. The non-life insurance companies had a gross premium business worth Rs 17,251.10 crore in April 2021. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks as the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said imports of vegetable oils, comprising edible and non-edible oils, fell 13 per cent to nearly 9.12 lakh tonnes during April due to lower import of crude palm oil. It added import of vegetable oils stood at 9,11,846 tonnes in April 2022 compared to 10,53,347 tonnes in April 2021. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

15,782.15

15,654.14

15,996.89

BSE Sensex

52,793.62

52,370.43

53,501.25

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

714.25

404.00

387.55

419.90

State Bank of India

614.03

440.50

427.84

465.09

NTPC

229.13

144.50

142.00

148.50

Hindalco Industries

170.07

386.20

375.95

405.45

ICICI Bank

157.17

676.40

666.80

694.20

 

  • Tata Motors' consolidated net loss narrowed to Rs 992.05 crore for Q4FY22 as compared to net loss of Rs 7,585.34 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T construction has bagged contract for water & effluent treatment business. 
  • Bharti Airtel has added 22,55,629 customers in March, 2022. 
  • State Bank of India has reported 37.46% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 9,993.76 crore for Q4FY22 as compared to Rs 7,270.25 crore for Q4FY21.
News Analysis