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NSE Intra-day chart (15 March 2023)
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Market Commentary 16 March 2023
Benchmarks to get cautious start amid mixed global cues


Indian benchmark indices erased their initial gains to end lower for the fifth straight session on Wednesday amid unabated selling pressure in select index heavyweights like Bharti Airtel, Indusind Bank and Reliance Industries. Earlier in the session, the indices made a gap-up start tracing positive global cues. Traders got some encouragement as Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said the government is taking steps to make India a $5 trillion economy earlier than the International Monetary Fund's forecast year of 2026-27. Some support also came with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the country's goods and services exports are marching ahead to cross $750 billion in the current financial year (FY23) and talks for expanding rupee trade with certain countries are at an advanced stage. Sentiments remained positive in afternoon deals with Anurag Jain, the secretary in the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), stating that inclusion and equity are important for India to transform into a developed nation, with technology aiding this growth. However, gains remain capped amid foreign fund outflows. However, markets reversed all of their initial gains in late afternoon session and ended near day's low points amid foreign fund outflows. Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 3,086.96 crore on March 14, the National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed. Traders also turned cautious amid a private report stating that venture capital (VC) funding for Indian startups has taken a sharp cut. It dropped to $25.7 billion in 2022 from $35.8 billion in 2021 as the global economy experienced turbulence. Some anxiety also came with another private report stating that hiring intentions will remain marginally lower during the second quarter (April-June) this year as employers continue to have difficulty in finding people with the right skills. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 344.29 points or 0.59% to 57,555.90 and the CNX Nifty was down by 71.15 points or 0.42% to 16,972.15.


The US markets came off the session's losses but ended mostly in red on Wednesday on worries of more bank failures. In addition to ongoing concerns about turmoil in the financial sector following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, short-term debt woes of Swiss lender Credit Suisse contributed to the bearish sentiment in the market. Credit Suisse shares fell nearly 25 percent in the Swiss market after Saudi National Bank, the bank's largest investor, reportedly said it would not provide anymore funding to the Swiss lender. JP Morgan Chase fell nearly 5 percent. Chevron, Boeing, Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs, Travelers Companies and Honeywell International ended lower by 3 to 4.6 percent. On the economic data front, after reporting a sharp increase in U.S. retail sales in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report showing sales pulled back by slightly more than expected in the month of February. The Commerce Department said retail sales fell by 0.4 percent in February after spiking by an upwardly revised 3.2 percent in January. Street had expected retail sales to decrease by 0.3 percent compared to the 3.0 percent surge originally reported for the previous month. Besides, producer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly edged slightly lower in the month of February, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand slipped by 0.1 percent in February after rising by a downwardly revised 0.3 percent in January. Street had expected producer prices to increase by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.7 percent advance originally reported for the previous month.


Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Wednesday, magnifying their losses from previous session as traders feared a brewing banking crisis could dent global economic growth.  Crude oil prices plunged to their lowest level since December 2021, amid rising concerns about global economic growth and worries about the outlook for energy demand. Further, data showing an increase in U.S. crude inventories hurt oil prices. Data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.55 million barrels during the week ended March 10. Besides, the IEA said in its report that oil has been accumulating in storage tanks as supply has been strong and demand has remained slack. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery fell $3.72 or 5.22 percent to $67.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery dropped $3.09 or 3.99 percent to $74.36 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee tumbled against dollar on Wednesday amid a strong greenback against major currencies overseas and unabated foreign fund outflows. Traders ignored reports that India's trade deficit came in at $17.43 billion in February 2023, which is narrower as compared to $18.75 billion in the year-ago period. The numbers are also marginally lower as compared to the preceding month, as the trade deficit stood at $17.76 billion in January 2023. On the global front, British pound edged lower against the dollar on Wednesday, but remained close to a one-month high, ahead of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's Spring Budget. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.62 (Provisional), weaker by 25 paise from its previous close of 82.37 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7423.79 crore against gross selling of Rs 9632.63 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1206.94 crore against gross selling of Rs 427.98 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.46 crore against gross selling of Rs 7.66 crore.


The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday as problems at Credit Suisse revived fears of a banking crisis, eclipsing bets on a smaller US rate hike this month. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Thursday as fear of a banking crisis was reignited by fresh troubles at Credit Suisse, leaving markets on edge ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later in the day. Indian markets surrendered early gains and ended lower for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday amid unabated foreign fund outflows. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start as investors may react to mixed global cues, trade balance data, plummeting bond yields and tumbling oil prices. There will be some volatility in the markets amid weekly F&O expiry later in the day. Global sentiment remains weak amid signs that the U.S. banking crisis is spreading to Europe. Fear amongst investors emanating from a fresh turmoil at the Credit Suisse Group as a top shareholder refused additional financial assistance. Back home, there will be some cautiousness as the data released by the commerce ministry showed that India's exports dipped in February for the third consecutive month by 8.8 per cent to $33.88 billion against $37.15 billion in the same month last year. Imports also declined by 8.21 per cent to $51.31 billion as against $55.9 billion recorded in the corresponding month last year. The country's trade deficit in February stood at $17.43 billion. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent domestic sentiments. The National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,271.25 crore on March 15. However, some positivity may come in the market with IMF senior representative to India Luis Breuer stating that the RBI was doing the right thing on rate hikes, and added that there was need for more. Breuer also said the Budget's focus on prudence and fiscal consolidation was a good step that will reduce and stabilise public debt, which is quite high in the country compared to other G20 countries. Besides, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said the government is expected to release the new five-year foreign trade policy (FTP) by the end of this month, with a view to promoting the country's outbound shipments of goods and services. Aviation and paint company's stocks likely to be in limelight after oil prices slumped nearly 5 percent to their lowest level in more than a year overnight on recession fears. The edible oil industry stocks will be in focus as the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) India's edible oil imports rose 12 per cent year-on-year in February to 10.98 lakh tonnes on higher imports of crude palm oil. There will be some reaction in dairy industry stocks with report that total milk production in the country during 2021-22 is 221.06 million tonnes and registered an annual growth rate of 5.29 per cent.


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  • NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal for its group stations to meet domestic coal supply shortage during the first half of Financial Year 2023-24. 
  • IOC has received approval from board of directors for formation of a WoS in India, subject to approval of NITI Aayog, DIPAM etc. to operate in the domain of low carbon, new, clean and green energy businesses.
  • ICICI Bank is offering a comprehensive bouquet of digital and physical solutions to cater to all banking needs of startups across their various life stages.
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