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NSE Intra-day chart (09 February 2024)
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Market Commentary 12 February 2024
Benchmarks likely to open in green ahead of IIP, CPI data

In a volatile session, Indian equity markets managed to end in green on Friday aided by a rebound in banking stocks after yesterday's sell-off. Markets made a cautious start and remained sideways during the trading session, amid lackluster cues from global peers. Traders were cautious with provisional data from the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 4,933.78 crore on February 8. Some concern also came as crude oil prices gained on concerns of a broadening conflict in the Middle East after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas. However, headline indices recovered from early cuts in afternoon deals and managed to post mild gains as traders took support with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest Industrial outlook survey of the manufacturing sector for Q3:2023-24 stating that manufacturing companies reported positive demand conditions during Q3:2023-24 as reflected in their assessment of production, capacity utilisation, pending orders, employment and overall business situation but they were less sanguine when compared to the previous survey round. Some optimism also came with Rural Development Minister Giriraj Singh's statement that digitisation of land records and registration is expected to improve the GDP of the country by about 1.5 per cent. Traders took a note of report that ministries of finance, shipping as well as commerce and industry have discussed problems being faced by exporters due to the Red Sea crisis and the commerce ministry has suggested sharing specific matters for their resolution. There is no adverse impact on the country's exports due the crisis so far. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 167.06 points or 0.23% to 71,595.49 and the CNX Nifty was up by 64.55 points or 0.30% to 21,782.50.

The US markets ended mostly higher on Friday with Nasdaq settling over one percent higher.  The strength on markets partly reflected a positive reaction to data from the Labor Department showing a modest downward revision to consumer price growth in December. The revised data showed the consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in December compared to the previously reported 0.3 percent increase. Meanwhile, the increase by core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, was unrevised at 0.3 percent. While the revised data is not likely to have a major impact on the outlook for interest rates, the modest revision seemed to provide a jolt to tech stocks. Semiconductor stocks extended the rally seen over the two previous sessions, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up by 2.0 percent. Computer hardware and software stocks also saw considerable strength, with the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index and the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index climbing by 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. Outside of the tech sector, brokerage and retail stocks saw notable strength, while energy stocks moved to the downside despite a continued increase by the price of crude oil. Among individual stocks, Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) skyrocketed by 32.9 percent after reporting an unexpected fiscal first quarter profit on better than expected revenues.

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday, magnifying their recent sessions' gains after escalating Middle East tensions contributed to a significant rise in crude-oil benchmark prices over the past week. Meanwhile, the Brent crude price continued to rise on Friday, settling above the $82-a-barrel threshold after advancing over 6% over the past five trading sessions as Israel launched new air strikes in Gaza while rejecting a Hamas offer for a cease-fire in the region and return of hostages held in Gaza. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery surged $0.62 or about 0.8% to settle at $76.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery rose $0.56 or about 0.7% to $82.19 per barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.  

Indian rupee ended lower against the dollar on Friday tracking a strong American currency and elevated crude oil prices in the international market. Traders ignored Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest Industrial outlook survey of the manufacturing sector for Q3:2023-24 stating that manufacturing companies reported positive demand conditions during Q3:2023-24 as reflected in their assessment of production, capacity utilisation, pending orders, employment and overall business situation but they were less sanguine when compared to the previous survey round. On the global front, the dollar headed for a fourth weekly gain on Friday, pushing the yen to a 10-month low, as traders dialled back bets on how quickly the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates and how soon the Federal Reserve will cut them. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.03 (Provisional), weaker by 7 paise from its previous close of 82.96 on Thursday.

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 16241.59 crore against gross selling of Rs 20286.43 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2783.21 crore with gross sales of Rs 128.87 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 16.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 18.21 crore.

The US markets ended mostly in green on Friday with boosts from megacaps and chip stocks, including Nvidia as investors bet on artificial intelligence technology and eyed strong earnings data. Asian markets are mostly closed Monday including Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, while Jakarta is trading in green. China remains shut for the week. Indian markets ended a volatile session marginally in green on Friday amid lack of directional cues and dashed hopes of an early rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. Today, markets are likely to open in green tracking positive cues from Wall Street. Traders will be eyeing major macroeconomic data starting with Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January and India Industrial Production (IIP) for December to be out later in the day, for more directional cues. Easing crude oil prices likely to support domestic markets. Oil prices fell in early Asian trade after Israel said it had concluded a series of strikes in southern Gaza, slightly easing concerns about supply from the Middle East. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. Provisional data from the NSE showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 141.95 crore on February 9. Sentiments will get a boost as the finance ministry data showed that direct tax collections grew 20.25 per cent till February 10 of the current financial year (FY24), which is more than the 17.24 per cent pegged in the revised estimates (RE) for the entire year. At Rs 15.60 trillion, the direct tax receipts till Saturday constituted 80.23 per cent of Rs 19.45 trillion projected in the RE for FY24. However, muted trading elsewhere in Asia on account of Lunar New Year holidays, likely to cap upside. Traders may take note of Piyush Goyal's statement that India may not get the same amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the current financial year as compared to FY23, but I don't see it as a material factor. There will be some buzz in fertilizer industry stocks as a private data showed that India's urea production increased by over 12 per cent in the first nine months of the current financial year (FY24), while imports were marginally less than last year and sales remained flat. Urea is the largest consumed fertilizer in India followed by DAP. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus with report that the centre has released about Rs 15,948 crore under different schemes in the last five years till January 31 to various sugar mills to improve their liquidity for clearing cane price dues of farmers. There will be some reaction in hotel industry stocks with a private report that the hotel industry continued to experience year-on-year growth in performance in the October-December period of 2023, driven primarily by a 14.6 per cent increase in Average Daily Rate ADR compared to the year-ago period, which led to a RevPAR growth of 15.8 per cent. Meanwhile, investors will also react to Q3 earnings of ONGC, Mamaearth and Hero Moto, among others.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)


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  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone's wholly owned subsidiary -- Shanti Sagar International Dredging has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary company Poseidon Leasing IFSC.
  • Tech Mahindra has successfully implemented the greenfield digital MVNE (Mobile Virtual Network Enabler) platform for Sunrise.
  • Grasim Industries has reported 41.56% fall in consolidated net profit at Rs 2603.43 crore for Q3FY24 as compared to Rs 4454.59 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Bharti Airtel has launched four new, next-gen Company owned stores in the city of Nagpur.

News Analysis