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Market Commentary 11 August 2022
Markets likely to make gap-up opening on firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks traded in a narrow range with a negative bias for most part of the trading session and ended on a flat note on Wednesday as investors kept their exposure low due to weak global cues. After opening on a positive note, the markets turned choppy through the session, after the latest Union Health Ministry data showed that India Wednesday recorded 16,047 new coronavirus cases and 54 fatalities including six reconciled by Kerala. With these additions, the country's overall Covid figures rose to 4,41,90,697 cases and 5,26,826 deaths. Traders remained cautious with data released by Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showing that equity mutual funds attracted Rs 8,898 crore in July, a 43 per cent decline compared to the preceding month as markets continued to remain volatile amid concerns over inflation and rate hike expectations. Some concern came with a private report stated that growth in job postings remained flat at 1 per cent in July amidst fears of global recession and inflation, several sectors saw improvement due to digitisation and changing consumer sentiments. Though, downside remained capped as traders found some support with a private report stated that the Indian economy is likely to grow by 7.1% in the current fiscal on the back of steady performance by services, manufacturing and the farm sector. It added that the government investment will play a crucial role in boosting the growth rate. Some support also came in as finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has initiated measures to promote the rupee as a preferred currency for international trade settlement, which will boost exports. Besides, Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said negotiations between India and the UK for a FTA is moving at a fast pace, allaying concerns that the evolving political situation in Britain may slow down the pace of talks. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 35.78 points or 0.06% to 58,817.29 and the CNX Nifty was up by 9.65 points or 0.06% to 17,534.75.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday after a key inflation reading showed a better-than-expected slowdown for rising prices. The Labor Department released a report showing US consumer prices unexpectedly came in flat in the month of July. The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged in July after jumping by 1.3 percent in June. Street had expected consumer prices to edge up by 0.2 percent. Compared to the same month a year ago, consumer prices in July were up by 8.5 percent, reflecting a bigger than expected slowdown from the 9.1 percent spike in June. The annual rate of price growth was expected to slow to 8.7 percent from the four-decade high seen in the previous month. Meanwhile, the report said core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose by 0.3 percent in July after climbing by 0.7 percent in June. Core prices were expected to increase by 0.5 percent. The annual rate of core consumer price growth was unchanged at 5.9 percent, while economists had expected an acceleration to 6.1 percent. The tamer than expected inflation data has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes at its September meeting. On the sectoral front, Semiconductor stocks showed a substantial rebound after pulling back sharply in recent sessions, resulting in a 4.3 percent spike by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Considerable strength was also visible among computer hardware stocks, as reflected by the 4 percent surge by the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index. The index ended the session at its best closing level in two months. Networking stocks also turned in a strong performance on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Networking Index up by 3.6 percent to a three-month closing high.  

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Wednesday after data showing a bigger-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories in the US in the week ended August 5th. Gasoline stockpiles dropped by 4.978 million barrels last week, substantially larger than the expected drop of 633,000 barrels.  Further, a weak dollar and data showing increased demand for gasoline contributed as well to the surge in oil prices. The dollar index dropped to a low of 104.64 and despite recovering to 105.02, remains deep down in negative territory with a loss of about 1.25%.  However, data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil inventories jumped by 5.458 million barrels last week, as against expectations for a rise of 73,000 barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.43 or 1.6 percent to settle at $91.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for October delivery surged $1.09 or 1.1 percent to settle at $97.40 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended significantly higher against greenback on Wednesday owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Traders took support with Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal's statement that negotiations for the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the UK are progressing at a faster pace. He said the agreement is aimed at boosting bilateral trade and investments between the two countries. Additional support came, after the provisional exchange data showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the Indian capital market as they purchased shares worth Rs 1,449.70 crore on Monday. On the global front, dollar edged lower ahead of U.S. inflation data that could give clues to the Federal Reserve's appetite for more aggressive rate rises. Finally, the rupee ended at 79.50 (provisional), stronger by 13 paisa from its previous close of 79.63 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 15872.17 crore against gross selling of Rs 14298.66 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 219.28 crore against gross selling of Rs 328.77 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.11 crore against gross selling of Rs 113.18 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday after US inflation slowed more than expected in July and raised hopes the Fed will become less aggressive on interest rates hikes. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday following a strong session on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets finished a choppy session nearly unchanged on Wednesday as Dalal Street resumed trading after a day's holiday. Today, the markets are likely to make gap-up opening following firm global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement with a private report that India is likely to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in 2022-23. The report expect India's gross domestic product growth to average 7 per cent during this period - the strongest among the largest economies - and contributing 28 per cent and 22 per cent to Asian and global growth, respectively. Some support will come as the data released by the Reserve Bank of India showed that Bank credit grew 14.5 per cent year-on-year as on July 29, outstripping 14 per cent year-on-year growth as on July 15. As on July 29, banks' outstanding loans were at Rs 123.69 trillion, 0.7 per cent higher than a fortnight ago. Besides, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net bought shares worth Rs 1,061.88 crore, whereas domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 768.45 crore on August 10, as per provisional data available on the NSE. However, there may be some volatility in the markets due to weekly F&O expiry. There may be some cautiousness with another private report that Investments by private equity and venture capital funds into Indian entities fell by 69 per cent to $3 billion during July. The investments in July are the lowest for any month in a year, and lower than the $4.9 billion recorded across 118 deals in the preceding month of June. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday tightened norms for digital lending to prevent charging of exorbitant interest rates by certain entities and also check unethical loan recovery practices. Aviation industry stocks will be in focus as the Union Aviation Ministry said limits imposed on domestic airfares will be removed from August 31, after a span of approximately 27 months.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,534.75

17,463.00

17,586.30

BSE Sensex

58,817.29

58,605.66

59,006.62

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

738.80

109.20

107.16

110.56

Hindalco Industries

237.66

440.10

423.00

450.80

ICICI Bank

236.58

849.15

843.20

854.05

State Bank of India

169.04

513.90

510.36

520.46

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

158.29

133.90

132.65

135.95

 

  • Hindalco Industries has reported a rise of 47.79% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 4,119 crore for Q1FY23 as compared to Rs 2,787 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 
  • Tata Motors has launched the Tigor XM iCNG variant at an attractive price point of Rs 7,39,900 (ex-showroom price, Delhi). 
  • L&T's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured an order from Nuclear Power Corporation of India for its Heavy Civil Infrastructure Business. 
  • M&M has launched the New Jeeto Plus CNG CharSau, an addition to its existing Jeeto Plus range that promises to set new standards in fuel efficiency and mileage.
News Analysis