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NSE Intra-day chart (15 November 2021)
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Market Commentary 16 November 2021
Markets likely to continue gaining momentum with positive start


Indian equity benchmarks ended flat with positive bias on Monday, failing to sustain gains made earlier in the day. The benchmarks staged a gap opening, as sentiments got a boost as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said Indian economy is back in action and it is clear from several indicators such as rising exports and increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the country. Some support also came with outgoing chief economic advisor K V Subramanian's statement that Indian economy is expected to see a double-digit growth in 2021-22 and between 6.5-7 per cent in the next financial year. He said that he does not expect commodity inflation will taper the V-shaped recovery going forward. Sentiments remained positive with Sebi chief Ajay Tyagi's statement that the decision to implement a shorter settlement system in a phased manner beginning February 2022 will go a long way in protecting investors' interest. However, profit booking at higher levels led to the benchmarks coming off intraday highs. Traders got anxious with data showing that retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up to 4.48 per cent in October compared to 4.35 per cent in September, due to an uptick in food prices. Though, it eased compared with 7.61 per cent in October 2020. Besides, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) indicating industrial growth slipped to 3.1 per cent in September, mainly due to the waning low base effect while mining and manufacturing sectors performed well. Some pessimism also came as WPI inflation in October surged to 12.54% from 10.66% a month ago and 1.31% in October 2020. The high rate of inflation in October 2021 is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, food products, crude petroleum & natural gas, chemicals and chemical products etc as compared the corresponding month of the previous year. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 32.02 points or 0.05% to 60,718.71 and the CNX Nifty was up by 6.70 points or 0.04% to 18,109.45.


The US markets ended marginally lower on Monday as traders expressed some uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets. Concerns about inflation continued to weigh on investors' minds after last week's report showing consumer prices increased at their fastest annual rate in over thirty years in October. The elevated pace of inflation has led to worries that the Federal Reserve might be forced to accelerate its plans to begin tightening monetary policy. However, the Fed has repeatedly described the factors driving inflation as transitory and signaled that it will not be in a hurry to start raising interest rates. On the economic data front, the New York Federal Reserve released a report showing New York manufacturing activity grew strongly in the month of November. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index jumped to 30.9 in November from 19.8 in October, with a positive reading indicating growth. Street had expected the index to rise to 21.6. Meanwhile, the report said firms were less optimistic about the six-month outlook than they were last month, with the index for future business conditions tumbling to 36.9 in November from 52.0 in October.


Crude oil futures ended marginally higher on Monday after plunging earlier in the session amid expectations of higher supplies and weakening demand. The dollar's climb to a 16-month high also weighed on oil prices early on in the session. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has called on the OPEC+ alliance to turn on the taps and bring down crude prices. However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE signaled that they will continue raising oil output cautiously and will not bow to US pressure to pump faster. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery gained 9 cents or 0.1 percent to settle at $ 80.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for January delivery lost 12 cents or 0.2 percent to settle at $82.05 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Monday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Sentiments were downbeat as WPI inflation in October surged to 12.54% from 10.66% a month ago and 1.31% in October 2020. However, downfall remain capped as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the proposed free trade agreements (FTAs) with countries, including Australia, the UK and the UAE, are moving at a fast pace and these pacts, when implemented, would help provide greater market access to domestic goods. On the global front, pound was steady in early trading on Monday, lagging behind other risk-related currencies, as investors focused on talks over post-Brexit trade arrangements for Northern Ireland, ahead of market data later in the week. Finally, the rupee ended 74.50 (provisional), weaker by 5 paise from its previous close of 74.45 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11923.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 9475.49 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1795.40 crore with gross sales of Rs 476.56 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 248.07 crore against gross selling of Rs 40.14 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Monday as rising Treasury yields dented the appetite for technology stocks. Asian markets are trading in green on Tuesday as U.S. stock futures made early gains, though investors were wary of bearish surprises in a batch of Chinese economic data due out later. Indian markets made mild gains in a volatile session as gains in IT, pharma and consumer stocks were offset by losses in oil & gas, metal and automobile scrips. Today, benchmarks likely to continue their gaining momentum with flat-to-positive start tracking gains in Asian peers. Traders will be taking encouragement as merchandise exports grew for the eleventh consecutive month to $35.65 billion, up 43 per cent on-year in October, as external demand continued to remain robust. The preliminary data released by the commerce and industry ministry showed growth being driven by higher demand for items, primarily engineering goods, petroleum products, gems and jewellery, as well as organic and inorganic chemicals, among other items. Some support will come as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its 'state of the economy' report stated that the aggregate demand in the economy is improving and overall monetary and credit conditions are conducive for a durable economic recovery to take root, while the quality of the government expenditure has seen an improvement in the second half. Traders may take note of Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the Centre would release double the monthly amount of tax devolution -- a total of Rs 95,082 crore -- in November to enable the states to step up their capex and spur economic growth close to double digits this fiscal year. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remained net buyer of the US currency in September 2021, after it purchased $791 million on the net basis from the spot market. The monthly RBI bulletin for November 2021 showed in the reporting month, the central bank had bought $9.169 billion and sold $8.378 billion in the spot market. There will be some reaction in aviation industry stocks with a private report stating that with a surge in domestic air passenger traffic, the airfares have risen by 30 per cent to 100 per cent of the pre-pandemic levels amid the festive season. Besides, Tarsons Products IPO sailed through on the first day of sale on Monday. The public issue of the company saw massive interest from retail investors who subscribed their portion of the issue 2.12 times.


                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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  • Maruti Suzuki India is planning to drive in CNG trims across its product range as it remains bullish over the long-term prospects of the segment amid an increase in fuel prices and a drop in diesel car sales. 
  • HCL Technologies is bringing technology, digital innovation and new jobs to the Northeast with the opening of its Global Delivery Center in Hartford.   
  • TCS has worked alongside Juniper Networks, a leader in secure, AI-driven networks, to successfully roll out a new service platform to deliver superior experiences to its customers and partners. 
  • HDFC Bank has completed its integration with the Government of India's National Agriculture Market to enable digital collections and settlement of funds to various e-NAM beneficiaries.
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