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NSE Intra-day chart (30 August 2023)
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Market Commentary 31 August 2023
Markets to open in green on positive global cues; GDP data eyed


Shedding most of the gains made during the day, Indian equity benchmarks ended flat on Wednesday as investors remained on sidelines ahead of domestic GDP (gross domestic product) data for the April-June quarter, scheduled to be released post-market hours on Thursday. Markets made the gap up opening and stayed in green for better part of the day, as traders took support with report that the Centre is likely to infuse capital in certain regional rural banks (RRBs) during 2023-24, depending on their performance and adoption of digitisation. Sentiments remained up-beat as RBI data showed that interrupting a two-month streak of decline, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) rose sequentially to $1.85 billion in July over $1.07 billion in June, an increase of 73 per cent. Some support came as BSE data showing that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 61.51 crore. However, key gauges witnessed profit booking in the last hour. Markets give up all their gains and closed flat. Traders also turned cautious with CARE Ratings' report stating that the erratic monsoon, which is affecting sowing, and global developments will keep the food inflation at elevated levels and would also hit the demand in rural India owing to lower income and inflation. Some anxiety also came as rating agency ICRA stating that the information technology (IT) services industry's revenue growth will likely slow down to 3-5 per cent in this financial year (FY24) due to persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and weak demand in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has proposed to halve the issue size for tapping social stock exchanges (SSEs) and bring down the minimum application amount from Rs 2 lakh to Rs 10,000. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 11.43 points or 0.02% to 65,087.25 and the CNX Nifty was up by 4.80 points or 0.02% to 19,347.45.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday following the release of a report from payroll processor ADP showing a notable slowdown in the pace of private sector job growth in the month of August. ADP said private sector employment climbed by 177,000 jobs in August after surging by an upwardly revised 371,000 jobs in July. Street had expected private sector employment to advance by 195,000 jobs compared to the jump of 324,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. The slightly smaller than expected increase in private sector employment added to recent optimism about the outlook for interest rates. Meanwhile, pending home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in the month of July, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed in a report released. NAR said its pending home sales index climbed by 0.9 percent to 77.6 in July after rising by 0.4 percent to a revised 76.9 in June. Street had expected pending home sales to decrease by 0.6 percent compared to the 0.3 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month. Pending home sales increased for the second consecutive month but were still down by 14.0 percent compared to the same month a year ago. On the sectoral front, housing stocks saw considerable strength on the day, resulting in a 1.2 percent advance by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. The strength in the sector came after the National Association of Realtors released a report showing an unexpected increase in pending home sales in the month of July.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday after data showed a big drop in U.S. crude inventories in the week ended August 25. Data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories in the U.S. dropped by 10.584 million barrels last week after a 6.135 million barrels decline a week earlier. Gasoline inventory declined by 0.214 million barrels last week, much less than an expected drop of 0.933 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles increased by 1.235 million barrels in the week. Besides, the dollar's continued weakness and the impact of Hurricane Idalia on operations in oil fields along Florida's Gulf Coast raised supply concerns and contributed as well to the increase in oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery gained $0.47 or about 0.6 percent to settle at $81.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for October delivery surged $0.37 or 0.43 percent to settle at $85.86 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian Rupee ended higher against the US dollar on Wednesday amid FII inflows into the capital market. Traders got support as RBI data showed that interrupting a two-month streak of decline, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) rose sequentially to $1.85 billion in July over $1.07 billion in June, an increase of 73 per cent. Investors overlooked CARE Ratings stating that the erratic monsoon, which is affecting sowing, and global developments will keep the food inflation at elevated levels and would also hit the demand in rural India owing to lower income and inflation. On the global front, U.S. dollar on Wednesday clawed back some of the previous session's sharp declines as investors looked ahead to more labour market data for clues on the path for Federal Reserve policy. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.72 (Provisional), stronger by 8 paise from its previous close of 82.80 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10675.01 crore against gross selling of Rs 9882.24 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2576.78 crore with gross sales of Rs 1196.54 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 19.71 crore against gross selling of Rs 15.36 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday as fresh economic data signalled a cooling U.S. economy, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes in September. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday as investors brace for China's August factory activity data. Indian markets gave up all gains on Wednesday and ended flat, dragged by financials. Today, markets likely to get positive start on firm global cues. Traders will be eyeing on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to be out later in the day for more cues. There are expectations that India's economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the April-June quarter, driven by services and manufacturing. Some support will come as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Indian inflation will remain steady in coming months, despite short-term rises in the prices of certain food items. Traders may take note of a private report that the cut in LPG prices is likely to bring down this financial year's inflation by 10-30 basis points (bps), with a 20-30 basis points decline in September alone. However, there may be some volatility in the markets ahead of monthly F&O expiry later in the day. Some cautiousness may come amid foreign fund outflows. According to the provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth net Rs 494.68 crore on August 30. Meanwhile, in a move aimed at fostering a positive business atmosphere and enticing a greater number of reinsurers to set up their operations in India, the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai) has granted its approval to a series of modifications in the reinsurance regulations during its 123rd authority meeting. Textile industry stocks will be in focus with Crisil's report that home textile industry's revenues are expected to rise 7-9 per cent this fiscal as the sector regains global share following a correction in domestic cotton prices and restocking by big-box retailers in major overseas markets. There will be some reaction in fertilizer stocks with a private report that fertiliser sales in India are expected to increase during the upcoming rabi season after a spell of insufficient monsoon rain in several parts of the country forced farmers to curb purchases. Steel, pharma stocks will be in limelight as the government is expected to extend export benefits under the RoDTEP scheme to iron and steel, chemicals and pharmaceutical sectors beyond September 30.


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