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NSE Intra-day chart (30 January 2023)
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Market Commentary 31 January 2023
Markets likely to get flat-to-positive start ahead of Economic survey


Indian equity benchmarks ended higher in a highly volatile trade on Monday on the back of recovery in IT, TECK and Telecom stocks. Key gauges made a negative start but soon turned positive as traders took support with latest data showing that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) foreign exchange reserves climbed $1.7 billion to $573.73 billion in the week ended January 20.  The rise was on account of an increase in the RBI's foreign currency assets as well as its gold holdings. But, markets failed to hold gains and slipped into red terrain in late morning deals, as market participants remained on sidelines ahead of crucial Union Budget to be presented on February 01 and a slew of central bank policy meetings due this week. Key gauges extended fall in late afternoon deals, as sentiments remained downbeat amid a private report stating that foreign investors have pulled out a net of over Rs 17,000 crore this month so far due to the attractiveness of the Chinese markets and the cautious stance adopted by them ahead of the Union Budget and US Federal Reserve meeting. The outflow in January came after a net inflow of Rs 11,119 crore in December and Rs 36,239 crore in November. However, markets erased all of their initial losses towards the end and settled higher.  Meanwhile, calling for the creation of an international network of mentors, investors and entrepreneurs to strengthen the global startup ecosystem, Union Minister for Commerce and Industry, Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Textiles, Piyush Goyal has said that this network must support and inspire startups, act as a team to facilitate exchange of ideas, best practices and funding mechanisms and promote collaborations in Research and Development. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 169.51 points or 0.29% to 59,500.41 and the CNX Nifty was up by 44.60 points or 0.25% to 17,648.95.


The US markets ended lower on Monday, whit Nasdaq settling around two percent cut, ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The Fed's two-day meeting gets underway on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to slow the pace of interest rate hikes to 25 basis points. Traders will pay close attention to the accompanying statement for clues about the outlook for further rate hikes. Recent upbeat economic data has generated some optimism the Fed could engineer a soft landing but has also led to concerns the central bank will need to keep rates at elevated levels for longer than anticipated. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also scheduled to announce their rate decisions this week. It is expected that both BoE and ECB will hike interest rates by 50 basis points. Investors also focused on earnings reports, amid concerns the economy may be facing a recession. With more than 140 companies having reported so far, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 3% in the fourth quarter compared with the prior-year period, according to private report. Apple, Amazon and Alphabet lost 2 percent, 1.6 percent, and 2.5 percent, respectively. Meta Platforms drifted down about 3 percent. Microsoft, Chevron, 3M, Walt Disney, United Health and Caterpillar also ended notably lower.


Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Monday on concerns about global economic growth and the outlook for oil demand. Meanwhile, traders were looking ahead to a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) this week. The group is largely expected to maintain production at current levels. However, Oil prices found some support earlier in the session on reports about a drone strike on an Iranian defense facility over the weekend. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery fell $1.78 or 2.2 percent at $77.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery dropped $2.07 or 2.4 percent at $84.33 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Monday amid decline in crude oil prices. Sentiments were upbeat with latest data showing that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) foreign exchange reserves climbed $1.7 billion to $573.73 billion in the week ended January 20. The rise was on account of an increase in the RBI's foreign currency assets as well as its gold holdings. On the global front, dollar languished near an eight-month low on Monday ahead of a slew of central bank meetings this week, while higher Spanish inflation data supported the euro ahead of euro area readings on Wednesday. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.50 (Provisional), stronger by 9 paise from its previous close of 81.59 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 12210.43 crore against gross selling of Rs 18346.69 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 607.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 1187.24 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 11.18 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Monday ahead of the US Fed meeting, which begins later tonight, and big corporate earnings. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday tracking overnight losses on Wall Street. Indian markets ended a highly volatile session on a positive note on Monday after a day of carnage, backed by technology and select banking & financial services stocks. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start as investors await the Economic Survey of 2022-23. The Economic Survey, an annual report released by the Finance Ministry with complete analysis of the economy and projections for economic growth, will be tabled in Parliament today. There are expectations that India's annual pre-budget economic survey is likely to peg GDP growth at 6-6.8% for 2023-24. Some support will come as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said inflation in India is expected to come down from 6.8 percent in the current fiscal year ending March 31 to 5 percent the next fiscal, and then drop further to 4 percent in 2024. Moreover, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist and Director, Research Department of the IMF said our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook. We have 6.8 percent growth for this current fiscal year, which runs until March, and then we're expecting some slowdown to 6.1 percent in fiscal year 2023. And that is largely driven by external factors. However, traders may be concerned as provisional data available on the NSE showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) have net-sold shares worth Rs 6,792.80 crore on January 30, 2023, the highest ever outflow in a single day since March 8, 2022. Cement industry stocks will be in focus as CARE Advisory and Research said with healthy demand drivers for cement - urban housing, government's infrastructure and rural development thrust, the industry is expected to close FY23 with a production of 380-390 million ton. Market participants continue to keep eye on earnings from many companies including Coal India, Power Grid Corporation of India, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, UPL, ACC, Godrej Consumer Products, Indian Hotels, Indian Oil Corporation, Jindal Steel & Power to release their results later in the day.


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  • Bharti Airtel's fintech arm -- Airtel Payments Bank has partnered with Delhi Metro to provide one more smart card top-up facility to commuters.
  • Coal India's subsidiary -- Mahanadi Coalfields has developed an eco-park and a museum over a closed underground mine. 
  • Hero MotoCorp has launched the new 110cc scooter - Xoom.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has acquired three anti-inflammatory brands from Mumbai-based Aksigen Hospital Care.
News Analysis