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NSE Intra-day chart (29 January 2024)
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Market Commentary 30 January 2024
Benchmarks to extend previous session's rally with optimistic start

Indian equity benchmarks experienced widespread buying and ended with gains of over one and half percent on Monday, in-tandem with a rally in Asian markets along with buying in blue chip firms Reliance Industries, Tata Motors and Power Grid Corporation. Markets made a positive start and extended gains as the day progressed as traders took support with Union Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi's statement that India will have surplus domestic coal by the financial year 2025-26 that can be used to run the imported coal-based (ICB) power plants. He asserted that the government is aiming at boosting domestic production and reducing fossil fuel imports. Traders took a note of private report stating that the commerce department is working towards setting up an export advisory panel, comprising senior industry officials, as part of India's strategy to promote the benefits of the free-trade agreements (FTAs) that have been signed and help exporters leverage them better. Sentiments remained up-beat in late afternoon deals, taking support from Union minister Ajay Bhatt's statement that India is becoming self-reliant in defence production, and for the first time, leading the top 25 countries in defence exports. Traders also remained optimistic, as lauding the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), Union Minister of Commerce & Industry, Piyush Goyal said that it has played a pivotal role in empowering the entrepreneurs to be self-reliant and be a part of the country's growth story and also emphasized that the PMJDY has propelled the country from being part of a fragile five to be the fifth largest economy in the world. Traders overlooked report that the India's foreign exchange reserves saw a dip of $2.79 billion to $616.14 billion for the week ending on January 19. Previously, forex reserves were up by $1.6 billion, dragging the reserves to $618.94 billion, for the week ended on January 12, 2024. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 1240.90 points or 1.76% to 71,941.57 and the CNX Nifty was up by 385.00 points or 1.80% to 21,737.60.

The US markets ended higher on Monday with Nasdaq settling over 1 percent. The strength that emerged on markets have reflected a notable pullback by treasury yields, with yields giving back ground after moving higher last Friday. Yields fell to new lows and stocks rallied late in the session as the Treasury Department reduced its estimates for first quarter borrowing. The Treasury said it expects to borrow $760 billion in the first quarter; $55 billion lower than forecast in October due to projections of higher net fiscal flows and a higher beginning of quarter cash balance. On the sectoral front, Software stocks showed a strong move to the upside over the course of the session, driving the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index up by 1.7 percent to a record closing high. Considerable strength also emerged among gold stocks, as reflected by the 1.5 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The strength in the sector came amid a modest increase by the price of gold. Biotechnology, networking and semiconductor stocks also moved notably higher as the day progressed, contributing to the surge by the tech-heavy Nasdaq. On the other hand, airline stocks moved sharply lower on the day, dragging the NYSE Arca Airline Index down by 2.2 percent.

Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Monday as concerns about the outlook for demand from China outweighed the ongoing geopolitical tensions due to the Middle East crisis. A firmer dollar weighed as well on oil prices. Fears of supply disruptions intensified following a drone attack on U.S. forces in Jordan over the weekend by Iran-backed militants, according to the U.S. President Joe Biden. Iran has denied involvement in the drone attack that killed three U.S. troops and left dozens injured. The drone attack raised concerns of a more direct confrontation between the two countries, potentially resulting in regional energy supply disruptions in the oil-rich Middle East. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery fell $1.23 or 1.6% to settle at $76.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery dropped $1.15 or 1.4% to $82.40 per barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.  

Indian rupee ended lower on Monday as rising crude oil prices in international markets and dollar demand from importers dented investor sentiments. Traders were cautious as report stated that India's foreign exchange reserves saw a dip of $2.79 billion to $616.14 billion for the week ending on January 19. Previously, forex reserves were up by $1.6 billion, dragging the reserves to $618.94 billion, for the week ended on January 12, 2024. Traders took note of former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that India needs to focus more on education and healthcare to become a developed economy by 2047. On the global front, dollar was steady on Monday as investors took stock of U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting this week, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept a lid on risk sentiment. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.16 (Provisional), weaker by 5 paise from its previous close of 83.11 on Thursday. The currency touched a high and low of 83.16 and 83.13 respectively.

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 43302.19 crore against gross selling of Rs 38232.31 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2430.79 crore with gross sales of Rs 2059.38 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 39.57 crore against gross selling of Rs 45.38 crore.

The US markets ended higher on Monday as market participants looked ahead to this week's slew of megacap earnings, economic data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday as investors continue to grapple with the fallout from Evergrande's liquidation order. Indian markets ended with strong gains on Monday with the help of rally in shares of Reliance Industries, L&T, HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, and Tata Motors amid firm global cues. Today, markets are likely to extend previous session's rally with optimistic start tracking strong gains overnight on Wall Street. Also, oil prices fell more than a dollar a barrel overnight as China's ailing property sector sparked demand worries, causing traders to reassess the supply risk premium from escalating tensions in the Middle East. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the cash segment after selling in the previous seven days, buying shares worth Rs 110.01 crore on January 29, provisional data from the NSE showed. Traders will take encouragement as the finance ministry said India is expected to become the third-largest economy in the world with a GDP of $5 trillion in the next three years and touch $7 trillion by 2030 on the back of continued reforms. Ten years ago, India was the 10th largest economy in the world, with a GDP of $1.9 trillion at current market prices. Ahead of the Interim Budget, a Finance Ministry report placed FY25 GDP growth close to 7 per cent despite new geopolitical risks such as the Red Sea crisis that could impact global inflation and economic output. However, there may be some cautiousness with report that wholesale prices of tur dal have increased 5% in the last one month despite the arrival of new crops and continuing imports from Myanmar as reduced acreage and decreased production for a second consecutive year impact supply. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus after sugar trade body AISTA projected the country's sugar production to be around 31.6 million tonnes for the 2023-24 season (October-September), about four per cent lower than the previous season. Meanwhile, shares of ITC, NTPC and Bajaj Finance will be in focus as traders react to their latest quarterly earnings. Meanwhile, Adani Total Gas, Bajaj Finserv, Dr.Reddy's, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahidra Finance, NDTV, PB Fintech, Strides Pharma, Star Health, VIP Industries and Voltas are few of the prominent companies scheduled to announce Q3 results on Tuesday. In primary market, BLS E Services Rs 311 crore IPO opens for subscription today. The offer period closes on February 01. Company to issue up to 2.30 crore fresh equity shares in the price band of Rs 129 - Rs 135 per share.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

21,737.60

21,523.71

21,857.36

BSE Sensex

71,941.57

71,211.34

72,341.02

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ONGC

541.28

254.85

244.31

260.16

HDFC Bank

328.23

1456.80

1447.46

1464.46

Tata Steel

297.45

135.05

133.90

135.80

Coal India

271.49

413.55

398.46

421.66

Power Grid

261.81

253.50

247.44

257.29

  • Coal India has bagged 300 MW capacity of Gujarat Industrial Power Corporation, RE park of 600 MW capacity at Khavda, grid connected SPV Project.
  • Tata Motors has delivered state-of-the-art Ultra EV air-conditioned electric buses to Jammu Smart City through TML Smart City Mobility Solutions (J&K), a Tata Motors Group company.
  • Bharti Airtel has launched fourteen new, next-gen Company owned stores in the city of Pune.
  • LIC has received an approval from RBI to acquire aggregate holding of up to 9.99% of the share capital or voting rights in HDFC Bank.

News Analysis