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Market Commentary 30 January 2023
Benchmarks likely to get positive start on Monday

 

Indian equity benchmarks witnessed steep selling pressure on Friday dragged down by Utilities, Power and Oil & Gas shares. Headline indices made a gap down opening and remained under pressure throughout the session amid continuous foreign fund outflows. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded shares worth Rs 2,393.94 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data. Sentiments were down-beat with a United Nations' report stating that global economic growth is projected to slow to 1.9% this year from an estimated 3% in 2022. The report blamed the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine, high inflation and the climate crisis. It said this would mark one of the lowest growth rates in recent decades. Investors also turned cautious ahead of the Union Budget 2023, which will be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1. Markets extended fall in afternoon deals, as traders were anxious with a private report stating that private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan continued their downward trajectory when 2022 closed. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, deals totaled $5.39 billion across 42 announced and completed transactions in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to $20.07 billion across 79 transactions in the same period in 2021. Traders also took a note of a study by market regulator SEBI showing that nine out of 10 individual traders in the equity F&O segment incurred net losses during both the years FY 2018-19 and FY 2021-22. There has been a significant increase of over 500 per cent in the number of individual traders in the equity F&O segment in FY 2021-22, as compared to FY 2018-19. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 874.16 points or 1.45% to 59,330.90 and the CNX Nifty was down by 287.60 points or 1.61% to 17,604.35.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday, boosted by hopes that inflation is moderating. Meanwhile, traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated monetary policy meeting next week. With the Fed widely expected to slow the pace of interest rate hikes to 25 basis points, traders will pay close attention to the accompanying statement for clues about the outlook for further rate hikes. Recent upbeat economic data has generated some optimism the Fed could engineer a soft landing but has also led to concerns the central bank will need to keep rates at elevated levels for longer than anticipated. Besides, all the major averages posted a positive week and are on pace for a month of gains. On the sectoral front, Transportation stocks showed a strong move to the upside on the day, driving the Dow Jones Transportation Average up by 1.3 percent. Notable strength was also visible among retail stocks, as reflected by the 1.2 percent gain posted by the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index. The index reached its best closing level in three months. On the U.S. economic front, the Commerce Department released a report showing personal income increased in line with street estimates in the month of December. The report said personal income inched up by 0.2 percent in December after rising by a downwardly revised 0.3 percent in November. Street had expected personal spending to edge up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said personal spending dipped by 0.2 percent in December after slipping by 0.1 percent in November. The modest decrease matched street estimates. The report also said core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose by 0.3 percent in December after inching up by 0.2 percent in November. The inflation reading, which is said to be preferred by the Fed, was expected to show another 0.2 percent uptick.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Friday on uncertainty about the outlook for oil demand. Profit taking after recent gains and indications that oil supply from Russia will see a surge weighed on oil prices. Meanwhile, OPEC and allies are scheduled to meet next week to review crude production levels. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, scheduled to take place on January 31 and February 1 is eyed as well. However, oil prices rose earlier in the session, riding on hopes about Chinese economic growth, and data showing a stronger than expected increase in U.S. GDP. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery fell $1.33 or 1.6 percent at $79.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery dropped $1.09 or 1.25 percent at $86.38 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee settled higher against dollar on last trading day of week despite weak domestic equities. Sentiments were positive even as United Nations' report said that global economic growth is projected to slow to 1.9% this year from an estimated 3% in 2022. The report blamed the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine, high inflation and the climate crisis. It said this would mark one of the lowest growth rates in recent decades. On the global front, dollar edged up on Friday to pull away from multi-month lows against the euro and sterling, as investors began to train their sights on a slew of major central bank meetings next week. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.53 (Provisional), stronger by 8 paise from its previous close of 81.61 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8101.95 crore against gross selling of Rs 8358.45 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1631.68 crore against gross selling of Rs 702.58 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.75 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday as a slew of economic data boosted optimism about the overall health of the world's largest economy. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday as investors looked ahead to the interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this week. Indian markets tumbled on Friday as Adani group shares and several bank stocks fell sharply on sustained selling right through the day's session. Today, markets are likely to get positive start on firm global cues. Investor will be eyeing the Union Budget to be presented later in the week. Some support will come as latest data showed that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) foreign exchange reserves climbed $1.7 billion to $573.73 billion in the week ended January 20.  The rise was on account of an increase in the RBI's foreign currency assets as well as its gold holdings. Traders may take note of report that Union Minister for Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal called for creation of an international network of mentors, investors and entrepreneurs to strengthen the global startup ecosystem. However, there may be some cautiousness with report that foreign investors have pulled out a net of over Rs 17,000 crore this month so far due to the attractiveness of the Chinese markets and the cautious stance adopted by them ahead of the Union Budget and US Federal Reserve meeting. Meanwhile, the Commerce Ministry has the recommended imposition of anti-dumping duty on vinyl tiles coming from China and Taiwan for five years to guard domestic players from cheap imports from these countries. There will be some buzz in the pharma sector stocks with a private report that strong domestic demand and exports to semi-regulated markets are expected to drive revenue growth for the pharmaceuticals sector in the current fiscal year (FY23), though export demand from regulated markets is expected to remain moderate owing to high pricing pressure amid intense competition. Oil industry stocks will be in focus with provisional government data showing that Indian refiners' crude oil processing in December rose about 4% from a year earlier, in line with elevated demand in the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer. There will be some reaction in banking stocks as latest data released by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed after a slight moderation in growth in the previous fortnight, bank credit growth picked up in the fortnight ended January 13, 2023, with 16.5 per cent YoY growth to Rs 132.81 trillion. Also, investors will be eyeing results from many companies including Larsen & Toubro, Tech Mahindra, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Bajaj Finserv, Exide Industries, GAIL (India), Punjab National Bank, REC, SRF, Trident, and Welspun India later in the day for more cues. Besides, newsflow around the Adani-Hindenburg case will further drive the sentiment.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,604.35

17,437.01

17,828.21

BSE Sensex

59,330.90

58,814.76

60,006.96

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone

641.94

604.50

527.71

690.56

Tata Motors

633.60

445.25

435.80

454.05

Tata Steel

587.71

120.65

118.75

122.90

State Bank of India

401.63

542.00

526.65

562.95

ICICI Bank

397.18

818.25

806.56

836.46

 

  • Bharti Airtel has launched its cutting edge 5G services in Samba, Kathua, Udhampur, Akhnoor, Kupwara, Lakhanpur & Khour. 
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has launched Difluprednate Ophthalmic Emulsion 0.05%, a therapeutic generic equivalent to Durezol in the U.S. market, following the approval by the USFDA. 
  • HCL Technologies has inked pact with the Indian Institute of Technology, Dhanbad, to collaborate in the field of petroleum engineering and earth science.   
  • Reliance Industries' subsidiary -- Jio has launched its True 5G services across all 6 states of North-East circle by connecting 7 cities with the transformational Jio True 5G network.
News Analysis