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NSE Intra-day chart (28 October 2021)
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Market Commentary 29 October 2021
Markets likely to make cautious start amid mixed global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks witnessed a sharp decline and lost nearly two percent in the session, amid heavy broad-based sell-off. Volatility prevailed as traders rushed to square off their positions ahead of the expiry of monthly derivatives contracts due by the end of the session. Traders were anxious with report that cooking gas LPG prices may be hiked next week after under-recovery on the fuel widened to over Rs 100 per cylinder. Some concern also came with a report from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) said that in India, the decline in rice and wheat yields due to climate change could lead to economic losses between 43-81 billion EUR (or 1.8-3.4% of GDP) by 2050. Traders were also concerned as foreign Institutional Investors stood as net sellers in the capital market as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,913.36 crore on Wednesday, exchange data showed. Market participants overlooked a private report stated that amidst the continuing market rally, the value of the foreign portfolio investors' holdings in the domestic equities jumped by $112 billion to $667 billion between April 1 and September 30, 2021, even though they have been getting increasingly jittery about the highly stretched valuations. Traders also paid no heed towards RBI report showing that the country's foreign exchange reserves surged by $58.38 billion in April-September 2021 to $635.36 billion. The forex reserves were at $576.98 billion at end-March 2021. Meanwhile, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) stated that refunds of over Rs 1,02,952 crore have been issued to the taxpayers during the current financial year. The CBDT frames policy for the Income Tax Department. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 1158.63 points or 1.89% to 59,984.70 and the CNX Nifty was down by 353.70 points or 1.94% to 17,857.25.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reaching new record closing highs. A positive reaction to the latest batch of earnings news from big-name companies helped stocks renew the upward trend seen in recent sessions. Shares of Ford moved sharply higher after the auto giant reported much better than expected third quarter earnings and raised its full-year guidance. Brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev also spiked after raising its full-year forecast following a strong third quarter. Shares of Caterpillar and Merck also showed strong moves to the upside after the heavy equipment maker and drugmaker reported quarterly earnings that beat expectations. Further, adding to the positive sentiment on markets, a report from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims decreased for the fourth straight week in the week ended October 23rd. The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 281,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level 291,000. Street had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 290,000 originally reported for the previous week. With the modest decrease, jobless claims once again fell to their lowest level since hitting 256,000 in the week ended March 14, 2020. Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the Commerce Department showing a dramatic slowdown in the pace of US economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said real gross domestic product increased by 2.0 percent in the third quarter after jumping by 6.7 percent in the second quarter. Street had expected the pace of GDP growth to slow to 2.7 percent. The bigger than expected slowdown in GDP growth came as consumer spending rose by 1.6 percent in the third quarter after spiking by 12.0 percent in the second quarter.

 

Crude oil futures ended slightly higher on Thursday recovering well after languishing in the red following an early setback. Oil prices fell sharply early on in the session, weighed down by recent data showing an increase in US crude inventories and the prospect of Iranian crude entering the market. Iran's nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Khan said that talks with world powers regarding efforts to revive Iran's nuclear deal will resume by the end of next month. A deal between Iran and world powers on the nuclear pact could result in the return of about 1.3 million b/d of Iranian oil to global exports markets. Besides, concerns about the outlook for energy demand due to rising coronavirus cases in China and fears of fresh lockdown measures in Russia also contributed to oil's decline earlier in the session. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery rose $0.15 or about 0.2% to settle at $82.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for December delivery declined $0.26 or 0.31 percent to settle at $84.32 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended significantly higher against dollar on Thursday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Sentiments were upbeat as private report stated that amidst the continuing market rally, the value of the foreign portfolio investors' holdings in the domestic equities jumped by $112 billion to $667 billion between April 1 and September 30, 2021, even though they have been getting increasingly jittery about the highly stretched valuations. Additional support also came as RBI report showed that the country's foreign exchange reserves surged by $58.38 billion in April-September 2021 to $635.36 billion. The forex reserves were at $576.98 billion at end-March 2021. On the global front, sterling firmed on Thursday against the euro and the dollar as investors assessed whether the Bank of England would proceed with an interest rate hike at the upcoming meetings or hold fire, given concerns around economic growth. Finally, the rupee ended 74.92, stronger by 11 paise from its previous close of 75.03 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net seller in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9220.37 crore against gross selling of Rs 11039.03 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 367.82 crore with gross sales of Rs 297.66 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 167.21 crore against gross selling of Rs 176.45 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday as solid results from Caterpillar and Merck helped investors shrug off signs of slowing economic growth. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Friday despite record highs on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets tumbled around 2 percent each on Thursday amid weak global cues and the monthly derivative contracts expiry. Today, markets are likely to start the session on a cautious note, a day after the headline indices suffered their worst loss in six months, amid mixed global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement as painting a rosy picture of the economy, the city-based thinktank NCAER said that most of the sectors are on their way to reach pre-pandemic levels and surpass them. The National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said in its monthly review of the economy said the economic news has been favourable on balance, on account of better than projected fiscal outcomes, a rebound in most high-frequency indicators, and another impetus to policy reform, including a hitherto inconceivable privatisation of Air India. Some support will come as SBI Research in its report stated that the RBI should let the rupee rally against the dollar to contain imported inflation coming in mainly from crude prices and help push exports, as the current account risks from rising oil price can be contained at 1.4 per cent of GDP. Besides, the finance ministry has given its go ahead to 8.5% rate of interest on provident fund deposit for 2020-21 paving way for the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation to credit the interest in accounts of over 60 million beneficiaries. Meanwhile, the government has released a balance amount of Rs 40,000 crore to states and union territories (UTs) with legislature under the back-to-back loan facility in-lieu of GST compensation. However, some cautiosuness may come as the Centre extended the nationwide Covid-19 containment measures till November 30 as there has been localised spread of the virus in a few states and the disease continues to be a public health challenge in the country. Gold and jewelry industry stocks will be in focus as the World Gold Council said in a report India's gold demand has seen a 47 per cent year-on-year jump in the July-September quarter to 139.1 tonnes, following strong rebound in economic activity and recovering consumer demand. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,857.25

17,707.56

18,098.81

BSE Sensex

59,984.70

59,481.18

60,784.60

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ITC

462.45

225.15

220.89

232.69

State Bank of India

281.35

503.70

494.01

516.96

Tata Motors

251.62

481.80

475.60

490.95

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

248.10

150.90

147.45

155.60

Coal India

244.99

167.15

164.40

171.45

 

  • SBI and Global dairy major lactalis, which operates in the name of SAIPL in Maharashtra, have joined hands to extend financial support to the dairy farmers in the state. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India is planning to launch electric vehicles in the country only after 2025 as demand for such vehicles at the moment is less and it would like to sell around 10,000 units a month whenever it enters the electric mobility space. 
  • L&T's construction arm -- L&T construction has bagged contract for its Buildings a Factories business from CPWD to construct Common Central Secretariat Integrated Buildings. 
  • HCL Technologies has launched HCL SMARTWiFi, a WiFi management platform targeted to Communication Service Providers delivering WiFi services.
News Analysis