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NSE Intra-day chart (25 August 2022)
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Market Commentary 26 August 2022
Markets to get optimistic start on firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks erased all of their initial gains and sank into the red in the fag-end of the session on Thursday, with TECK and IT stocks playing spoilsport amid monthly derivatives expiry. Benchmarks made optimistic start and stayed in the positive territory for most part of the trade, as traders took some support with RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal stating that eight years of systemic economic reforms under the Modi government have increased India's macroeconomic stability and its capacity to withstand any external shocks. She further said appropriate countercyclical macroeconomic policy with continuing supply-side improvements has enabled a growth recovery that is among the best in the world. Some optimism also came as S&P Global Ratings in its report said India has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties and has ample foreign exchange reserves to withstand pressure on credit worthiness. Besides, exchange data showed Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 23.19 crore on Wednesday. However, key gauges suddenly came under heavy selling pressure during the last half-hour of the session, as traders turned cautious with Crisil's report that States' revenue growth will slide to 7-9 per cent in FY23 even as handsome GST collections will help in the accretion. It said the revenue growth had galloped 25 per cent in FY22 courtesy a lower base in the pandemic-affected FY21. Some concern also came with the former chairman of the statistical commission Pronab Sen's statement that India's banking sector is faced with the predicament of a 'massive asset-liability mismatch' that could explode anytime. Sen stated that there is a need to reassess laws governing the industry. Sen said that explosion has not yet happened as most of the banks are in the public sector. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 310.71 points or 0.53% to 58,774.72 and the CNX Nifty was down by 82.50 points or 0.47% to 17,522.45.

 

The US markets ended in green on Thursday, with Nasdaq settling over 1.5% higher, ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech in the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell is widely expected to reiterate the central bank's hawkish stance, given the expectations that inflation in the US will be persistent and it will take time to contain it. Meanwhile, Investors were also waiting for the report of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Friday. The PCE is one of the Fed's favorite inflation measures and could influence its actions going forward. Stock specific developments, NVIDIA Corporation shares gained more than 4 percent, recovering after early weakness, despite the company reporting weaker-than-expected quaterly results, and lowering its earnings guidance. Boeing surged more than 3.5 percent. Caterpillar, JP Morgan Chase, Intel, American Express, Visa, Apple and Nike gained 1.5 to 3 percent. On the economic data front, data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims dropped to 243,000 in the week ended August 20th, from a revised 245,000 claims a week earlier. However, data from the Labor Department showed the U.S. economy contracted an annualized 0.6 percent in the second quarter, following a 1.6 percent drop a quarter earlier. Personal consumption expenditure increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, after rising 1.8 percent in the previous quarter. Year-on-year, personal consumption expenditure rose 1.9 percent in the second quarter.  

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday on account of concerns about outlook for energy demand amid rising possibility of a recession in several parts of the globe weighed as well on oil prices. Further, oil prices dropped with traders weighing the prospects for the return of Iranian oil to the market. According to private reports, talks between EU, the US and Iran on the 2015 nuclear deal are on, with Iran saying it had received a response from the United States to the EU's final text to resurrect the agreement. However, oil prices moved higher earlier in the session, lifted by reports the OPEC+ could cut oil supplies. Benchmark crude oil futures for September delivery fell $2.37 or about 2.5 percent to settle at $92.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for October delivery dropped $1.33 or 1.31 percent to settle at $99.89 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.    

 

Indian rupee weakened against dollar on Thursday, due to fresh demand for American currency from banks and importers. Traders remained cautious with report stating that India's business and consumption activity showed conflicting signs of recovery in July as elevated inflation, rising borrowing costs and fears of a global slowdown weighed on Asia's third-largest economy. However, losses remain capped as some support came with RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal stating that eight years of systemic economic reforms under the Modi government have increased India's macroeconomic stability and its capacity to withstand any external shocks. On the global front, sterling recouped some losses against the dollar on Thursday but was still languishing near a 2-1/2 year low ahead of upcoming speeches by Bank of England and Federal Reserve officials that could determine the near term outlook for the currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 79.92 (Provisional), weaker by 6 paisa from its previous close of 79.86 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment and net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7410.77 crore against gross selling of Rs 7242.72 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 561.95 crore against gross selling of Rs 874.97 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.71 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.07 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday lifted by strength in Nvidia and other technology-related stocks, as investors focused on the Fed's Jackson Hole conference for clues about the US central bank's policy outlook. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday following a strong session overnight on Wall Street even as data points to mild US economic contraction in the second quarter of 2022. Indian markets capitulated in the last hour of trade on Thursday to break their two-session winning run, with IT, finance, and bank stocks playing spoilsport amid expiry of monthly derivative contracts. Today, start of session is likely to be optimistic mirroring strong global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement with a report that the Income-tax department has collected around Rs 28 crore in taxes after about 1 lakh returns were filed by taxpayers under the newly introduced return filing form called ITR-U that was notified this year as part of the Budget 2022-23. Some support will come as RBI data showed Bank credit growth accelerated to 14.2 per cent in the quarter ended June 2022 from 6 per cent in the same period of the previous year. Traders may take note of S&P Global Ratings' statement that India has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties and has ample foreign exchange reserves to withstand pressure on credit worthiness. S&P Sovereign & International Public Finance Ratings Director Andrew Wood said we are expecting a strong level of GDP growth of 7.3 per cent this fiscal. Meanwhile, a private report stated that the Indian software-as-a-services (SaaS) market is expected to grow multi-fold by 2025, accounting for almost 7 to 10 per cent of the global market from 2 to 4 per cent currently. There will be some buzz in telecom stocks as telecom firms will not require any approval for laying cables or installing mobile towers over private properties, according to new Right of Way Rules. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus with report that India's sugar exports are likely to decline by 28.57 at around 8 million tonne in the 2022-23 season on expected lower opening balance stock and higher diversion for ethanol. There will be some reaction in fertilizer industry stocks as India and Saudi Arabia signed a pact for an annual supply of 2.5 million tonnes of ammonia and DAP, NPK fertilisers for the next three years. Non-financail companies stocks will be in limelight after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said the first quarter of FY23 saw listed private non-financial companies log 41 per cent sales growth. Besides, Syrma SGS Technology shares will list on the stock exchanges today. The Rs 840 crore IPO of Syrma SGS Technology was subscribed 32.61 times with all investor categories subscribing to their portion of the issue heavily.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,522.45

17,431.10

17,670.15

BSE Sensex

58,774.72

58,465.97

59,283.91

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

421.86

106.25

105.36

107.51

State Bank of India

154.73

520.40

516.50

526.30

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

146.20

136.55

135.75

137.75

Coal India

130.77

224.90

223.35

226.80

NTPC

128.89

158.90

157.59

161.09

 

  • Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has relaunched a tender to sell gas from its KG fields at a higher price of $15 per mmBtu as it looks to capitalise on a global surge in energy prices. 
  • Power Grid Corporation of India has acquired Neemuch Transmission on August 24, 2022 from the Bid Process Coordinator - REC Power Development and Consultancy. 
  • M&M subsidiary company -- Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India has incorporated wholly owned subsidiary namely Mahindra Holidays & Resorts Harihareshwar on August 23, 2022.
  • HDFC Bank and Tata Neu have entered into a partnership to launch one of India's most rewarding co-branded credit cards.
News Analysis