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NSE Intra-day chart (24 October 2022)
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Market Commentary 25 October 2022
Benchmarks likely to make flat-to-negative start amid mixed Asian cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks managed to end in the positive territory after facing volatility in the latter part of the trade on Friday amid gains in banking and Financial Services stocks. Key gauges made positive start and stayed in green for most part of the day, as traders took some support with Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal's statement that there is a huge scope for India to move in the global value chain systems and have high value-addition in global exports. However, key gauges erased all the gains and traded with minor cuts in final hour of trade amid concerns over Labour Ministry data showing retail inflation for farm and rural workers increased to 7.69 percent and 7.9 percent respectively in September this year. The hike was attributed to higher prices of certain food items. But, selling proved short-lived as markets bounced back in green, taking support from Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Textiles, Piyush Goyal's statement that the world currently is looking at India with great confidence. Meanwhile, Indian equity markets maintained their bullishness on the special Muhurat trading session on Diwali with both the major indices managing to settle above their psychological levels of 59,800 (Sensex) and 17,700 (Nifty), giving indications that markets will likely remain bullish during the current Hindu calendar year Samvat 2079 with investors reaping rich gains. Traders believe that trades executed during this time brings prosperity and wealth throughout the year. Key gauges made a gap up opening and traded with traction in tight band as traders remained optimistic about Indian markets on the back of better than expected Q2 numbers by Indian companies. During the short session of trade broader markets too performed in line with benchmarks and all the sectoral gauges barring FMGG ended in green with capital goods, industrial and financial services garnering the maximum gains. Finally, the BSE Sensex soared 524.51 points or 0.88% to 59,831.66 and the CNX Nifty was up by 154.45 points or 0.88% to 17,730.75.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday on optimism that the Federal Reserve will signal a slowdown in monetary policy tightening following its meeting next week. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points next week, but traders are hopeful the central bank will indicate plans to slow the pace of rates hikes beginning in December. However, Overall trading activity remained somewhat subdued with a lack of major US economic data keeping some traders on the sidelines. A report on personal income and spending that includes a reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Fed is likely to be in focus in the coming days. Traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on consumer confidence, new home sales, and durable goods orders and third quarter GDP. On the sectoral front, transportation stocks turned in some of the market's best performances on the day, resulting in a 2.9 percent surge by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. The average jumped to its best closing level in a month. Significant strength was also visible among banking stocks, as reflected by the 1.8 percent gain posted by the KBW Bank Index. Healthcare and pharmaceutical stocks also saw considerable strength, with the Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index and the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index climbing by 1.7 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. Oil, retail and housing stocks also moved notably higher over the course of the session, while steel stocks showed a substantial move to the downside.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday on lingering concerns about the outlook for global demand, particularly in China. Adding the worries about Chinese demand, China's Communist Party ended its 20th National Congress over the weekend with no signs of a significant change in the zero-COVID policy that has crimped business and trade. Besides, ongoing strength in the US dollar, which was up again for part of the trading session following another suspected foreign exchange intervention by Japan, also posed problems for oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $0.47 or 0.6 percent at $84.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery declined $0.24 or about 0.25 percent to settle at $93.26 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. 

 

Indian rupee erased its early losses and ended significantly higher against dollar on Friday tracking a positive trend in domestic equities for six consecutive day. Sentiments remained upbeat after Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal stated that there is a huge scope for India to move in the global value chain systems and have high value-addition in global exports. India's share in global exports is less than 2 per cent. So, huge potential is there to boost the shipments despite global headwinds and low trade growth predictions. On the global front, the yen was on track for its 10th straight weekly decline against the relentlessly strong dollar on Friday, while sterling fell as political turmoil once again gripped Britain. The dollar gained across the board, also pushing the Swiss franc to its lowest level since May 2019. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.67 (Provisional), stronger by 12 paisa from its previous close of 82.79 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8742.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 7055.17 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 366.94 crore against gross selling of Rs 740.50 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 33.38 crore against gross selling of Rs 77.42 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday as signs of economic softness suggested the effects of the Fed's aggressive policy aimed at cooling the economy, thereby curbing decades-high inflation, are beginning to take root. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday despite positive cues from Wall Street overnight. Indian markets ended higher for the sixth session on Friday as healthy corporate earnings and fresh foreign fund inflows offset negative cues from global markets. Besides, benchmark indices ended on strong note on the first day (Muhurat Day) of Samvat 2079 with Nifty finishing above 17,700. Today, the start of holiday shortened session is likely be flat-to-negative tracking mixed cues from Asian peers. Markets will be remain close on October 26 (Wednesday) on account of Diwali-Balipratipada. Traders will be concerned as the RBI said India's forex reserves dropped by $4.50 billion to $528.37 billion for the week ended October 14. According to the Weekly Statistical Supplement released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Foreign Currency Assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, saw a drop of $2.828 billion to $468.668 billion during the week to October 14. Some cautiousness will also come as foreign investors have pulled out close to Rs 6,000 crore from the Indian equity markets so far this month in the wake of strength in the US dollar against the rupee. With this, the total outflow by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) has reached Rs 1.75 trillion so far in 2022, data with the depositories showed. However, some support may come as the finance ministry said in its monthly economic review for September stated that India's growth and stability concerns are less than that of the world at large, and estimated the country's medium-term growth rate above 6 percent. There will be some buzz in banking stocks as the Reserve Bank of India's weekly statistical supplement showed that Indian banks' loans rose 17.9% in the two weeks to Oct. 7 from a year earlier, while deposits rose 9.6%. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus with a private report that the government will soon announce the sugar export quota for the marketing year that started on October 1, which would be substantially lower than the 2021-22 level. There will be some reaction in infrastructure industry stocks with report that as many as 384 infrastructure projects, each entailing an investment of Rs 150 crore or more, have been hit by cost overruns of more than Rs 4.52 lakh crore.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,730.75

17,699.59

17,769.74

BSE Sensex

59,831.66

59,740.79

59,958.38

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

74.80

101.20

100.76

101.86

ICICI Bank

43.90

926.30

918.10

934.00

State Bank of India

36.92

570.50

566.76

573.36

ITC

31.70

347.70

346.56

349.26

Axis Bank

30.85

909.45

903.49

916.94

 

  • Axis Bank has reported rise of 66.29% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 5625.25 crore for Q2FY23 as compared to Rs 3382.78 crore for Q2FY22.
  • Coal India has initiated 17 more first mile connectivity projects under phase-III, strengthening its network of eco-friendly coal transportation. 
  • ITC has reported rise of 24.09% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 4670.32 crore for Q2FY23 as compared to Rs 3763.73 crore for Q2FY22. 
  • Asian Paints has entered into a binding term sheet for the setting up of a joint venture in Fujairah, UAE, with Riddhi Siddhi, Fujairah, UAE, Associated Soap Stone Distributing Company, India and others.
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