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NSE Intra-day chart (23 November 2022)
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Market Commentary 24 November 2022
Markets likely to get positive start on firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended with minor gains on Wednesday, supported by buying in Oil & Gas, Banking and Metal stocks, and positive cues from global peers, while investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's November policy meeting minutes. Key gauges made positive start and stayed in green for whole day as traders took some support with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) latest Economic Outlook report stating that India, with a growth rate of 6.6 per cent in this financial year, is set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the G20 in FY 2022-23 behind Saudi Arabia, despite decelerating global demand and the tightening of monetary policy to manage inflationary pressures. Some optimism also came after Moody's Investors Service said the trend of gradual fiscal consolidation remains intact for India and going forward the country will see strong revenue performance and debt stablisation. Indices added gains in late afternoon deals, taking support from commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the UK is a high priority for both the countries and the next round of negotiations for the pact is slated to happen next month. Some support also came as highlighting the Centre's efforts in creating employment opportunities, Union Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said that about 16 lakh jobs are being generated every month by the central government. However, in the last leg of the trade, key gauges erased some gains to end marginally higher as traders got anxious with provisional data available on the NSE showed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold shares worth Rs 697.83 crore on November 22, 2022. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 91.62 points or 0.15% to 61,510.58 and the CNX Nifty was up by 23.05 points or 0.13% to 18,267.25.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's early November monetary policy meeting, which provided further evidence the central bank is considering slowing the pace of its interest rate hikes. The minutes said a substantial majority of meeting participants judged that a slowing in the pace of rate hikes would likely soon be appropriate. The minutes said a slower pace of rate hikes would better allow the Fed to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability. However, a few other participates suggested it could be advantageous to wait until the rates were more clearly in restrictive territory and there were more concrete signs that inflation pressures were receding significantly before slowing the pace of rate hikes. The minutes also said participants agreed further interest rate increases would be appropriate in order to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance to bring inflation down over time. Various participants also indicated the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be necessary to achieve the Fed's goals was somewhat higher than they had previously expected. On the sectoral front, tobacco stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Tobacco Index up by 2.9 percent to a three-month closing high. Considerable strength was also visible among computer hardware stocks, as reflected by the 1.7 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index.

 

Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Wednesday on reports that the Group of Seven nations has considered a price cap on Russian oil. According to reports, G7 nations are considering a price cap of $65-$70 a barrel on Russian seaborne oil. However, Data released by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories dropped by 3.7 million barrels in the week ended November 18th, larger than an expected drop of about 1.1 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $3.01 or about 3.7 percent at $77.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $3.15 or about 3.56 percent to settle at $85.21 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee tumbled against dollar on Wednesday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Traders failed to take support from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) latest report stating that India, with a growth rate of 6.6 per cent in this financial year, is among the fastest growing economies in Asia amid a global slowdown triggered by a massive energy shock due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the global front, sterling ticked up on Wednesday, rising for a second day against a faltering U.S. dollar after preliminary British economic activity data beat expectations, though it still showed contraction was underway. Flash purchasing manager index (PMI) data on Wednesday showed British economic activity sticking near 21-month lows, adding to signs of recession as orders sank and employment growth slowed. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.85 (Provisional), weaker by 18 paisa from its previous close of 81.67 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7399.25 crore against gross selling of Rs 7636.58 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 459.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 295.38 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.02 crore against gross selling of Rs 7.16 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday with solid gains after the Federal Reserve's November meeting minutes showed interest rate hikes may slow soon. Asian markets are trading in green on Thursday following overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets pared early gains to finish slightly higher on Wednesday as rise in banking, metals, and oil and gas stocks were offset by decline in information technology and FMCG stocks. Today, markets are likely to start F&O expiry session in green tracking firm global cues. Traders will be getting encouragement as Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said India's tax collection will exceed the budget estimate by nearly Rs 4 lakh crore in the current fiscal on the back of buoyant income tax, customs duty and GST mop-up. Some support will come as the S&P Global Market Intelligence projected India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to average 6.3 per cent annually between financial years 2021 and 2030, enabling it to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world's third-largest economy in nominal US dollar terms. Traders may take note of report that India's G-20 sherpa Amitabh Kant said financial regulators were designed in the socialist era and there is a need for a change in the mindset of many regulators to aid economic growth. However, there may be some cautiousness as the data of the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) showed that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflows into India contracted by 14 per cent to USD 26.9 billion during the April-September this fiscal. The inflows had stood at USD 31.15 billion during the corresponding period of the previous year. Also, foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments in markets. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 789.86 crore on 23 November, according to the provisional data available on the NSE. There will be some buzz in the telecom stocks as telecom regulator Trai in a report said telecom service providers' adjusted gross revenue grew 17.91 per cent on a year-over-year basis to Rs 60,530 crore in April-June 2022 with Jio leading in terms of revenue share. Sugar stocks will be in focus as the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said India is likely to extend the limit of sugar exports by 2-4 million tonnes in the 2022-23 season. The move will leave total exports at 8-10 million tonnes and below last year's level. Meanwhile, Keystone Realtors, the real estate development company under Rustomjee brand, will debut on the BSE and NSE.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,267.25

18,233.70

18,313.10

BSE Sensex

61,510.58

61,375.22

61,713.43

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

228.09

105.40

104.90

105.95

State Bank of India

124.36

607.10

602.20

610.80

NTPC

120.05

167.80

166.61

168.61

ICICI Bank

109.60

926.50

922.85

931.00

Power Grid Corporation of India

101.33

215.40

213.50

218.05

 

  • Tata Motors has launched the new Tigor.ev sedan with an extended range of 315 km (ARAI certified) and host of premium & technology features. 
  • NTPC has begun dispatching coal through rakes from its Talaipalli mines to Lara Super Thermal Power Project in Chhattisgarh. 
  • S&P Global Ratings has upped its credit rating on Axis Bank with a stable outlook on expectations that the bank will maintain good asset quality over the next two years. 
  • Bajaj Auto has launched the all-new Pulsar P150 in India.
News Analysis