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Market Commentary 24 June 2022
Markets to get optimistic start on firm global cues


Indian benchmark indices ended nearly one percent higher in the highly volatile session on Thursday, led by gains in Auto, Consumer Discretionary and IT stocks despite fears of rising rates and recession across the globe. Indian markets opened on a positive note, as sentiments got a boost with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that the government expects the Indian economy to grow by 7.5 per cent this year. Modi also said the value of the Indian digital economy will reach $1 trillion by 2025. Traders remained energized with RBI data showing that the country's foreign exchange reserves in nominal terms, including valuation effects, rose by $30.3 billion in 2021-22 fiscal against $99.2 billion expansion in FY2020-21. Traders took note of a private report that sowing of kharif crops like soyabean, paddy, cotton has picked up in the country amid an advancing monsoon. However, during the afternoon session markets trimmed all of their gains to trade with minor cuts, as traders turned cautious with the Reserve Bank stating that India witnessed a current account deficit of 1.2 per cent of GDP in 2021-22 against a surplus of 0.9 per cent in FY2020-21 due to a wider trade deficit. Some pessimism also came with Sebi data showed that Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes (P-notes) dropped to Rs 86,706 crore till May-end from the preceding month. But, selling proved short-lived as key gauges bounced back in afternoon deals to close higher taking support from a private reports stating that the corporate profit to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio rebounded to a decade high of 4.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent for the Nifty-500 universe and listed India companies, respectively. The recovery was driven by the expansion in the economy, after a Covid-led contraction in 2021, while corporate profit rose at a faster rate of 48 per cent year-on-year for the Nifty 500 companies. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 443.19 points or 0.86% to 52,265.72 and the CNX Nifty was up by 143.35 points or 0.93% to 15,556.65.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday as traders weighed going bargain hunting following recent weakness against the possibility of a global recession. Traders kept an eye on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's before the House Financial Services Committee, with the Fed chief reiterating his commitment to moving expeditiously to bring inflation back down. The Fed's plans to aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation has led to concerns tighter monetary policy will tip the economy into a recession. Powell has acknowledged that achieving a soft landing will be very challenging due in part to factors outside of the Fed's control and noted a recession is certainly a possibility. Besides, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped to its lowest level in roughly two weeks. On the sectoral front, Biotechnology stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the session, driving the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index up by 4.4 percent. On the economic data front, the Labor Department released a report showing first-time claims for US unemployment benefits edged slightly lower in the week ended June 18. The report showed initial jobless claims dipped to 229,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 231,000. Street had expected jobless claims to slip to 227,000 from the 229,000 originally reported for the previous week. Substantial strength was also visible among housing stocks, as reflected by the 3.1 percent spike by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index.


Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, magnifying their previous session's losses, on concerns about outlook for energy demand amid rising possibility of a recession. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fanned worries US interest rate hikes would slow economic growth. Powell said the Fed's focus on curbing inflation was unconditional and the labor market was unsustainably strong, comments that stoked fears of more rate hikes. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery fell $1.92 or 1.8 percent to settle at $104.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for August delivery dropped $1.69 or 1.5 percent to settle at $110.05 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended flat on Thursday due to mild dollar demand from banks and importers. Traders took some solace with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that the government expects the Indian economy to grow by 7.5 per cent this year. Modi also said the value of the Indian digital economy will reach $1 trillion by 2025. However, investors were taking cautious approach with Reserve Bank's statement that India witnessed a current account deficit of 1.2 per cent of GDP in 2021-22 against a surplus of 0.9 per cent in FY2020-21 due to a wider trade deficit. On the global front, euro weakened broadly on Thursday as disappointing German and French PMI data confirmed the euro zone economy is struggling to gain traction, prompting traders to trim bets on big interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank. Finally, the rupee ended unchanged from its previous close of 78.32 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4520.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 7133.54 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2574.84 crore against gross selling of Rs 126.74 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.30 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday fueled by strong performance from defensive and tech shares that outweighed declines for economically sensitive groups as worries persisted about a potential recession. Asian markets are trading in green on Friday following a strong session in the US overnight. Indian markets ended a volatile session in green on Thursday with notable gains led by financial, IT and auto counters. Today, markets are likely to get optimistic start on firm global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement with a private report that the Indian economy can grow by 7-7.8 per cent this fiscal on the back of better agriculture production and a revitalised rural economy amid global headwinds mainly due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. some support will come as India reported engineering exports at $9.79 billion in May 2022, recording a growth of 13.5 percent over the $8.62 billion reported in the same month a year ago, while the country saw its cumulative engineering exports growing by 16.84 percent at $19.39billion ($16.6 billion) during April-May 2022 period. Traders may take note of report that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to exporters and the industry to fix long-term export targets for themselves and suggest ways to the government to achieve those figures. However, there may be some cautiousness as investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes (P-notes) dropped to Rs 86,706 crore until end-May from the preceding month. According to the Securities and Exchange Board of India data, the value of P-note investments in Indian markets - equity, debt, and hybrid securities - stood at Rs 86,706 crore end-May, compared with Rs 90,580 crore end-April. Continued selling in FIIs likely to weight on sentiments in markets. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Rs 2,319.06 crore worth of shares on June 23. Besides, the GST Council is likely to consider making an e-way bill mandatory for intra-state movement of gold or precious stones worth Rs 2 lakh and above and also e-invoicing mandatory for certain B2B transactions. Meanwhile, World Bank has approved three loans totalling $562 million (about Rs 4,393.70 crore) to fund an education project in Gujarat, a social protection programme in Tamil Nadu and a project to help recovery in the fisheries sector post the pandemic.


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  • Bajaj Auto has rolled out its new Pulsar N160 motorcycle model in India priced at Rs 1.28 lakh (ex-showroom Delhi). 
  • Indian Oil Corporation has unveiled a stationary, rechargeable and indoor cooking stove that uses the sun's energy to cook food while always being kept in the kitchen.
  • ICICI Bank has launched a digital platform to address the needs of the students aspiring to pursue higher education in India and abroad. 
  • Coal India's subsidiary -- SECL has signed a MoU with the MPPGCL to develop a 660 MW thermal power unit at an investment of Rs 4,665 crore.
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