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Market Commentary 24 January 2023
Markets to get positive start tracking overnight gains on Wall Street

 

Indian equity benchmarks snapped two day losing streak to end half a percent higher on Monday, as upbeat operating performance by India Inc in the December 2022 quarter supported the market sentiments. Markets opened higher and extended gains, as traders took encouragement with data showing that India's forex reserves zoomed by $10.417 billion to $572 billion as on January 13, making it one of the biggest weekly jumps in the kitty in recent times. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $1.268 billion to $561.583 billion. Sentiments remained positive with a labour ministry stating that retail inflation for farm and rural workers sequentially eased to 6.38 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively, in December 2022, mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. However, key gauges trimmed some of their initial gains in afternoon deals, as traders got anxious with the latest payroll data showing that fresh formal job creation remained below one million for the second consecutive month in November, signalling pressure in the employment market. Investors also were cautious as foreign investors pulled out a net amount of Rs 15,236 crore this month so far on attractive Chinese markets and concerns about the US economy entering a recession. But, market regained traction to end higher as some optimism remained among traders with a UK Foreign Office minister's statement that negotiations between Britain and India for an ambitious Free Trade Agreement (FTA) are well advanced, with the next round of talks set to commence very soon. He also asserted that a strong deal could boost the country's economy. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 319.90 points or 0.53% to 60,941.67 and the CNX Nifty was up by 90.90 points or 0.50% to 18,118.55.

 

The US markets ended sharply higher on Monday, with Nasdaq settling over two percent, as investors contemplated a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and braced for a busy week of earnings. Technology stocks helped lead the markets higher once again, contributing to the standout gain by the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Shares of Tesla and Apple gained on hopes that a reopening in China would boost their businesses. Both big tech names recently grappled with temporary shutdowns and blows to production as the country dealt with surging Covid-19 cases. Semiconductor stocks turned in a particularly strong performance, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up by 5.0 percent to a five-month closing high. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) spiked by 9.2 percent after Barclays upgraded its rating on the company's stock to Overweight from Equal Weight. Significant strength was also visible among computer hardware stocks, as reflected by the 3.6 percent surge by the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index. Networking and software stocks also saw considerable strength, while banking and transportation stocks turned in some of the best performances outside the tech sector. The extended rally on Markets came even as traders looked ahead to the release of earnings news from a number of big-name companies this week.

 

Crude oil futures failed to hold early gains and ended roughly flat on Monday amid concerns about the outlook for oil demand due to a potential U.S. recession. Further, oil prices fall as investors cashed in on a jump to a seven-week high on optimism about a possible recovery in demand of top oil importer China as the economy recovers this year from pandemic lockdowns. Meanwhile, the G7 has agreed to delay a review of the level of the price cap on Russian oil to March, a month later than originally planned, to provide time to assess the impact of the oil products price cap. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery down 2 cents at $81.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for March delivery gained 48 cents or 0.55 percent at $88.11 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended considerably lower against the US dollar on Monday amid rise in crude prices. Traders got anxious with the latest payroll data showing that fresh formal job creation remained below one million for the second consecutive month in November, signalling pressure in the employment market.  Some concern also came as foreign investors pulled out a net amount of Rs 15,236 crore this month so far on attractive Chinese markets and concerns about the US economy entering a recession. However, strong sentiment at domestic equities market restricted the fall of the local currency. On the global front, the euro scaled a nine-month high on the dollar on Monday as more hawkish comments on European interest rates contrasted with market pricing for a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.42 (Provisional), weaker by 25 paise from its previous close of 81.17 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8310.51 crore against gross selling of Rs 9951.26 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1665.73 crore against gross selling of Rs 1320.43 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.40 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday fueled by surging technology stocks as investors began an earnings-heavy week with a renewed enthusiasm for market-leading momentum stocks that were battered last year. Asian markets are trading in green on Tuesday as Lunar New Year holidays were observed in most of the region. Markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore are closed for a holiday. Indian markets ended higher on Monday on gains in IT and financial stocks after positive quarterly results amid supportive global cues. Today, domestic equity indices are likely to extend their previous session's gains with positive start tracking overnight gains on Wall Street along with optimistic cues from Asian peers. Traders will be taking encouragement as economic think-tank NCAER said business confidence has recovered from the lows of the pre-pandemic (201920) and the following two pandemic years. The NCAER-NSE Business Confidence Index (BCI) was higher at 126.6 in the third quarter of 202223 than the year-ago level of 124.4. Meanwhile, B20 India Chair N Chandrasekaran said the Business-20 has a unique opportunity and a very important role to play in working out agenda that can be value adding for all G-20 nations and the rest of the world. However, some cautiousness may come as foreign institutional investors (FII) have net-sold shares worth Rs 219.87 crore on January 23, as per provisional data available on the NSE. Traders may be concerned as investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes slightly dropped to Rs 96,292 crore at the end of December 2022 from the preceding month on higher valuation of domestic markets. Shares of Gold related businesses are likely to be in focus amid reports that the government is considering bringing the effective duty on Gold to below 12 per cent. Currently, the effective duty on gold is 18.45 per cent, which includes 12.5 per cent import duty, 2.5 per cent agriculture infrastructure development cess and other taxes. There will be some reaction in oil & gas industry stocks with a private report that India's crude oil imports rose to a five-month high in December, as refiners stocked up discounted Russian fuel amid a steady increase in consumption in the country. Market participants continue to look forward for earnings from many cues for directional cues. Cartrade Tech, Colgate Palmolive, HDFC AMC, Maruti Suzuki India, SBI Card, and TVS Motor Company are some of the companies to report their quarterly results today.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,118.55

18,067.14

18,166.29

BSE Sensex

60,941.67

60,764.61

61,116.00

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

286.01

121.80

120.91

123.26

ICICI Bank

168.82

869.60

861.70

880.40

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

167.42

152.20

151.34

153.09

Tata Motors

131.13

408.00

405.01

410.96

Power Grid Corporation of India

107.95

224.55

222.64

227.39

 

  • Coal India's subsidiary -- Mahanadi Coalfields is aiming to achieve approximately 190 million tonnes of dry fuel production in FY23. 
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured orders for its Power Transmission & Distribution and Buildings & Factories Businesses. 
  • Reliance Industries' subsidiary company -- Reliance Retail has acquired Telangana and Andhra Pradesh-based footwear and apparel retailer V Retail. 
  • Infosys has joined Linux Foundation Networking, the de-facto collaboration ecosystem for open source networking projects, as a Platinum member.
News Analysis