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NSE Intra-day chart (22 September 2021)
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Market Commentary 23 September 2021
Benchmarks likely to make gap-up start tracking firm global cues


Indian equity benchmarks witnessed a volatile trading session on Wednesday and closed the day flat with negative bias amid weakness across Asian markets. After making cautious start, key gauges managed to keep heads in green terrain in morning session, as traders were taking support from private report stating that Indians are slowly making their way back to the office and is witnessing a consumption revival in the country with spending intent shifting towards more discretionary items. It also said decreasing number of COVID-19 cases as well as an aggressive vaccination drive have brought in a new wave of confidence amongst Indian consumers. Some support also came with Niti Aayog member V K Saraswat's statement that the Indian innovation ecosystem is driven by knowledge economy, fundamental research driven by marketplace, and disruptive technologies like machine learning and artificial intelligence. However, markets continued to dance between gains and losses ahead of the closing bell, as traders were concerned as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cut its projection of India's economic growth by 0.2 percentage points to 9.7 per cent for the current financial year. Some anxiety also came in after Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down India's Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 10 percent for the current fiscal (FY22) from 11 percent predicted earlier, citing the adverse impact of the second wave of the pandemic. Adding to the pessimism, India recorded a spike of 27,333 new Covid-19 cases in the past 24 hours. The country also witnessed 385 deaths, taking the death toll to 445,801. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 77.94 points or 0.13% to 58,927.33 and the CNX Nifty was down by 15.35 points or 0.09% to 17,546.65.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday as traders picked up stocks at reduced levels following the slump seen during the month of September. With the upward move on the day, the Dow bounced off its lowest closing level in three months, while the S&P 500 rebounded from a two-month closing low. Stocks held on to strong gains even as the Fed hinted tapering of its asset purchases could begin in the near future amid continued progress towards it goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Fed said in the announcement of its latest monetary policy decision that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted if progress towards its dual goals continues broadly as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank could begin tapering its asset purchases as soon as its next meeting in early November. Powell said while no decisions were made, participants generally viewed that so long as the recovery remains on track, a gradual tapering process that concludes around the middle of next year is likely to be appropriate. Powell stated substantial further progress has been achieved with regard to the Fed's inflation goal, while the test for substantial further progress on employment is all but met.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday after data showed a larger than expected drop in US crude stockpiles in the week ended September 17. Data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US crude inventories dropped for a seventh straight week. The EIA data showed crude stockpiles dropped by 3.481 million barrels to 414 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 2018. The EIA also said that oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico continue to return to production, and weekly output rose by 500,000 barrels per day in the most recent week. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday showed crude stockpiles in the US dropped by about 6.1 million barrels in the week ended September 17. Benchmark Crude oil futures November delivery rose $1.74 or 2.5 percent to settle at $72.23 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery surged $1.58 or 2.08 percent to settle at $75.94 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.   


Indian rupee ends considerably lower against dollar on Wednesday on emergence of demand for the greenback from importers. Sentiments were negative, as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) downgraded its 2021 economic growth outlook for India -- the subregion's largest economy -- to 10 per cent from 11 per cent in 2021. However, it said the outlook for next year has improved to 7.5 per cent from 7 per cent. Besides, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its latest report has cut its projection of India's economic growth by 0.2 percentage points to 9.7 per cent for the current financial year (FY22). On the global front, risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and Chinese yuan jumped and the safe-haven yen eased slightly on Wednesday after Chinese property giant Evergrande said it would make an upcoming yuan bond coupon payment, allaying immediate fears of a default. Finally, the rupee ended 73.87, weaker by 26 paise from its previous close of 73.61 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyer in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8101.18 crore against gross selling of Rs 6767.74 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1133.41 crore against gross selling of Rs 795.22 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 36.56 crore against gross selling of Rs 74.92 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated monetary policy announcement. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday supported by some positive news from struggling developer China Evergrande Group after the Federal Reserve took a hawkish tilt overnight. Indian markets ended a volatile session in red territory on Wednesday as gains in automobile, metal and IT shares were outweighed by losses in banking and financial services counters. Today, the markets are likely to make gap-up opening tracking firm cues from global peers. Traders will be taking encouragement with the commerce and industry ministry's statement that foreign direct investments into the country more than doubled to $20.42 billion during the April-July period of the current fiscal. Total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow rose to $27.37 billion during the first four months of 2021-22. In the year-ago period, the same was at $16.92 billion. Some support will come as Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das underlined the need for a big push to infrastructure investment, education and digital economy to achieve sustainable growth and generate jobs in smaller cities. Traders may take note of Union Minister Nitin Gadkari's statement that India is committed to an eminently achievable clean energy-based economy, and added that the country will soon have a policy for flex-fuel engines. Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal launched the National Single Window System for businesses and said the portal will usher in freedom from the legacy of running to government offices for approvals and registrations. However, there may be some cautiousness as India recorded a spike of 31,957 new Covid-19 cases in the past 24 hours. The country also witnessed 279 deaths, taking the death toll to 446,080. So far, India has recorded 33,562,034 corona cases in total. Delhi reported 30 Covid-19 cases and no fatality. Kerala recorded 26,964 new Covid-19 cases and Maharashtra 3,608 cases. Oil & Gas industry stocks will be in focus as the government in its latest data showed that India's crude oil production fell 2.3 per cent in August but natural gas output rose by more than a fifth on the back of output from KG-D6 fields of Reliance-BP. There will be some reaction in mineral related industry stocks as the mines ministry said India's mineral production rose by 23.1 per cent in June over the same month a year ago. The index of mineral production of mining and quarrying sector for the month of June 2021 at 105.5, was 23.1 per cent higher as compared to the level in the month of June 2020.


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  • Kotak Mahindra Bank has forayed into the healthcare lending space, where it will be taking exposures of up to Rs 15 crore apiece. 
  • L&T's business -- The Metallurgical and Material Handling has commissioned the 0.5 MTPA expansion project of Utkal Alumina International. 
  • Bajaj Auto has opened online booking for the Chetak Electric scooter in Hyderabad at www.chetak.com on payment of Rs 2000. 
  • Infosys has entered into strategic collaboration with Amazon Web Services to develop quantum computing capabilities and use cases.
News Analysis