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NSE Intra-day chart (22 February 2023)
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Market Commentary 23 February 2023
Markets likely to open in green on F&O expiry day


Dalal Street suffered deep losses on Wednesday, with both Sensex and Nifty ending near their intraday low points, as bears held a tight grip over the markets. Investors await an official quarterly reading of India's GDP for more clarity on the state of the economy and the future course of interest rates. After a negative start, weakness persisted for the whole trading day, as traders got concerned after the State Bank of India (SBI) projected a GDP growth of 4.6% for the December quarter, citing that as many as 30 high frequency indicators are not as robust as they were in the previous quarters. Besides, India Ratings projected a dip in FY24 growth to 5.9%, lower than Reserve Bank's 6.4%. Losses got intensified during the second half of the trading session, amid weakness across global markets. Russia's nuclear rhetoric and the threat of world war remained on the minds of investors. Domestic sentiments remained negative, amid a private report stating that the Reserve Bank of India will increase its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% in April and then pause until the end of 2023. Traders took a note of another private report stating that the Indian rupee's expected volatility against the dollar over the next one month hit its lowest level in almost seven months on Tuesday, February 21, tracking the currency's recent narrow trading range and on expectations of the central bank's continued support. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 927.74 points or 1.53% to 59,744.98 and the CNX Nifty was down by 272.40 points or 1.53% to 17,554.30.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January 31-February 1 monetary policy meeting. The minutes revealed a few participants favored raising rates by 50 basis points compared to the 25 basis point rate hike that was ultimately announced. The Fed said the participants favoring a 50-basis point increase noted that a larger increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, taking into account their views of the risks to achieving price stability in a timely way. The Fed members eventually agreed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50 to 4.75 percent. The smaller rate hike came after the central bank raised rates by 75 basis points in November and by 50 basis points in December. The minutes noted all participants continued to anticipate that ongoing rate increases would be appropriate to achieve the Fed's dual goals of maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The minutes acknowledged that inflationary pressures have moderated but noted price growth remains well above the Fed's 2 percent target, with labor market tightness contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices. The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 21-22.


Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Wednesday as investors became more concerned that recent economic data will mean more aggressive interest rate increases by central banks. Minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed a majority of Fed officials agreed that the risks of high inflation remained a key factor shaping monetary policy and warranted continued rate hikes until it was controlled. Besides, the U.S. dollar Index gained for a second straight session, making greenback-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery fell $2.41 or 3.1 percent to $73.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery dropped $2.45 or 3 percent at $80.60 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. 


Indian rupee tumbled against dollar on Wednesday, as intense selling pressure in domestic equities and a strong greenback overseas dented the sentiment. Traders were concerned as U.S. Treasury yields hit new highs on expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates for longer than anticipated. Further, weakness prevailed after India Ratings projected a dip in FY24 growth to 5.9%, lower than Reserve Bank's 6.4%. On the global front, dollar and sterling found support on Wednesday after a surprise rebound in business activity in the United States and the UK raised the likelihood that their respective central banks would have further to go in raising interest rates. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.89 (Provisional), weaker by 10 paise from its previous close of 82.79 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5750.38 crore against gross selling of Rs 4721.62 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 719.69 crore against gross selling of Rs 1439.08 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 16.52 crore against gross selling of Rs 39.11 crore.


The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday as Federal Reserve officials hinted that there were signs of inflation coming down, but not enough to pause more rate hikes. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday tracking weakness on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets tumbled on Wednesday, along with global peers, on resurgent worries that the US Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates more than what the Street has been factoring in. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start on a monthly F&O expiry day amid mixed cues from global peers.  Some support will come as ahead of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Bengaluru, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reiterated that India's strong performance remains a bright spot in an uncertain global economy. Traders may take note of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva's statement that India, which has taken it upon itself to be carbon neutral by 2070, could achieve this ambitious goal even earlier. However, foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments in domestic markets. Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 579.82 crore on February 22, NSE's provisional data showed. Traders may be concerned as the latest Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade data showed that foreign direct investment (FDI) into India declined by 15 per cent to $36.75 billion during the April-December this fiscal. The FDI inflows stood at $43.17 billion during the corresponding period of the previous year. There may be some cautiousness as the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)'s Feb 6-8 meeting showed an increasing degree of concern among most members over persistent inflationary pressures, with the rate-setting panel largely flagging stubbornly high core inflation. Coal industry stocks will be in focus as the coal ministry said that 27 coal mines would be put on sale in the next round of commercial mines auction starting from February 27.  There will be some reaction in power generating companies' stocks with report that power generating companies that incur high variable costs due to fuel expenses and other charges will soon able to sell electricity at a price of up to Rs 50 per unit on energy exchanges.


                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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  • State Bank of India has successfully raised Rs 4,544 crore through Non-Convertible, Taxable, Perpetual, Subordinated, Unsecured, Fully Paid Up Basel III compliant AT 1 Bonds at a coupon of 8.20% p.a. 
  • Coal India is in the process of converting its abandoned mines into eco-parks which have become popular as eco-tourism destinations.
  • Wipro's innovation lab -- Wipro Lab45 has launched its DICE ID, which puts users in control of their personal data and enables faster, easier and secure sharing of private information online.
  • M&M has entered into an Asset Transfer agreement with MEAL for transfer of certain identified assets pertaining to the 4 Wheel Passenger Electric Vehicles to MEAL; the transfer of balance assets to be completed by June 30, 2026.
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