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NSE Intra-day chart (21 November 2022)
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Market Commentary 22 November 2022
Benchmarks likely to get flat-to-positive start on Tuesday

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended Monday on a negative note, dragged down by IT, Power and Utilities stocks, while the likelihood of tighter U.S. monetary policy and worsening COVID-19 infection numbers in China weighed on sentiment. Markets made weak start and stayed in red for whole day as traders were concerned as the latest payroll data released by the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation showed the number of fresh formal jobs created fell for the second consecutive month in September, declining 9 per cent sequentially to 930,000. Enrolment of new female subscribers fell faster (11.39 per cent) than their male counterparts (8.13 per cent) in September, compared with the previous month. Some concern also came as the provisional data available on NSE showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net offloaded shares worth Rs 751.20 crore on 18 November. Markets remained under pressure in late afternoon deals amid private report that the Indian economy which claimed the title of the fastest-growing major economy in the previous fiscal is likely to lose its momentum in 2023 owing to higher borrowing costs and fading benefits from the Covid pandemic reopening. It stated gross domestic product may expand by 5.9% in the calendar year 2023 from an estimated 6.9% this year. Sentiments remained downbeat as the gross fiscal deficit of the Indian states rose nearly 79 per cent after the lockdown. According to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the fiscal deficit rose from Rs 5.2 trillion in FY20 to Rs 9.3 trillion in 2020-21 (FY21). Traders overlooked data showing that retail inflation for farm and rural workers eased marginally to 7.22 per cent and 7.34 per cent, respectively, in October compared to September 2022, mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. Markets participants also paid no heed towards former Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that India will still grow at 6-7 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal even as the economy may be affected by uncertain global conditions. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 518.64 points or 0.84% to 61,144.84 and the CNX Nifty was down by 147.70 points or 0.81% to 18,159.95.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday on concerns about the outlook for the global economy amid a surge in new Covid cases in China. China reported the death of three people after contracting Covid, marking the first Covid-related deaths that China's mainland has reported since May. The surge in new cases had led China to impose stringent restrictions in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, shattering recent hopes the country would soon ease Covid curbs. A lack of major US economic data also kept some traders on the sidelines, although reports on durable goods orders and new home sales are likely to attract attention on Wednesday along with the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. On the sectoral front, Energy stocks regained ground after an early sell-off but still ended the considerably lower, with the Philadelphia Oil Service Index tumbling by 2.3 percent and the NYSE Arca Oil Index falling by 1.5 percent. The weakness among energy stocks came as the price of crude oil for December recovered after plunging to a ten-month low but still closed down $0.35 at $79.73 a barrel. Computer hardware and semiconductor stocks also saw significant weakness on the day, contributing to the steep drop by the Nasdaq. Housing and biotechnology stocks also moved to the downside, while some strength was visible among steel and utilities stocks.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday on private report stated that Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are likely to discuss increasing output during their meeting in December. Further, worries about the outlook for demand from China contributed to the slump by oil prices following a surge in Covid-19 cases in the country and the imposition of stringent restrictions in several cities, including Shanghai and Beijing. Besides, a stronger dollar also hurt oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery lost $0.35 or about 0.4 percent at $79.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $0.31 or about 0.33 percent to settle at $87.31 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Monday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Traders were worried as the gross fiscal deficit of the Indian states rose nearly 79 per cent after the lockdown. According to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the fiscal deficit rose from Rs 5.2 trillion in FY20 to Rs 9.3 trillion in 2020-21 (FY21). On the global front, U.S. dollar rallied against major currencies on Monday, as rising COVID-19 cases in China led to new restrictions there and weighed on global investor sentiment. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.81 (Provisional), weaker by 7 paisa from its previous close of 81.74 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7977.41 crore against gross selling of Rs 7705.20 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 857.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 464.20 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 117.18 crore against gross selling of Rs 130.74 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday as a slide in technology companies offset gains elsewhere in the market. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday amid concerns over Covid cases in China and hawkish Fed commentary. Indian markets ended lower on Monday and extended losses for a third straight session, as concerns over fresh COVID curbs in China and a hawkish Fed policy dented demand for riskier assets. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues. Some support will come as India and the European Union (EU) signed an agreement on cooperation in areas such as climate modelling and quantum technologies, building on the Trade and Technology Council launched by the two sides earlier this year. Traders may take note report that the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has suggested a cut in personal income tax rates to revive demand -- a move which would benefit 5.83 crore taxpayers who have filed returns for assessment year 2022-23. CII further suggested reducing the highest 28 per cent GST slab on consumer durables. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will hold pre-budget consultations with her state counterparts on Friday. However, some cautiousness may come as rating agencies Crisil and Icra revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. Traders may be concerned as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net offloaded shares worth Rs 1,593.83 crore on 21 November, according to the provisional data available on the NSE. Metal stocks will be in focus as Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia said removal of export duty on steel products will lead to a new era of growth for the domestic steel industry which has gained footprint internationally. There will be some reaction in fertilizer industry stocks as the country imported 23.4 lakh tonne of fertilisers, including urea and Di-ammonium Phosphate (DAP), in October this year. Besides, Kaynes Technology shares will debut on bourses. The Electronics manufacturing company shares are expected to put up a stellar performance despite recent volatility and consolidation in the equity market.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,159.95

18,108.10

18,237.05

BSE Sensex

61,144.84

60,984.01

61,381.01

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

584.04

104.10

102.74

106.59

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation

163.49

135.65

134.59

136.54

NTPC

127.89

164.40

163.64

165.69

Tata Motors

94.98

420.30

417.66

425.26

ICICI Bank

92.46

921.00

915.10

925.85

 

  • Tata Motors has entered into a partnership with GEHU, in Bhimtal, Uttarakhand to provide M.Tech degree in EV technology to its employees working at the Pantnagar Plant.
  • Bharat Petroleum Corporation has commissioned its first in and out store at Solanki Fuels, in Chhattisgarh district. 
  • HDFC Bank is planning to add over 100 branches in Kerala in the next 12 months and leading to the creation of 1000 jobs. 
  • Bharti Airtel has launched its cutting edge 5G services in Guwahati - Gateway to North East India.
News Analysis