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NSE Intra-day chart (21 October 2021)
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Market Commentary 22 October 2021
Benchmarks to make positive start amid mixed global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks closed lower for the third day in a row on weekly F&O expiry day, as index heavyweights such as Asian Paints, Reliance Industries and Infosys reeled under selling pressure. Key Indian indices slumped after opening in the green, as traders turned cautious with report stated that amid concerns about the rising oil prices, India, the world's third-largest energy consumer, has warned that high oil prices will undermine global economic recovery, and nudged Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to work towards affordable and reliable supplies. Petrol and diesel prices have shot up to record highs across the country after relentless price increases since early May. Some cautiousness also came as data showed that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,843.09 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1,680.73 crore in the Indian equity market on Wednesday. However, markets managed to recover some lost ground in the last hour of trade, as some optimism remained among traders with Moody's Analytics in a report said that a rebound in industrial production and demand owing to easing mobility restrictions fuelled India's current recovery with production appearing to have regained lost ground during the second Covid-19 wave. However, it has flagged concerns around volatility in inflation caused by rising food and fuel prices. Some support also came with Ratings and Research's (Ind-Ra) report stated that it witnessed a continuous recovery in the average current collection efficiency to 80 percent in August 2021 from 79 percent in July 2021 across its 143 rated securitisation transactions. It noted that there has been a 10 percentage point increase in the collection efficiency since May 2021 for all the outstanding transactions, after reducing by 13.4 percentage points from March-May 2021. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 336.46 points or 0.55% to 60,923.50 and the CNX Nifty was down by 88.50 points or 0.48% to 18,178.10.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Thursday with S&P 500 reaching a new record closing high. The strength on markets came after a report from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged lower in the week ended October 16th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims slipped to 290,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level of 296,000. The modest decrease surprised participants, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 300,000 from the 293,000 originally reported for the previous week. With the unexpected dip, jobless claims once again fell to their lowest level since hitting 256,000 in the week ended March 14, 2020. Further, support also came in as the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a report showing existing home sales rebounded by much more than expected in the month of September. NAR said existing home sales spiked by 7.0 percent to an annual rate of 6.29 million in September after slumping by 2.0 percent to a rate of 5.88 million in August. Street had expected existing home sales to jump by 3.6 percent to a rate of 6.09 million. Existing home sales reached their highest annual rate since January but were still down by 2.3 percent compared to the same month a year ago. Besides, upbeat earnings reports also contributed to the continued advance, with shares of Tesla (TSLA) moving notably higher after the electric car maker reported better than expected third quarter results.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday on profit taking after recent strong gains. Further, lower coal and natural gas prices also contributed to oil prices' decrease. Coal prices dropped by about 11% in China after the country indicated it might intervene to tame record high coal prices and that it would ensure coal mines operate at full capacity. Meanwhile, Kuwait has reportedly begun to increase its crude production in accordance with an agreement reached by OPEC+. Benchmark Crude oil futures for December delivery fell $0.92 or 1.1 percent to settle at $82.50 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery dropped $1.19 or 1.4 percent to settle at $84.63 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee shed most of its early gain but still managed to end marginally higher against the American currency on Thursday, due to selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Traders took some support as the revival of the Indian economy from the impasse of global pandemic gains momentum with the nationwide rapid COVID vaccination drive. However, upside remained capped as India, the world's third-largest energy consumer and importer, warned of high oil prices hurting the nascent and fragile global economic recovery. Besides, losses in the local equity markets also dampened sentiments. On the global front, sterling dipped below one-month highs on Thursday, tracking a similar move in risk-oriented currencies that lost some momentum against the dollar after a rally fuelled by rising prices for commodities. Finally, the rupee ended 74.87, stronger by 1 paise from its previous close of 74.88 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 15655.10 crore against gross selling of Rs 17324.17 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1135.82 crore with gross sales of Rs 1190.71 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 14.17 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Thursday as sentiments boosted by such high-profile stocks as Tesla Inc and Microsoft Corp but a tumble in IBM shares weighed on the Dow. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday with MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan last seen trading down 0.1 percent. Indian markets extended losses to third straight day on Thursday, dragged by IT, metal and consumer stocks. Sharp gains in financial shares kept the downside in check. Today, benchmarks are likely to start session on a positive note, amid mixed global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement with Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that Indian economy is expected to grow 10.5 per cent or more in the current fiscal. He also said that modernisation of the retail sector is very much on the cards. Some support might also come as ICRA stated that with half of the 15 high-frequency indicators recovering to the pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter, the economy finally looks nearly out of the pandemic woods, helping the Q2 GDP print at 7.7 per cent. Additionally, Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has exuded confidence that India will become a $5-trillion economy by 2024-25 and $10-trillion by 2030. Traders may take note of Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that all indicators, including GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and exports growth, are pointing towards a clear and sharp economic recovery in the country. Meanwhile, according to Reserve Bank of India data, the credit dispensed by commercial banks in India rose by 6.47 per cent on a year-on-year basis (Y-o-Y basis) to Rs 110.3 trillion as on October 08, 2021. The pace of credit is shed higher than 5.7 per cent a year ago. However, traders may be concerned as foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said even as trade between India and China continues to expand, it remains unbalanced and is tilted in the favour of China. With a deficit at $47 billion in the first nine months of this year, it the largest deficit India has with any country. There may be some cautiousness as Union Power Secretary Alok Kumar stressed on the need to have strategic fuel reserves to insulate the nation from supply shocks for at least a month, in the backdrop of the ongoing coal shortage at power plants in the country. Banking stocks will be in focus with a report that the government is likely to pump capital in public sector banks during the last quarter of the current financial year to meet the regulatory requirements. The government in the Budget 2021-22 has made an allocation of Rs 20,000 crore for the capital infusion in the state-owned banks. Also, the focus will be on Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries (RIL) that is scheduled to announce its results for the September quarter (Q2FY22) later in the day. There will be some other earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,178.10

18,022.66

18,358.86

BSE Sensex

60,923.50

60,399.04

61,534.59

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

554.42

508.95

493.00

517.65

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

478.16

156.25

153.76

159.51

ITC

340.80

244.70

242.41

247.66

NTPC

212.15

148.25

146.59

149.24

State Bank of India

171.18

504.45

495.30

510.05

 

  • Mahindra & Mahindra is all set to deliver its recently launched model XUV700 from October end. 
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank and Mumbai Police Cyber Crime have joined hands to raise awareness about safe banking habits and to safeguard the public at large from falling victim to cybercrime. 
  • UPL's step down subsidiary -- UPL Global has entered into definitive agreement for acquisition of 80% stake in equity share capital of PT Excel Meg Indo - Indonesia. 
  • Tata Motors has launched its annual customer-engagement program, the Grahak Samvaad, from October 20 to 28, 2021.
News Analysis