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NSE Intra-day chart (20 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 21 November 2023
Markets likely to get positive start on firm global cues

Indian equity benchmarks stayed on the back foot for the second straight session on Monday due to selling in Auto, Basic Materials and Utilities stocks. After the flat start, markets oscillated in a narrow range as traders were cautious with S&P Global Ratings stating that the hike in risk weights for consumer loans like personal loan and credit cards may shave-off tier I capital of banks by 60 basis points, hit loan growth, and squeeze the nonbank sector in particular. S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Geeta Chugh said the finance companies will be worse affected as their incremental bank borrowing costs will surge, in addition to the capital adequacy impact. Some concern also came with exchange data showing that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 477.76 crore on Friday. Markets added losses in late morning deals, as sentiments remained down-beat with the Reserve Bank's statement that India's forex kitty decreased by $462 million to $590.321 billion for the week ended November 10. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had increased by $4.672 billion to $590.783 billion. Investors continued to trade with caution amid uncertainty over the ongoing West Asia conflict and global economic slowdown concerns. However, in last hours of trade, losses remained capped as traders took some support with Additional Secretary and DGFT Director General Santosh Kumar Sarangi's statement that Indian e-commerce exports are likely to touch $200 billion in the next 6-7 years and will play a critical role in achieving the $2 trillion goods and services export target. Some support also came as Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the Union government V Anantha Nageswaran stated that startups will play an important role in helping India become the third largest economy in the world. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 139.58 points or 0.21% to 65,655.15 and the CNX Nifty was down by 37.80 points or 0.19% to 19,694.00.

The US markets ended higher on Monday as treasuries yields pulled back following the release of the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $16 billion worth of twenty-year bonds. Further, the strength on markets partly reflected recent upward momentum, which comes amid ongoing optimism about the outlook for interest rates. Recent data showing signs of easing inflation has reinforced investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at upcoming meetings. Potentially shedding additional light on the outlook for rates, the Fed is due to release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. On the sectoral front, tobacco stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, with the NYSE Arca Tobacco Index soaring by 4.2 percent to its best closing level in well over three months. Significant strength also emerged among software stocks, as reflected by the 1.8 percent gain posted by the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index. Airline stocks also saw considerable strength, driving the NYSE Arca Airline Index up by 1.6 percent to a two-month closing high. On the economic data front, the Conference Board released a report showing its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators fell by more than expected in the month of October. The report said the leading economic index slid by 0.8 percent in October after falling by 0.7 percent in September. Street had expected the index to decrease by 0.6 percent. The bigger than expected drop by the index reflected deteriorating consumers' expectations for business conditions, lower ISM Index of New Orders, falling equities, and tighter credit conditions.

Crude oil futures ended higher with gain of over two percent on Monday on expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, collectively known as OPEC+ will decide to further extend their voluntary output cuts when they meet next week. The said cuts include additional voluntary reduction announced by Russia and Saudi Arabia. Further, the dollar's weakness contributed as well to the jump in oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery rose $1.79 or about 2.4 percent to settle at $77.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery surged $1.85 or nearly 2.30 percent to settle at $82.32 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended lower on Monday tracking a negative trend in domestic equities. Foreign fund outflows also weighed on the local unit. Traders were worried as Reserve Bank said India's forex kitty decreased by $462 million to $590.321 billion for the week ended November 10. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had increased by $4.672 billion to $590.783 billion. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings said the hike in risk weights for consumer loans like personal loan and credit cards may shave-off tier I capital of banks by 60 basis points, hit loan growth, and squeeze the nonbank sector in particular. On the global front, dollar slid to a more than two-month low on Monday, extending a downtrend from last week as traders reaffirmed their belief that U.S. rates have peaked and turned their attention to when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.37 (Provisional), weaker by 11 paise from its previous close of 83.26 on Friday.

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11600.26 crore against gross selling of Rs 11973.00 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 933.11 crore with gross sales of Rs 1107.05 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 17.89 crore against gross selling of Rs 21.67 crore.

The US markets ended higher on Monday amid ongoing optimism about the outlook for interest rates. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday following overnight gains on Wall Street after a tech-fueled rally. Indian markets ended slightly lower on Monday, marking the second consecutive day of fall, amid weakness in the autos, metal and FMCG space. Today, markets are likely to get positive start tracking cues from the global peers. A dip in US Treasury yields may aid domestic sentiments. Some support will come with a private report that India Inc's net profit as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is just shy of reaching 5 per cent, bolstered by strong earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023-24. Traders may take note of Moody's Investors Service's statement that the RBI's decision to tighten norms for unsecured personal loans is credit positive because lenders will need to allocate higher capital for such loans, thus improving their loss-absorbing buffers. However, foreign fund outflows may dampen sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors net sold shares worth Rs 645.72 crore on November 20. Besides, retail inflation for agricultural labourers and rural workers rose marginally to 7.08 per cent and 6.92 per cent in October, respectively, from 6.70 per cent and 6.55 per cent respectively in September 2023 due to higher prices of certain food items. There may be some cautiousness with a private report that India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023. Traders may be concerned as fresh formal job creation cooled for the second consecutive month to decline to a six-month low in September, signalling a downturn in the labour markets this financial year. The latest payroll data released by the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) showed that the number of new monthly subscribers under the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) declined by 6.45 per cent to 891,583 in September from 953,092 in August. Meanwhile, SEBI chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch has said she is confused and surprised at investor interest in Futures and Options (F&O) despite 90 per cent of individuals losing money in the segment. Stocks related to gold may remain in focus as India's October gold imports surged 60% from a year earlier to a 31-month high as a drop in prices ahead of a key festival prompted jewellers to ramp up purchases. In primary market, The IPO of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) is set to open on November 21.

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  • Larsen & Toubro's Hydrocarbon Business -- L&T Energy Hydrocarbon has received a Letter of Intent for mega Offshore order from a prestigious client in the Middle East.
  • TCS has signed an agreement with Australia's primary securities exchange, ASX, to provide a next generation clearing and settlement platform to service the Australian market.
  • Maruti Suzuki India has received shareholders' approval to issue shares on a preferential basis to SMC as consideration for a related party transaction for the acquisition of 100% stake in Suzuki Motor Gujarat.    
  • Cipla has received a warning letter from USFDA for the routine current Good Manufacturing Practices inspection conducted at its Pithampur manufacturing facility between February 6th -17th, 2023.

News Analysis