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NSE Intra-day chart (18 November 2022)
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Market Commentary 21 November 2022
Markets to get negative start tracking weakness in Asian counterparts

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for the second session on Friday, dragged by Auto, Oil & Gas and Energy stocks. After making slightly positive start, key gauges soon turned lower, as traders were anxious with Moody's Investors Service stating that a combination of weak growth in advanced economies, persistent inflationary pressures, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tight financial conditions, and a subdued growth outlook for China will create a difficult environment for emerging markets (EM) in 2023. As regards India, Moody's said food and fuel remain the main drivers of inflation because they represent a larger share of the consumption basket. For example, rising food prices have contributed to almost half of the growth in headline inflation this year in India. Markets added losses in afternoon deals, as sentiments remain dampened after S&P Global Ratings in its latest report has stated that polarization in the performance of Indian banks may persist in 2023 as many large public-sector banks are still saddled with weak assets, high credit costs, and poor earnings. Similarly, the agency expects a mixed-bag performance for finance companies (fincos). It said the asset quality of these fincos is often weaker than that of major private-sector banks. Some concern also came as a private report said taking binding commitments on new issues like environment, labour and sustainability in the proposed free trade agreements (FTA), being negotiated by India, may hamper the country's exports in the future. However, indices recouped most of their losses in late afternoon deals, as traders took some support with provisional data available on the NSE showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 618.37 crore on November 17. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 87.12 points or 0.14% to 61,663.48 and the CNX Nifty was down by 36.25 points or 0.20% to 18,307.65.

 

The US markets trimmed some of their gains and ended the choppy session in green on Friday. The initial strength on Wall Street partly reflected a positive reaction to upbeat earnings news from some big-name companies. Apparel retailer Gap (GPS) moved sharply higher after unexpectedly returning to profitability in the third quarter on sales that exceeded analyst estimates. Shares of Foot Locker (FL) also spiked after the athletic footwear and apparel retailer reported better than expected third quarter results and raised its full-year guidance. Discount retailer Ross Stores (ROST) and cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks (PANW) also posted standout gains after reporting quarterly results that beat expectations. Though, buying interest faded shortly after the start of trading with some disappointing U.S. economic data. The National Association of Realtors released a report showing a substantial decrease in existing home sales in the month of October. NAR said existing home sales plummeted by 5.9 percent to an annual rate of 4.43 million in October after slumping by 1.5 percent to a rate of 4.71 million in September. A separate report released by the Conference Board showed a much bigger than expected decrease by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of October. The Conference Board said its leading economic slumped by 0.8 percent in October after falling by a revised 0.5 percent in September. Street had expected the index to decrease by 0.4 percent, matching the drop originally reported for the previous month.

 

Extending their previous session's losses, crude oil futures closed in red on Friday with cut of around 2% amid concerns about outlook for demand from China, and easing worries about supply. A firm dollar also weighed down on oil prices. Baker Hughes reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by one to 623 this week. That followed an increase of nine in the previous week, and is a third straight weekly rise. The total active U.S. rig count, which includes those drilling for natural gas, climbed by three to 782. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $1.56 or about 1.9 percent at $80.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $2.16 or about 2.4 percent to settle at $87.62 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee concluded weaker against dollar on Friday on account of continued dollar demand from importers and banks and lackluster trend in domestic equities. Sentiments remained pessimistic with Moody's Investors Service's statement that a combination of weak growth in advanced economies, persistent inflationary pressures, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tight financial conditions, and a subdued growth outlook for China will create a difficult environment for emerging markets (EM) in 2023. As regards India, Moody's said food and fuel remain the main drivers of inflation because they represent a larger share of the consumption basket. On the global front, dollar eased on Friday, but was still headed for its largest weekly gain in a month, after Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to raising U.S. interest rates more than markets currently anticipate. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.70 (Provisional), weaker by 6 paisa from its previous close of 81.64 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8400.76 crore against gross selling of Rs 6817.48 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 854.53 crore against gross selling of Rs 331.02 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.96 crore against gross selling of Rs 23.76 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday as gains in defensive shares overshadowed energy declines, and investors shrugged off hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials about interest rate hikes. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday as China's central bank kept its benchmark lending rates, or loan prime rates, on hold - in line with expectations. Indian markets stayed on the back foot and ended with cut of around 0.15% each on Friday as investors offloaded auto, finance, and energy stocks amid a lacklustre trend in global markets. Today, markets are likely to start F&O series expiry week on negative note tracking weakness in Asian counterparts. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments in the markets. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net offloaded shares worth Rs 751.20 crore on 18 November, according to the provisional data available on NSE. Traders will be concerned as the latest payroll data released by the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation showed the number of fresh formal jobs created fell for the second consecutive month in September, declining 9 per cent sequentially to 930,000. Enrolment of new female subscribers fell faster (11.39 per cent) than their male counterparts (8.13 per cent) in September, compared with the previous month. However, some respite may come as former Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar said India will still grow at 6-7 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal even as the economy may be affected by uncertain global conditions. Traders may take encouragement as Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal said India is on track to become a developed nation. He added that India will be a $30 trillion economy by 2047, becoming one of the top economies of the world. Some support may come as retail inflation for farm and rural workers eased marginally to 7.22 per cent and 7.34 per cent, respectively, in October compared to September 2022, mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. Besides, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) weekly statistical supplement showed that India's foreign exchange reserves rose to $544.72 billion in the week through Nov. 11, marking their biggest weekly jump in more than a year. Meanwhile, investors focus now will shift to the budget movements as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will kick-start the customary pre-budget meetings beginning Monday with a special focus on issues concerning climate change and infrastructure. Banking stocks will be in focus S&P Global Market Intelligence in a report on the Indian banking sector said that the rising interest rates will enable Indian banks to continue posting good profits during the remaining part of FY23. There will be some reaction in gem and jewellery sector stocks as GJEPC said the gem and jewellery exports declined 14.64 per cent in October at Rs 25,843.84 crore due to seasonal trend as manufacturing activities are limited or closed during Diwali. Moreover, Archean Chemical Industries and Five Star Business Finance will debut on the BSE and NSE today. Archean Chemical IPO was subscribed 32.23 times. The price for the issue has been at Rs 407 per share.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,307.65

18,213.44

18,398.24

BSE Sensex

61,663.48

61,357.32

61,949.77

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

289.92

105.50

104.70

106.30

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation

199.59

141.75

140.21

143.26

State Bank of India

129.34

602.70

597.99

606.59

NTPC

111.35

165.85

164.29

168.24

ICICI Bank

108.74

920.35

913.26

924.71

 

  • UltraTech Cement has commenced third Birla White Wall Care Putty plant at Nathdwara, Rajasthan with a capacity of 4 LMT per annum, at a total cost of Rs 187 crore. 
  • Wipro has opened its Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa Strategic Market Unit Headquarters in Dubai, UAE. 
  • HDFC has further sold 12,63,898 shares representing 2.13% of the paid-up share capital of Ansal Housing.
  • Tech Mahindra has entered into a strategic partnership with Basis Technologies to accelerate delivery of smart utility solutions across Europe and US.
News Analysis