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NSE Intra-day chart (20 October 2021)
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Market Commentary 21 October 2021
Markets to open in green on positive global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks were closed with losses for the second straight day on Wednesday amid heightened volatility, due to profit-booking at higher levels. Weakness across sectors, led by consumer durables, basic materials, metal and utilities shares pulled the markets lower. After making cautious start, markets slipped into the red, as traders got anxious with a private report stating that rising global commodity prices, led by crude, coal and metals, will shave a lot off the current account leading to higher imports and a rise in current account deficit, which is likely to print at 1.3 per cent of the GDP or $40 billion, up from 0.9 per cent surplus last fiscal. Selling further crept in, as International Monetary Fund downgraded its 2021 economic growth forecast for Asia after the highly infectious Covid-19 delta variant caused a spike in cases in parts of the region. Traders also took a note of rating agency Crisil's report stated that gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of Indian banks may rise to 8-9 percent in the current financial year (FY22) but this will be much below the FY18 levels when NPAs reached a peak of 11.2 percent. However, key gauges manage to trimmed some losses in last minutes of trading session, as traders took some support with Services Export Promotion Council (SEPC) stating that the country's services exports are expected to reach over $240 billion during 2021-22 on account of healthy performance by segments such as professional and management consulting services, audio visual, freight transport services, and telecommunications. Some support also came with Minister of State for Electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar's statement that the government is looking at rolling out a five-year strategic perspective plan to make India a significant tech player. Meanwhile, GST Council is likely to consider one single tax rate for online gaming, racecourses, casinos and that could be as high as 28%. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 456.09 points or 0.74% to 61,259.96 and the CNX Nifty was down by 152.15 points or 0.83% to 18,266.60.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday as investors' sentiment was boosted by better-than-expected earnings reports and a new record for bitcoin. Shares of Verizon saw notable strength after the telecom giant reported better than expected third quarter earnings and raised its full-year guidance. Bitcoin soared over $66,000, notching a fresh high for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has been climbing for four weeks amid positive regulatory developments and anticipation of the first bitcoin-linked ETF. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF began trading Tuesday. However, gains remained capped as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which noted the pace of US economic growth has recently slowed. The Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in each of the twelve Fed districts, attributed the slowdown to supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and uncertainty around the Delta variant of COVID-19. The Fed also said employment increased at a modest to moderate rate in recent weeks, as demand for workers was high, but labor growth was dampened by a low supply of workers. On the sectoral front, banking stocks turned in some of the market's best performances on the day, driving the KBW Bank Index up by 2 percent to a record closing high. Significant strength was also visible among housing stocks, as reflected by 1.7 percent gain posted by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. The index ended the session at its best closing level in over a month. Utility stocks also saw considerable strength on the day, resulting in a 1.5 percent advance by the Dow Jones Utilities Average. The average also reached a one-month closing high.

 

Crude oil futures settled higher on Wednesday after data showed a drop in US crude inventories in the week ended October 15. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US crude stockpiles dropped by 431,000 barrels last week, against expectations for an increase. The data said gaeoline stockpiles declined by over 5.37 million barrels in the week, while distillate stocks dropped by 3.91 million barrels. The EIA data also said inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub dropped to the lowest level in three years. Besides, increased demand for oil due to the ongoing energy crunch in several countries including China contributed as well to the uptick in oil prices. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said users switching from gas to oil could account for demand of 500,000 - 600,000 barrels per day. Benchmark Crude oil futures for December delivery rose $0.98 or 1.2 percent to settle at $83.42 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery surged $0.61 or 0.72 percent to settle at $85.69 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended substantially higher against dollar on Wednesday as banks and exporters continued to sell the US currency. Sentiments were upbeat as Services Export Promotion Council (SEPC) stated that India's services exports are expected to reach over $240 billion during 2021-22. It is also seeking incentives from the government. Additional support came in as External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar said that Indian and Israeli officials have agreed on the resumption of Free Trade negotiations and talks will start in November this year. On the global front, sterling laboured below a one-month high on Wednesday as traders said a dip in September inflation was unlikely to stop the Bank of England from raising interest rates soon. Finally, the rupee ended 74.88, stronger by 47 paise from its previous close of 75.35 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 22525.76 crore against gross selling of Rs 22477.01 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs. 292.30 crore with gross sales of Rs 720.74 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 73.27 crore against gross selling of Rs 93.48 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday as investors eyed better-than-expected third-quarter earnings from corporates. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday following overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets suffered sharp losses on Wednesday, falling for a second straight day on selling pressure across most sectors led by auto, metal, oil & gas, FMCG and consumer goods. Today, benchmarks are likely to start session on a positive note amid positive global cues and the ongoing earnings season. Some support will come as US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry said India's goal of reaching 450 GW of renewable energy (RE) by 2030 is doable as it has already crossed the 100 GW RE mark. Traders may take note of as Moody's Analytics said in a report on reopening in the Asia Pacific region that a rebound in industrial production and demand owing to easing mobility restrictions fuelled India's current recovery with production appearing to have regained lost ground during the second Covid-19 wave. However, it has flagged concerns around volatility in inflation caused by rising food and fuel prices. Meanwhile, In a bid to avert power crisis being triggered in the country due to fuel shortages in the months following monsoon rains, the government proposes revise the coal stocking norms for thermal power plants, based on regular shift stock limits, depending on the actual fuel requirement during a particular period. Though, there may be some cautiousness as India, the world's third-largest energy consumer and importer, warned of high oil prices hurting the nascent and fragile global economic recovery. Telecom stocks will be in limelight reacting to their subscribers' data. Reliance Jio continued to outpace rivals in terms of subscriber gains. It added 6 lakh users, in August, whereas Bharti Airtel onboarded over 1 lakh users. Metal sector stocks will be in focus as rating agency ICRA revised its non-ferrous metals sector outlook to positive from stable on the back of robust prices and improving demand despite a near-term concern of coal availability and increased cost of production for the non-ferrous metal companies. There will be some reaction in banking indusrty stocks as ICRA in its report said that the Indian banking sector is insulated against Covid-19. As per ICRA's estimates the Gross Non Performing Assets (GNPAs) and Net Non-Performing Assets (NNPAs) are expected to further decline to 6.9-7.0 percent and 2.2.-2.3 percent by March 2022 which will continue to be a relief for the bottom-line of lenders.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,266.60

18,164.54

18,413.49

BSE Sensex

61,259.96

60,952.72

61,723.79

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

554.42

489.70

474.96

500.71

ITC

478.16

246.50

243.06

249.21

State Bank of India

340.80

501.20

487.04

511.44

Bharti Airtel

212.15

708.10

688.36

720.86

Power Grid Corporation of India

171.18

155.05

152.69

158.39

 

  • HCL Technologies has collaborated with Innovaccer Inc., a health cloud company, to help healthcare and life sciences organizations drive digital health transformation. 
  • Reliance Industries' subsidiary -- Reliance Retail Ventures has acquired a 52 per cent stake in veteran couturier Ritu Kumar's firm Ritika for an undisclosed amount. 
  • Nestle India has reported 5.16% rise in its net profit at Rs 617.37 crore for Q3CY21 as compared to net profit of Rs 587.09 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 
  • IndusInd Bank has launched EMI facility on Debit cards to enable its customers to convert their high value transactions into easy installments.  
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