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Market Commentary 19 September 2022
Markets to start new week on cautious note amid weak global cues


Indian equity benchmarks traded lower for the third consecutive session and ended with losses of around two percent on Friday, led by a fall in global equities amid expectations of strong a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.  After a gap-down opening, markets continued to reel under pressure, as foreign fund outflows have dented investor sentiments. According to data available with the BSE, foreign institutional investors offloaded shares worth a net Rs 1,270.68 crore in the domestic market on Thursday. Traders remained cautious as India Ratings has cuts India's FY23 GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent from 7 per cent, joining other institutions who have cut their projections to below 7 per cent since the release of the April-June quarter GDP data. Despite private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth coming in better than its expectations in Q1, the agency expects the slowdown in the growth of government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) and worsening of net exports to weigh on the FY23 GDP growth. Some concern also came as Global Rating agency Moody's said India's rated infrastructure firms can largely withstand further depreciation in the value of rupee against US dollar due to financial hedges and other mitigants. Key indices extended their fall to close near intraday lows as International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the global economic outlook remains downbeat and some countries are expected to slip into recession in 2023, but it is too early to say if there will be a widespread global recession. The IMF in July revised down global growth to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. It will release a new outlook next month. Some pessimism also came after the World Bank said the world could be heading towards a global recession in 2023 as central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates to combat persistent inflation. Traders overlooked Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri's statement that the country is on the path to becoming a 10 trillion-dollar economy in 2030 and the third largest economy in the world by 2047. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1093.22 points or 1.82% to 58,840.79 and the CNX Nifty was down by 346.55 points or 1.94% to 17,530.85.


The US markets extended their previous session's losses and ended at their lowest closing levels in two months on Friday amid a steep drop by shares of FedEx (FDX). The delivery giant plunged by 21.4 percent to a two-year closing low. The sell-off by FedEx came after the company reported weaker than expected preliminary fiscal first quarter results and withdrew its full-year guidance. FedEx cited global volume softness and expectations for a continued volatile operating environment and warned it expects business conditions to further weaken in the second quarter. The warning from FedEx added to concerns about the outlook for the global economy amid monetary policy tightening by central banks around the world. Concerns about the outlook for interest rates also continued to weigh on the markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision next week. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points, although some see an outside chance for a 100 basis point rate hike. Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the University of Michigan showing a modest improvement in consumer sentiment and a decrease in inflation expectations. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index inched up to 59.5 in September from 58.2 in August. With the uptick, the consumer sentiment index reached its highest level since hitting 65.2 in April.


Crude oil futures pared most of their early gains and settled almost flat on Friday amid supply concerns and hopes of a robust demand during the later part of the year and in 2023. Initially, some support also came amid uncertainty about the revival of the Iranian nuclear deal and the likely impact on supply contributed as well to oil's uptick. Though, gains got trimmed on reports of the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Basra oil terminal, where a spillage had forced disruptions last night. Meanwhile, a report from Baker Hughes said the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by eight to 599 this week, rising for the first time in three weeks. It said the total active U.S. rig count, including those drilling for natural gas, climbed by 4 to 763. Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery settled almost flat $0.01 at $85.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery rose $0.51 or about 0.6 percent to settle at $91.35 (provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.     


Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Friday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Traders were worried as IMF spokesman Gerry Rice flagged concerns over further slowdown in the global economy and said that some countries are expected to slip into recession in 2023. Concerns over aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve also put downside pressure on the local unit. However, downfall remain capped with Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri's statement that the country is on the path to becoming a 10 trillion-dollar economy in 2030 and the third largest economy in the world by 2047. On the global front, dollar rallied again on Friday, as U.S. Treasury yields rose ahead of a potentially huge Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week. Finally, the rupee ended at 79.78 (Provisional), weaker by 7 paisa from its previous close of 79.71 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7787.42 crore against gross selling of Rs 8466.91 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1196.79 crore against gross selling of Rs 322.73 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.78 crore against gross selling of Rs 12.21 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Friday, falling to two-month lows as a warning of impending global slowdown from FedEx hastened investors' flight to safety at the conclusion of a tumultuous week. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday ahead of major central bank meetings this week. Benchmark indices ended lower for the third straight session on Friday led by weak global cues. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start tracking weak global cues. Traders will be concerned as data from Reserve Bank showed India Inc's investment in their overseas ventures dropped by 59 per cent on an annual basis to $1.03 billion in August this year. Some pessimism may come as the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $2.234 billion to stand at $550.871 billion for the week ended September 9. There will be some cautiousness with a report that India's current account deficit (CAD), a key indicator of balance of payment of a country, is likely to remain within 3 percent of the GDP in 2022-23 as against 1.2 percent during the last fiscal. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments in domestic markets. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold shares worth Rs 3,260.05 crore on September 16, as per provisional data available on the NSE. However, some respite may come later in the day as the finance ministry said gross direct tax collections grew 30 per cent to Rs 8.36 lakh crore till September 17 of current fiscal year on higher advance tax mop-up buoyed by the economic revival post pandemic. Some support may come as foreign investors pumped Rs 12,000 crore into the Indian equity market so far this month on hopes that global central banks, particularly the US Fed, may go slow on rate hikes as inflation starts to cool off. Traders may take note of report that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has unveiled the National Logistics Policy that seeks to address challenges facing the transport sector and bring down the logistics cost of businesses from 13-14 per cent to a single digit. He said the policy aims to expedite the last-mile delivery, helping businesses save time and money. Besides, Union minister Nitin Gadkari has said that the National Logistics Policy which focuses on re-engineering, digitisation and multimodal transport, would further boost ease of doing business for all industries and stakeholders. Some optimism may also come as the government in its monthly economic review for August said that a sharp rebound in consumer spending and rising employment will sustain economic growth in India in the months ahead. Oil & gas and aviation industry stocks will be in focus as the government cut the windfall profit tax on locally produced crude oil in line with a fall in international rates, and reduced the levy on export of diesel and jet fuel (ATF).


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  • UPL has entered into a joint venture with CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions to establish a hybrid solar-wind energy power plant in Gujarat, India. 
  • ICICI Bank has raised Rs 2100 crore through allotment of 21,000 senior unsecured redeemable long term bonds in the nature of debentures. 
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm -- Reliance Jio Infocomm has added 29,49,389 customers in July 2022.
  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone's wholly owned subsidiary -- HDC Bulk Terminal has signed the Concession Agreement with Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port, Kolkata for mechanization of Berth no. 2 at Haldia Dock Complex in Bengal.
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