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NSE Intra-day chart (17 October 2023)
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Market Commentary 18 October 2023
Markets likely to get cautious start on Wednesday


Indian equity benchmarks bounced back on Tuesday after three days of fall, led by buying in Utilities, Power and Energy stocks.  Indian bourses started the session on a strong note and remained in range bound move till the end, on the back of optimism over the ongoing Q2 earnings despite concerns about the Middle East and subdued start by the IT sector.  Sentiments got a boost with a survey by industry body FICCI stating that India's economic growth is expected at 6.3 per cent during 2023-24 on the back of good health of the financial sector and uptick in private investment even as downside risks remain. Traders took some support with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stating that the inaugural India-UK 2+2 foreign and defence dialogue on October 16 saw the two sides focusing on ways to boost cooperation in a range of key areas such as trade and investment, defence, critical technologies, civil aviation, health and energy. However, key gauges pared some gains in late afternoon deals, as some concern came with a private report stating that unemployment rates continue to remain high among people qualified with diploma or degree, though some progress has been made in the last five years. It said there's a notable gap between job opportunities and those seeking jobs, which might take time to narrow. Some pessimism also came with a private report that a sharp decline in tomato prices may have caused the headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation to plunge to 5.02% in September from 6.83% in August, but risks to food prices still persist. As per the report, an erratic monsoon and low reservoir levels are likely to have moderately adverse impact on yields of several crops, including paddy, pulses, oilseeds, and spices, which may keep inflationary pressures elevated in the near-term.  But, markets managed to end the session higher amid recovery in global markets. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 261.16 points or 0.39% to 66,428.09 and the CNX Nifty was up by 79.75 points or 0.40% to 19,811.50.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday as the Israel-Hamas war is continuing, President Jo Biden is planning to visit Israel on Wednesday. Biden's visits is considered as a show of support to Israel. U.S. marine rapid forces are approaching the region. Meanwhile, Gaza is suffering from a water and power crisis. Investors digested the data on U.S. retail sales and industrial production, and continued to track the developments on the geopolitical front. Data showing a bigger than expected increase in U.S. retail sales in the month of September raised concerns the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, and might even announce a hike in rates this year. Higher bond yields hurt as well. On the economic data front, data showed U.S. retail sales advanced 0.7 percent month-on-month in September, following an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in August. On yearly basis, retail sales increased 3.8 percent in September, the highest in seven months. In August, retail sales increased by an upwardly revised 2.9 percent. Industrial production in the U.S. went up 0.3 percent month-over-month in September, beating expectations of a flat reading. Manufacturing output, which accounts for 78 percent of total production, rose 0.4 percent, above forecasts of a 0.1 percent increase, after a 0.1 percent fall in the previous month.


Crude oil futures ended flat on Tuesday as investors continued to track the developments on the geopolitical front and weighing the outlook for global demand and supply. Meanwhile, market participants were awaiting U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Israel on Wednesday. Biden is visiting Israel to show solidarity and try to influence the conduct of its war against Hamas. Besides, investors were also awaiting weekly oil reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery settled flat at $86.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery added $0.25 or about 0.27 percent to settle at $89.90 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Tuesday amid a positive trend in domestic equities. Traders got support after industry body FICCI stated that India's economic growth is expected at 6.3 per cent during 2023-24 on the back of good health of the financial sector and uptick in private investment even as downside risks remain. The street paid no heed towards a private report stating that a sharp decline in tomato prices may have caused the headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation to plunge to 5.02% in September from 6.83% in August, but risks to food prices still persist. On the global front, sterling fell on Tuesday after data showed that growth in British workers' regular pay slowed from a previous record high and job vacancies also declined, with a softer labour market boosting the chance the Bank of England (BoE) will hold rates unchanged. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.25 (Provisional), higher by 2 paise from its previous close of 83.27 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7195.03 crore against gross selling of Rs 7587.88 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 645.00 crore with gross sales of Rs 133.47 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.43 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.50 crore.


The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday as encouraging retail sales and industrial production data along with better-than-expected earnings from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs revived Fed rate hike fears. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday following escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Besides, China's Q3 GDP grew better-than-expected at 4.9 per cent. Indian markets snapped their three-day losing run on Tuesday as firm global cues supported the sentiment. Today, domestic indices are likely to get cautious start in the backdrop of a fresh spike in US bond yields and Crude oil prices. Traders will be concerned after a huge explosion at a Gaza hospital derailed the diplomatic efforts led by the U.S. to mobilize support for Israel's right to defend itself. Israel blamed a failed missile from militant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad for the blast, which killed about 500 people. Some cautiousness will come as ratings agency ICRA said borrowing costs for state governments and union territories are expected to increase in the second half of Financial Year 2023-24 (FY24) on rising bond yields and widening of spreads up to 15 basis points. It added the rise in spreads for state government bonds over government of India bonds (G-sec) is likely to be pronounced in the fourth quarter of FY24. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. According to the provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FII) purchased shares worth net Rs 263.68 crore on October 17, 2023. Traders may take note of report that the Centre announced a cut on the windfall tax on petroleum crude, aviation turbine fuel, and diesel. As per a government notification, the special additional excise duty (SAED) on crude petroleum has now been reduced to Rs 9,050 per tonne from Rs 12,100 per tonne, effective October 18. The Centre had raised the windfall tax on petroleum crude to Rs 12,100 per tonne from Rs 10,000 per tonne on September 30. Infrastructure related stocks will be in focus as CRISIL said India's investments in infrastructure will rise to Rs 143 trillion between financial years 2024 and 2030. The rating agency said it will be more than twice the Rs 67 trillion spent in the past seven financial years. Meanwhile, Bajaj Auto, Bandhan Bank, IndusInd Bank, LTIMindtree and Wipro are few of the prominent companies scheduled to announce September quarter earnings today.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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  • Bajaj Finance has entered into a binding term sheet with Pennant Technologies, 2023, for acquisition up to 26% equity stake in Pennant. 
  • Titan Company has received approval for raising of funds through issuance of rated, listed, redeemable, unsecured NCDs on private placement basis, for an amount up to Rs 2,500 crore.  
  • Grasim Industries has received an approval for raising of funds not exceeding Rs 4,000 crore by way of a rights issue to the eligible equity shareholders as on the record date. 
  • Hero MotoCorp has commenced deliveries of Harley-Davidson X440 across the country from October 15, 2023.
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