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NSE Intra-day chart (17 January 2023)
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Market Commentary 18 January 2023
Markets likely to get flat-to-positive start on Wednesday


Indian equity benchmarks ended higher by around a percent on Tuesday led by heavy buying in index majors Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC. After making a cautious start, key gauges gained traction as traders took encouragement with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) report stating that states' gross fiscal deficit (GFD) is budgeted to decline from 4.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Covid-hit 2020-21 to 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2022-23 showing improvement in their fiscal health. It stated the fiscal health of the states has improved from a sharp pandemic-induced deterioration in 2020-21 on the back of a broad-based economic recovery and resulting high revenue collections. Sentiments remained up-beat with a private report that nearly six in 10 corporate heads in India (57 per cent) are optimistic about the country's growth prospects in 2023 in the face of a global slowdown, as well as inflationary and geopolitical concerns. Some support also came with report that the ongoing negotiations of India for the proposed comprehensive free trade agreements with the UK and European Union (EU) are on track and the next round of talks with both the regions will happen soon. However, markets trimmed some gains in afternoon deals, as some concern came with the provisional data available on the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 750.59 crore, continuing selling for the 17th consecutive session on January16, 2023. But, key indices regained traction to end near day's high points, taking support from Mathias Cormann's, the secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD) statement that India has been growing very strongly - and as a key player in G20, India holds opportunity to help shape the global agenda. Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum in its Chief Economists Outlook survey said that a global recession is likely in 2023, but pressures on food, energy and inflation may be peaking. It added at the same time, some economies in the South Asia region, including Bangladesh and India, may bene?t from global trends such as a diversi?cation of manufacturing supply chains away from China. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 562.75 points or 0.94% to 60,655.72 and the CNX Nifty was up by 158.45 points or 0.89% to 18,053.30.


The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday with Dow Jones settling over one percent cut. A steep drop by Goldman Sachs (GS) weighed on the Dow, with the financial giant plunging by 6.4 percent on the day. The nosedive by shares of Goldman Sachs came after the company reported fourth quarter earnings that missed Street estimates. Fellow Dow Component Travelers (TRV) also plunged by 4.6 percent after warning of weaker than expected fourth quarter earnings due to the significant winter storm that impacted much of the U.S and Canada in late December. The choppy trading on markets came as traders expressed some uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets following recent strength. On the sectoral front, most of the major sectors showed only modest moves on the day, contributing to the lackluster performance by the broader markets. Gold stocks showed a substantial move to the downside, however, dragging the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down by 3.5 percent. The index ended last Friday's trading at a seven-month closing high.  Retail and steel stocks also saw notable weakness on the day, while oil service stocks moved higher along with the price of crude oil. On the economic data front, the New York Federal Reserve released a report showing a significant contraction in regional manufacturing activity in the month of January. The New York Fed said its general business conditions plunged to a negative 32.9 in January from a negative 11.2 in December, with a negative reading indicating a contraction. Street had expected the index to climb to a negative 4.5.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday on account of expectations of a rise in demand for fuel after data showed the Chinese economy saw better than expected growth last year. Official data showed that China's GDP grew an annual 2.9% in the fourth quarter, faster than the 1.8% increase street had expected. Meanwhile, oil was bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell against most major currencies due to expectations of a possible Bank of Japan policy shift that could be a precursor to adopting a tighter monetary policy. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery rose $0.32 or 0.4 percent at $80.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery surged $1.46 or 1.7 percent at $85.92 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Rupee ended weaker against dollar on Tuesday amid firm crude oil prices. Sentiments got hit despite Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its report has said states' gross fiscal deficit (GFD) is budgeted to decline from 4.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Covid-hit 2020-21 to 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2022-23 showing improvement in their fiscal health. It stated the fiscal health of the states has improved from a sharp pandemic-induced deterioration in 2020-21 on the back of a broad-based economic recovery and resulting high revenue collections. On the global front, British pound edged higher on Tuesday after data showed a tight labour market and accelerating pay growth, adding to the Bank of England's inflation worries as it tries to bring prices down from multi-decade highs. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.77 (Provisional), weaker by 19 paise from its previous close of 81.58 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8515.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 6945.09 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 607.17 crore against gross selling of Rs 198.03 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.04 crore against gross selling of Rs 12.90 crore.


The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday as the corporate earnings season took center stage. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday as investors await the outcome of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting. Indian markets shrugged off lackluster global cues and ended higher on Tuesday, buoyed by strong buying interest in index heavyweights Reliance Industries and the HDFC twins. Today, the benchmark indices are likely to get flat-to-positive start tracking gains in Asian counterparts. Foreign fund inflows likely to support domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FII) turned net buyers for the first time in last 18 straight sessions, to the tune of Rs 211.06 crore worth shares on January 17, as per provisional data available on the NSE. Traders may take note of Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that it is too premature to think that India will replace China when it comes to influencing global economic growth. However, the situation may change going forward as India is already the world's fifth largest economy, it is growing and has the potential to keep expanding. However, there may be some cautiousness as State Bank of India in a report stated that the upcoming Indian budget for 2023-24 will be a challenging one for the government to follow the roadmap for fiscal consolidation amidst a global environment of declining inflation. It said the fiscal deficit of the Indian government for FY23 will be about Rs.17.5 lakh crore. There will be some buzz in mines and mineral industry stocks as the mines ministry said the country's mineral production rose by 9.7 per cent in November as compared to the year-ago period. Banking stocks will be in focus ahead of the finance ministry meeting, to be held on January 19, with heads of public sector banks and financial institutions to review the progress of various social sector schemes, including Jan Dhan, Mudra, KCC, and PM SVANidhi. There will be some reaction in infrastructure industry stocks as rating agency ICRA said that toll road projects in the country are likely to see moderate to high single-digit growth in FY24 with moderation in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation. India's toll road projects saw a 17-20 per cent growth in FY23. Sugar industry stocks will be in limelight as industry body ISMA said sugar mills have entered into contracts to export 55 lakh tonne of sweetener so far in current marketing year ending September and out of that, 18 lakh tonne have been shipped already. There will be lots of earnings reaction to keep the markets buzzing.


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  • SBI has inked a MoU with Warehousing Development Regulatory Authority to help farmers in getting low interest rate loans. 
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