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NSE Intra-day chart (16 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 17 November 2023
Markets likely to get cautious start on Friday

Indian equity benchmarks ended higher for the second consecutive session on Thursday, led by gains in IT, TECK and Consumer Durables stocks. After the cautious start, markets maintained a positive tone for most part of the day as traders took encouragement with CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) Chairman Nitin Gupta's statement that the government will exceed the Rs 18.23 lakh crore direct tax collection target set for the current fiscal. Sentiments remained positive with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India is expected to overtake Japan and Germany to emerge as the third largest economy in the world by 2027. She said India's economic growth is estimated to be just under 7 per cent during the year, the highest among major economies, despite global headwinds. She also said the Indian economy is therefore on the right track and is heading towards a bright future. Markets extended gains in late afternoon deals amid reports that the government is considering several measures such as a flexible framework for sale of products manufactured in special economic zones (SEZs) in the domestic market, easy de-notification norms, and streamlining approval processes for units. Some support came as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) snapped a 15-session selling streak during the previous session, buying Indian shares worth Rs 550 crore on a net basis. However, profit taking in the final minutes of trade trimmed some gains. Traders took a note of the commerce ministry's data showing that India's imports from Russia rose 64 per cent to $36.27 billion during the April-October period of FY24 on higher shipments of crude oil and fertiliser. With this, Russia has become India's second-largest import source during the first seven months of this fiscal. The imports were $22.13 billion during April-October 2022. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 306.55 points or 0.47% to 65,982.48 and the CNX Nifty was up by 89.75 points or 0.46% to 19,765.20.

The US markets ended mostly higher on Thursday despite a report released by the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits climbed by much more than expected in the week ended November 11th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level of 218,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to 220,000 from the 217,000 originally reported for the previous week. With the bigger than expected, jobless claims reached their highest level since hitting 232,000 in the week ended August 19th. The report said the less volatile four-week moving average also climbed to 220,250, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's revised average of 212,500. Meanwhile, with mortgage rates approaching 8 percent earlier this month, the National Association of Home Builders released a report unexpectedly showing a continued deterioration in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of November. The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index slumped to 34 in November from 40 in October, while street had expected the index to come in unchanged. The housing market index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, falling to its lowest level since hitting 31 in December 2022. On the sectoral front, Energy stocks showed a substantial move to the downside on the day, with a steep drop by the price of crude oil weighing the sector. With crude for December delivery plummeting $3.76 to $72.90 a barrel, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index dove by 3.6 percent and the NYSE Arca Oil Index tumbled by 2.4 percent.

Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Thursday after the latest batch of data from the U.S., Europe and Asia raised worries about an economic slowdown. Data showing U.S. jobless claims rose to a three-month high last week, a report saying U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in October, and a report from the Federal Reserve showing industrial production fell by more than expected in October, have raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand. Meanwhile, data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed crude refining throughput in the country dropped 2.8% in October, indicating slowing demand. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $3.76 or 4.9 percent to settle at $72.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $3.76 or 4.6 percent to settle at $77.42 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Rupee settled lower against dollar on Thursday due to firm greenback in the overseas markets. Traders were worried as the commerce ministry said India's merchandise trade deficit rose to a record high in October, propelled by a 95 percent increase in gold imports. Investors overlooked reports that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) snapped a 15-session selling streak during the previous session, buying Indian shares worth Rs 550 crore on a net basis. On the global front, the dollar held its ground on Thursday after a volatile two days that saw sharp declines followed by a rebound as traders took incoming economic data as signalling the Federal Reserve will wait longer before cutting interest rates. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.23 (Provisional), weaker by 14 paise from its previous close of 83.09 on Wednesday.

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 16437.27 crore against gross selling of Rs 14913.94 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1402.86 crore with gross sales of Rs 331.35 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.19 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.01 crore.

The US markets ended mostly higher on Thursday as investors digested a string of weak economic data and disappointing forecasts from Cisco and Walmart. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday as a mid-week rally sparked by hopes of cooling US inflation lost steam. Indian market off their day's high due to fag-end selling in banking stocks, but managed to end session in green terrain for a second consecutive session on Thursday. Today, markets are likely to make cautious start as global markets take a break from the recent two-day rally. However, overnight fall in crude oil prices may support domestic indices. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors net bought shares worth Rs 957.25 crore on November 16. Traders may be taking encouragement as S&P Global Ratings said in a report that India's GDP growth prospects should remain strong over the medium term, with GDP expanding 6-7.1 percent annually in fiscal years 2024-2026. Besides, the RBI said in its latest monthly bulletin that there were miles to go to go on the inflation front and that India is not out of the woods yet. Meanwhile, chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch said the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) will ease the delisting regulations at its upcoming board meeting. The move is expected to help promoters take their company private if they wish to do so. Telecom stocks will be in focus reacting to data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) showing that telecom operator Reliance Jio continued to strengthen its position in the Indian telecom market by gaining 3.24 million new users in August. Vodafone Idea (Vi) lost 49,782 users in the latest month, Bharti Airtel saw its subscriber count increase by 1.21 million users. Stocks of banking and non-banking lenders will be in limelight as the RBI has increased the risk weights for consumer credit including credit card and personal loan exposure of banks to curtail high growth in consumer credit. Oil-linked stocks such as oil marketing companies, paints, tyres, oil explorers, etc may see some action on the bourses after Brent crude tumbled 5 per cent Thursday to hover around $77 per barrel-mark.

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  • ONGC has planned to invest about Rs 1 lakh crore in setting up two petrochemical plants to convert crude oil directly into high-value chemical products as it prepares for energy transition.
  • Cyient has signed a LoI with Thales to working together to tackle climate change across their business value chains.
  • Hero MotoCorp has recorded its highest-ever festive sales, clocking more than 14 lakh units in retail sales during 32-day festive period - between first day of Navratras and Bhai Dooj this year.   
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has rolled out Nerivio in India, a state-of-the-art USFDA approved wearable therapy device for drug-free management of migraine.

News Analysis