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NSE Intra-day chart (15 December 2022)
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Market Commentary 16 December 2022
Benchmarks likely to get negative start on Friday

 

Indian equity benchmarks traded under heavy selling pressure throughout the day and settled with losses of around one and half percent on Thursday amid weak global cues. Traders got anxious as India Ratings said falling exports and high crude prices are set to push up current account deficit (CAD) in the second quarter to a 37-quarter high of 4.4 per cent of GDP at $36 billion as against $9.7 billion or 1.3 per cent in the year-ago period. Some cautiousness also came as former governor of the Reserve Bank of India Raghuram Rajan said the next year will be difficult for the Indian economy as also for the rest of the world and the country failed to generate reforms needed for growth. He said policies should be formulated keeping in mind the lower middle class which suffered the most due to the coronavirus pandemic. Key gauges extended fall in late afternoon deals, as some pessimism came with finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India is seeing a fall in demand for jobs under a rural employment guarantee programme. Investors failed to draw any solace with Union minister Piyush Goyal's statement that huge opportunities are there in the textiles segment and the country would achieve $100 billion export target from the sector by 2030. He said that free trade agreements will further help boost textile exports. Meanwhile, the Parliament has passed the Energy Conservation (Amendment) Bill, 2022 that aims to mandate the use of green energy and enables the government to set up a carbon trading scheme. The Bill also allows the government to specify the minimum amount of non-fossil sources to be used by designated energy consumers. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 878.88 points or 1.40% to 61,799.03 and the CNX Nifty was down by 245.40 points or 1.32% to 18,414.90.

 

The US markets ended deeply red on Thursday on concerns about the outlook for interest rates. A batch of disappointing U.S. economic data also added to concerns the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes will push the economy into a recession. The Commerce Department released a report showing retail sales pulled back by more than expected in the month of November. The Commerce Department said retail sales slid by 0.6 percent in November after surging by 1.3 percent in October. Street had expected retail sales to edge down by 0.1 percent. Excluding a steep drop in sale by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales slipped by 0.2 percent in November after jumping by 1.2 percent in October. Ex-auto sales were expected to inch up by 0.2 percent. A separate report released by the Federal Reserve unexpectedly showed a modest decrease in U.S. industrial production in the month of November. The Fed said industrial production slipped by 0.2 percent in November after edging down by 0.1 percent in October. Street had expected industrial production to inch up by 0.1 percent. The unexpected dip in industrial production came as manufacturing output fell by 0.6 percent and mining output slid by 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, a 3.6 percent spike in utilities output helped limit the downside amid unseasonably cold weather across much of the country. On the sectoral front, computer hardware stocks showed a substantial move to the downside on the day, dragging the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index down by 5.4 percent to its lowest closing level in over a month. Western Digital (WDC) helped lead the sector lower, plunging by 10.1 percent after Goldman Sachs downgraded its rating on the data storage company stock to Sell from Neutral.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday as concerns about supply eased a bit following a partial restart of the Keystone Pipeline. The dollar's rise on hawkish comments by the Federal Reserve weighed as well on oil prices. The economic projections provided along with the announcement suggest the Fed expects rates to ultimately be raised higher than forecast back in September. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank also raised interest rates, and signaled further tightening to rein in inflation. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery fell $1.17 or 1.5 percent at $76.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for February delivery dropped $1.17 or 1.5 percent to settle at $81.21 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee tumbled against dollar on Thursday, following massive sell-off in domestic markets. Sentiments got hit as India Ratings said falling exports and high crude prices are set to push up current account deficit (CAD) in the second quarter to a 37-quarter high of 4.4 per cent of GDP at $36 billion as against $9.7 billion or 1.3 per cent in the year-ago period. Besides, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan said the next year will be difficult for the Indian economy as also for the rest of the world and the country failed to generate reforms needed for growth. He said policies should be formulated keeping in mind the lower middle class which suffered the most due to the coronavirus pandemic. On the global front, sterling weakened against a broadly firm dollar on Thursday ahead of a Bank of England meeting that's expected to conclude with a half-percentage-point hike in interest rates to tame inflation. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.76 (Provisional), weaker by 27 paise from its previous close of 82.49 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7274.80 crore against gross selling of Rs 6943.48 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 182.76 crore against gross selling of Rs 394.44 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.69 crore against gross selling of Rs 10.06 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Thursday as central banks across Europe and the US Fed risk the chance of a recession to bring inflation under control by further interest rates. Asian markets are trading in red on Friday following the broadly negative cues from global markets overnight. Indian markets snapped two-day winning streak and ended lower with cut of over 1.40% each on Thursday amid a global sell-off in emerging market assets as investors reacted to the hawkish commentary by the US Federal Reserve. Today, markets are likely to get negative start amid weak global cues and rising interest rates globally. Traders will be concerned with a private report that India's current account deficit likely rose to its highest in nearly a decade in the July-September quarter as elevated commodity prices and a weak rupee stretched the trade gap even further. There will be some cautiousness as the government data showed that India's exports recorded a flat growth of 0.59 per cent to $31.99 billion in November, even as trade deficit widened to $23.89 billion during the month. Exports stood at $31.8 billion in November last year. Imports rose by 5.37 per cent to $55.88 billion in November as compared to $53.03 billion in the corresponding month a year ago. However, some support may come as the government said it will take steps to support farmers for increasing pulses production and also streamline imports as part of its objective to make available the products at affordable rates. Traders may take note of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal's statement that the government is considering to bring quality control order for silk with an aim to contain import of the sub-standard product and boost domestic industry. Telecom industry stocks will be in focus as a private report stated that the Indian telecom industry is expected to grow by USD 12.5 billion every three years with the advent of 5G which has the potential to boost innovation across the globe. According to the report, with ultra-low latency and high data rates, 5G is expected to create avenues of collaboration and alliances as well as drive India to reimagine a whole new way of engaging in the new, faster, agile digital world. There will be some buzz in the sugar industry stocks as the government may consider increasing sugar export quota for the current 2022-23 marketing year after assessing the domestic production in January. In November, the government allowed export of 60 lakh tonnes of sugar for the 2022-23 marketing year (October-September).

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,414.90

18,317.44

18,582.64

BSE Sensex

61,799.03

61,468.15

62,377.35

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

343.61

110.90

109.91

112.66

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation

114.26

147.25

146.31

148.51

NTPC

106.44

172.30

171.31

173.66

State Bank of India

106.22

614.70

609.49

624.74

HDFC Bank

90.91

1,630.00

1,614.90

1,657.25

 

  • HDFC Bank has partnered with integrated full-stack agriculture technology solutions provider Lawrencedale Agro Processing India to support the farming community in three southern states. 
  • NTPC is planning to raise Rs 500 crore through the issuance of NCDs on a private placement at a coupon of 7.44% per annum with a door to door maturity of 10 years 3 months 30 days on April 15, 2033. 
  • State Bank of India has received an approval for raising capital by way of issuance of Basel III compliant debt instrument in INR and / or any other convertible currency, up to FY24 by fresh AT1 Capital up to an amount of Rs 10,000 crore, subject to Govt. of India concurrence.
  • Axis Bank has partnered with Tata AIG, to offer Group Medicare products for its new customers from the LGBTQIA+ Community.
News Analysis