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NSE Intra-day chart (13 October 2023)
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Market Commentary 16 October 2023
Markets likely to get cautious start on Monday


Indian equity benchmarks ended on a weak note on Friday as Banks, information technology (IT) and TECK stocks fell sharply during the session. Markets made a gap down opening and traded lower for the most part of the session, as negative global cues and concerns over the quarterly financial performance of IT companies hit investor sentiments. Some concern also came as data available with NSE showed foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Thursday as they sold shares worth Rs 1,862.57 crore. Sentiments remained weak after the Labor Department released a separate report showing consumer price growth in the U.S. slightly exceeded estimates in the month of September. The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.4 percent in September. Street had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3 percent. However, key gauges staged some recovery in the second half of the session, on the back of positive macro-economic data. India's Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation (retail inflation) eased to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent year-on-year in September from 6.83 per cent in August, with moderation in vegetables and fuel prices. Besides, with good performance by the manufacturing, mining and power sectors, India's industrial production growth rose to a 14-month high of 10.3 per cent in August. Some support also came as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest survey report has showed that exports of software services by Indian companies (excluding their sales through overseas commercial presence) increased by 18.4 per cent during 2022-23 to $185.5 billion. It also noted that computer services accounted for over two-thirds of total software services exports during the year; BPO services remained the main component of ITES exports. However, markets failed to erase all the losses and ended marginally in red. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 125.65 points or 0.19% to 66,282.74 and the CNX Nifty was down by 42.95 points or 0.22% to 19,751.05.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Friday following a report from the University of Michigan showing a slump in consumer sentiment and a surge in inflation expectations. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index tumbled to 63.0 in October from 68.1 in September, while street had expected the index to edge down to 67.4. The report also showed a sharp increase in year-ahead inflation expectations, which jumped to 3.8 percent in October from 3.2 percent in September, reaching the highest level since May. Long-run inflation expectations also rose to 3.0 percent in October from 2.8 percent in September but remained within the narrow 2.9-3.1 percent range seen for 25 of the last 27 months. However, downside remained capped as traders reacted positively to earnings news from financial giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which moved to the upside after reporting better than expected third quarter revenue. On the sectoral front, semiconductor stocks led the technology sector lower on the day, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging by 2.7 percent. Significant weakness was also visible among networking stocks, as reflected by the 1.8 percent loss posted by the NYSE Arca Networking Index. Transportation, computer hardware and software stocks also saw notable weakness, while gold stocks moved sharply higher along with the price of the precious metal.


Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Friday on rising concerns about the potential impact of the ongoing Israel - Hamas war on global crude supplies. Israel's military called for all civilians of Gaza City, more than 1 million people, to relocate south within 24 hours. The Israeli military said it would operate significantly in Gaza City in the coming days and civilians would only be able to return when another announcement was made. Further, the United States' decision to tighten sanctions against Russian crude exports has also raised supply concerns. The U.S. Treasury Department said that it has imposed its first set of sanctions on two companies that shipped Russian oil in violation of a multinational price cap of $60 a barrel. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery rose $4.78 or about 5.8 percent to settle at $87.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery surged $4.89 or about 5.7 percent to settle at $90.89 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Rupee settled lower against dollar on Friday on surging crude oil prices overseas and a downward trend in the domestic equities. Investors ignored data showing that India's Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation (retail inflation) eased to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent year-on-year in September from 6.83 per cent in August, with moderation in vegetables and fuel prices. Besides, India's industrial production growth rose to a 14-month high of 10.3 per cent in August with good performance by the manufacturing, mining and power sectors. Moreover, India's merchandise trade deficit fell to a five-month low of $19.37 billion in September. While goods exports last month stood at $34.47 billion, imports were at $53.84 billion. On the global front, U.S. dollar held firm on Friday after its biggest daily increase since March the day before, as hot U.S. consumer prices data revived prospects that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates further to get inflation back towards its 2% target. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.28 (Provisional), weaker by 4 paise from its previous close of 83.24 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8622.89 crore against gross selling of Rs 10369.90 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2863.98 crore with gross sales of Rs 1995.28 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5.26 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.55 crore.


The US markets ended mostly in red on Friday as Investors monitored news from the Middle East. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Monday as investors look ahead China's third-quarter gross domestic product numbers later in the week. Indian markets ended lower on Friday as weak China data revived fears of a global slowdown. Today, start of new week is likely to be cautious amid spike in Crude Oil prices and Israel-Palestine war. Israeli troops prepare for a ground assault on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. Investors will be eyeing wholesale price inflation data for September, and Q2-FY24 earnings of India Inc for more directional cues. Traders will be concerned as India's merchandise exports saw a fall of 2.6 percent year on year, contracting to $34.47 billion in September. The fall was also significantly reflected in imports, which contracted by 15 percent to $53.84 billion in September 2023 against September 2022. Traders may take note of chief economic advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran's statement that private investment is happening in India, and inflation is not a concern, but crude oil prices and tightening global monetary conditions pose a risk. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. According to the provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FII) purchased shares worth net Rs 317.01 crore on October 13, 2023. Some support may come as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the overall macroeconomic environment in India is pretty sound, it is fiscally disciplined and the central bank moved fast to bring inflation under control. Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, IMF said They have been fiscally disciplined. They expect the fiscal at 5.9 per cent this year. The central bank has moved fast to bring inflation under control. The most recent number was 5 per cent (for September). So, inflation is coming down. So, overall, the macroeconomic environment is pretty sound in India. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is likely to undertake a new round of market consultations before allowing the National Stock Exchange (NSE) to extend its trading hours. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus with report that the government has given a final call to all legal entities engaged in sugar trade to declare their stocks on a food ministry website by October 17, and warned that strict action will be taken against those for violation.


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  • Tata Motors' subsidiary-- Jaguar Land Rover has reported sales of 2,356 units in the H1FY24 as compared to around 1,194 units in the same period of the last financial year, up by 97.32%. 
  • USFDA has completed a product specific Pre-Approval Inspection at Dr. Reddy's Laboratories' biologics manufacturing facility in Bachupally, Hyderabad.
  • Bajaj Finserv's subsidiary -- Bajaj Markets has partnered with IIFL Finance to offer Gold Loan. 
  • Tech Mahindra is all set to divest 33% shareholding in Tech Mahindra South Africa (Pty) to comply with the local Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment guidelines in South Africa.
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