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NSE Intra-day chart (15 September 2022)
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Market Commentary 16 September 2022
Benchmarks likely to get negative start on weak global cues


Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for a second straight day on Thursday with Sensex closed below 60,000 mark and Nifty gave up on the 18,000 mark. Markets have made positive start on firm global cues. Traders took some encouragement with revenue secretary Tarun Bajaj's statement that he expects GST collection to top the Rs 1.5-lakh-crore-mark from October.  Bajaj said for the last couple of months, we've been trying very hard to reach that milestone of Rs 1.5 trillion (lakh crore). But we have been failing a bit sometimes by Rs 2,000 crore and sometimes by even Rs 6,000 crore. Some support also came in as India and France agreed to set up an Indo-Pacific trilateral framework to roll out development projects, decided to expand strategic cooperation and vowed to work closely to deal with pressing global challenges such as food crisis triggered by the Ukraine war. However, benchmark indices gave up early gain and slipped into the red in morning deals, as traders turned cautious after Fitch Ratings has cut its growth forecast for India to 7 percent for the current financial year (FY23) from the previous estimate of 7.8 percent. It also slashed gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the next fiscal year (FY24) to 6.7 percent from the earlier estimate of 7.4 percent. Some concern also came as Apex body for exporters Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) stating that with global trade facing headwinds due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, merchandise exports from India are expected to grow at a slower pace during the current fiscal. It may rise about 11 per cent to over $470 billion. Exports grew 45 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to $422 billion in 2021-22. Besides, foreign institutional investors offloaded Rs 1,397.51 crore from the domestic equities on Wednesday. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 412.96 points or 0.68% to 59,934.01 and the CNX Nifty was down by 126.35 points or 0.70% to 17,877.40.


The US markets ended lower on Thursday, with Nasdaq settling around one and half percent, as investors mulled over several economic reports that showed a muddy picture of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve released a report unexpectedly showing a modest decrease in US industrial production in the month of August. The report said industrial production edged down by 0.2 percent in August after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.5 percent in July. Street had expected industrial production to inch up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.6 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department showing an unexpected increase in retail sales in the month of August, although the sales growth followed a revised decrease in July. The report showed retail sales rose by 0.3 percent in August following a revised 0.4 percent decrease in July. Street had expected retail sales to come in unchanged, matching the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month. Excluding a rebound in auto sales, retail sales fell by 0.3 percent in August following a revised unchanged reading in July. Ex-auto sales were expected to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. A separate report released by the Labor Department unexpectedly showed another modest decrease in first-time claims for US unemployment benefits in the week ended September 10th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims slipped to 213,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level of 218,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to 226,000 from the 222,000 originally reported for the previous week. On the sectoral front, Gold stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the session, resulting in a 3.1 percent nosedive by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. A sharp pullback by the price of crude oil also weighed on energy stocks, dragging the NYSE Arca Oil Index and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index down by 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.


Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Thursday owing to concerns about outlook for energy demand. The International Monetary Fund said downside risks continue to dominate the global economic outlook. Although some countries are expected to slip into recession next year, the IMF is not certain if their will be a widespread global recession. Further, oil prices also fell on reports about a tentative deal between rail road union and its workers to avert a potentially disastrous rail strike in the US. Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery fell $3.38 or about 3.8 percent to settle at $85.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery dropped $3.38 or about 3.59 percent to settle at $90.72 (provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.     


Continuing previous session downfall; Indian rupee ended considerably lower against dollar on Thursday on emergence of demand for the greenback from importers. Sentiments were dented as Fitch Ratings has cut its growth forecast for India to 7 percent for the current financial year (FY23) from the previous estimate of 7.8 percent. It also slashed gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the next fiscal year (FY24) to 6.7 percent from the earlier estimate of 7.4 percent. Traders were also worried as India's merchandise trade deficit in August widened to $27.98 billion from $11.71 billion a year earlier. Besides, losses in local equity market also hit the rupee sentiment. On the global front, Sterling was little changed against greenback as investors fret about the economic outlook and continue to favour the U.S. currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 79.79 (Provisional), weaker by 27 paisa from its previous close of 79.52 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7933.47 crore against gross selling of Rs 9308.13 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 520.63 crore against gross selling of Rs 278.71 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5.85 crore against gross selling of Rs 18.91 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Thursday as investors digested economic data that provided the Federal Reserve little reason to ease its aggressive interest rate hiking cycle. Asian markets are trading in red on Friday as investors digest US economic data and look ahead to the release of China's industrial production and retail sales figures for August. Indian markets settled in negative territory for the second successive day on Thursday due to weak Asian cues. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start tracking weakness in global peers. Traders will be concerned as India Ratings cut the forecast to 6.9 per cent from 7 per cent, joining other institutions who have cut their projections to below 7 per cent since the release of the April-June quarter GDP data. The agency expects the slowdown in the growth of government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) and worsening of net exports to weigh on the FY23 GDP growth. Some pessimism may come as the World Bank said the world may be edging toward a global recession as central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates to combat persistent inflation. There will be some cautiousness as Global Rating agency Moody's said India's rated infrastructure firms can largely withstand further depreciation in the value of rupee against US dollar due to financial hedges and other mitigants. Besides, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold shares worth Rs 1,270.68 crore on September 15, as per provisional data available on the NSE. However, some respite may come later in the day as Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said that India is on the path to becoming a 10 trillion-dollar economy in 2030 and the third largest economy in the world by 2047. The Minister also highlighted India's progress in ensuring energy security for its citizens and outlined the Government's plans to make the country's energy mix more sustainable and environmentally friendly. Aviation industry stocks will be in focus as rating agency Icra said domestic air passenger traffic rose 5 per cent to 1.02 crore in August and a fast-paced recovery in the traffic is expected this fiscal on the back of normalcy in flight operations and widening vaccination coverage. There will be some reaction in telecom stocks as Union Minister for Communications, Electronics and Information Technology, Ashwini Vaishnaw said telecom Sector in the country will witness more reforms in coming years and the industry too will have to do its bit and reciprocate by improving the quality of service significantly.


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Hindalco Industries






  • NTPC signed a MoU with National Sports Development Funds and Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports (MYAS) for the development of archery in India. 
  • L&T's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured a repeat order for its Water & Effluent Treatment Business from the Department of Water Resources, Government of Odisha.
  •  Tata Motors and Tata Power have entered into a Power Purchase agreement to develop a 4 MWp on-site solar project at Tata Motors' Pune commercial vehicle manufacturing facility. 
  • Tata Steel has received approval to raise Rs 2000 crore through Fixed rate, Unsecured, Redeemable, Rated, Listed, NCDs to be issued in two different series on private placement to all eligible investors.
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