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NSE Intra-day chart (13 January 2023)
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Market Commentary 16 January 2023
Markets likely to get flat-to-positive start on Monday


Indian equity benchmarks bounced back on Friday after a three-day decline following buying in index major Tata Steel, Indusind Bank and Infosys amid a firm trend in global equities. Markets made a cautious start and traded under pressure in the first half of the trading session as traders were concerned with a private report stating that the Centre as well as state governments are likely to budget for higher market borrowings next fiscal even though the Union Budget may peg a lower-than-expected fiscal deficit at 5.8 per cent of GDP. Some cautiousness also came as provisional data available on the NSE showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) have net sold shares worth Rs 1,662.63 crore on January 12, 2023. However, domestic indices erased all of their losses and turned positive in afternoon deals as traders were getting encouragement with data showing that India's retail inflation or CPI fell to a one-year low of 5.72% in December, owing to a sharp deflation (-15.08%) in vegetables and easing price pressures in the broader food and beverages category. Some optimism also came with data showing that India's industrial growth, as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), accelerated to 7.1 percent in November 2022. IIP growth returned to positive territory in November after it had contracted by 4 percent in October - the industry's worst performance in 26 months. Traders also took a note of Union Minister for Commerce and Industry, Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Textiles, Piyush Goyal's statement that the India US Trade Policy Forum (TPF) has resulted into a smoother, friendly and trusted business environment for businesses from both sides to expand their trade and investment. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 303.15 points or 0.51% to 60,261.18 and the CNX Nifty was up by 98.40 points or 0.55% to 17,956.60.


The U.S. markets ended higher on Friday as upbeat consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data helped offset the early negative sentiment. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. has improved much more than expected in the month of January, according to preliminary data released by the University of Michigan. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index jumped to 64.6 in January from 59.7 in December. Street had expected the index to inch up to 60.5. With the much bigger than expected increase, the consumer sentiment index reached its highest level since hitting 65.2 in April 2022. The jump by the headline index partly reflected a significant improvement in consumers' assessment of current conditions, with the current economic conditions index surging to 68.6 in January from 59.4 in December. The index of consumer expectations showed a more modest increase, rising to 62.0 in January from 59.9 in December, as the short-run economic outlook fell modestly but the long-run outlook saw a notable improvement. On the sectoral front, gold stocks moved significantly higher over the course of the session, driving the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up by 1.3 percent to its best closing level in seven months. The strength among gold stocks came amid a sharp increase by the price of the precious metal, with gold for February delivery jumping $22.90 to $1,921.70 an ounce. Considerable strength also emerged among retail stocks, as reflected by the 1.2 percent gain posted by the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index. Oil service, tobacco and brokerage stocks also saw some strength on the day, although most of the major sectors showed only modest moves.


Crude oil futures settled higher on Friday on optimism energy demand from China will see a significant increase in the near to medium term. Hopes of less aggressive rate hikes in the United States after data showed consumer price inflation slowed in the month of December also contributed to the advance. Besides, China reported better-than-expected trade figures, and the U.K. economy unexpectedly grew in November. The German economy avoided contracting in the final quarter of the year, boosting the global demand outlook. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery rose $1.47 or 1.9 percent at $79.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery surged $1.30 or 1.54 percent at $85.33 a barrel (provisional) on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


After four successive gaining session, Rupee settled lower against dollar on Friday tracking a rebound in crude oil prices. Sentiments were downbeat even after data showed that India's industrial growth, as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), accelerated to 7.1 percent in November 2022. IIP growth returned to positive territory in November after it had contracted by 4 percent in October - the industry's worst performance in 26 months. Besides, India's retail inflation or consumer price index (CPI) declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022. The CPI was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021. On the global front, yen surged further on speculation that Japan could revise its ultra-loose monetary policy, while the dollar hovered near its lowest level since June against major currencies. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.34 (Provisional), weaker by 4 paise from its previous close of 81.30 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8716.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 10063.53 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 240.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 408.14 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6.21 crore against gross selling of Rs 11.89 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Friday with shares of JPMorgan Chase and other banks rising following their quarterly results, which kicked off the earnings season. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday as investors waited nervously to see if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will defend its super-sized stimulus policy at a pivotal meeting this week. Indian markets snapped a three-day losing streak to settle higher by over half a per cent on Friday following buying in IT, financials, and metal shares on easing inflation worries. Today, the start of the new week is likely to be flat-to-positive amid gains in Asian peers. Some support will come with a private report that industry leaders have expressed confidence in India's economy being resilient in the face of global headwinds in uncertainties, with the Confederation of Indian Industries' Business Confidence Index achieving its highest reading in two years for the October-December quarter. According to a statement by the industry body, Reflecting the optimism around India being in a sweet spot despite the rising global uncertainties, the latest CII Business Confidence Index rebounded to its highest reading in almost two years of 67.6 in the October-December quarter from 62.2 in the previous quarter. Traders may take note of Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that headline retail inflation may have fallen within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) tolerance band, but core inflation remains uncomfortably high and the central bank's focus is on the metric. However, there may be some cautiousness as foreign investors offloaded around Rs 15,000 crore worth of Indian equities in the first two weeks of January amid risks of Covid in some parts of the world and recession worries in the US. Traders may be concerned with a private report that India's growth is likely to disappoint at 4.5% in 2023 due to global spillovers, prompting 75 basis point of rate cuts in second half of 2023. Besides, the Reserve Bank said India's forex reserves declined by $1.268 billion to $561.583 billion for the week ended January 6. IT stocks will be in focus with a private report that India's IT services heavyweights delivered between 14-20 per cent on-year growth in topline for December quarter, as they raised guard on global uncertainties and choppy verticals, but remained hopeful that costs as well as business considerations will drive tech demand. There will be some buzz in auto industry stocks as wholesales data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) showed that passenger vehicles saw their highest-ever sales of 3.8 million units during the calendar year of 2022. This is around 400,000 units higher than the last peak in 2018. Banking stocks will be in limelight as RBI data showed that credit growth of scheduled commercial banks tapered off in the second fortnight of December, which fell to 14.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from 17.4 per cent a fortnight ago. There will be some earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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  • HDFC has acquired 1,38,664 equity shares of Rs 10 each of HCAL, its subsidiary, representing 6.49% of the paid-up share capital of HCAL, from some of its employees. 
  • L&T has entered into a Business Transfer Agreement to transfer the Carved-out Business of Smart World and Communication Business Unit to LTTS, a listed subsidiary of the company. 
  • Asian Paints has incorporated wholly owned subsidiary namely Asian Paints (Polymers) on January 11, 2023.
  • Bharti Airtel has launched its cutting edge 5G services in Muzaffarpur, Bodh Gaya & Bhagalpur. Airtel's 5G services are already live in Patna.
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