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NSE Intra-day chart (13 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 15 November 2023
Markets likely to get gap-up opening on firm global cues

Indian equity benchmarks concluded Monday's trading session in negative territory as investors engaged in profit-booking activities ahead of the scheduled release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later in the day. Markets started the week on a feeble note and traded under pressure for whole day as traders were cautious with a private report stating that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling spree continued as they dumped Indian equity worth over Rs 5,800 crore this month so far on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Selling further crept in as the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) cooled to a three-month low of 5.8 per cent in September from 10.3 per cent in August, on the back of moderation across all sub-sectors and use-based categories. Sentiments remained dampened as Fitch Ratings stated the geopolitical uncertainty from the conflict in Middle East could upend countries' inflation and growth calculations, leading to a higher than expected inflation for India as well. It stated higher oil prices would lead to higher-than-expected inflation rates in 2024, followed by corrections in 2025. Turkiye sees the highest percentage point rise in forecast inflation, followed by India and Poland. However, the India and Poland's relative increases would be much large. Traders paid no heed towards the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) stating that gross direct tax collection increased by 17.59 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 12.37 trillion in the period from April 1 to November 9. Direct tax collection (net of refunds) stood at Rs 10.6 trillion, 21.82 per cent higher than the net collection for the comparable period last year. Refunds amounting to Rs 1.77 trillion have been issued during the period. Traders also overlooked Union Minister for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Narayan Rane's statement that the MSME sector has achieved a significant milestone by generating over 15 crore employment opportunities. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 325.58 points or 0.50% to 64,933.87 and the CNX Nifty was down by 82.00 points or 0.42% to 19,443.55.

The US markets ended sharply higher on Tuesday, with Nasdaq settling over 300 points. The rally on markets came following the release of the Labor Department's highly anticipated report on consumer price inflation in the month of October. The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged in October after climbing by 0.4 percent in September. Street had expected consumer prices to inch up by 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices edged up by 0.2 percent in October after rising by 0.3 percent in September. Core prices were expected to rise by another 0.3 percent. The report also said the annual rate of consumer price growth slowed to 3.2 percent in October from 3.7 percent in September. Street had expected the pace of growth to decelerate to 3.3 percent. Core consumer prices were up by 4.0 percent compared to the same month a year ago, reflecting the smallest year-over-year increase since September 2021. The annual rate of core consumer price growth was expected to come in unchanged from 4.1 percent in the previous month. Besides, treasury yields moved sharply lower following the release of the report, adding to the buying interest on markets. On the economic data front, Airline stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the trading session, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index soaring by 6.7 percent to its best closing level in a month. Substantial strength was also visible among housing stocks, as reflected by the 5.5 percent spike by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. The index jumped to a three-month closing high. Interest rate-sensitive commercial real estate stocks also saw considerable strength, resulting in a 5.4 percent surge by the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.

Crude oil futures ended flat on Tuesday as traders reacted to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that oil markets would not be as tight as expected this quarter. The IEA said in its latest monthly report that that it anticipates a supply shortfall during the fourth quarter. But it will be roughly 30% smaller than previously projected, at about 900,000 barrels a day. Further, weak euro area GDP data and lingering concerns about global economic slowdown weighed on oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery settled flat at $78.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for January delivery fell $0.05 to settle at $82.47 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended lower on Monday tracking a negative trend in domestic equities. Persistent foreign fund outflows also weighed on the local unit. Traders were worried as India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) decelerated to 5.8 per cent in September 2023 from a 14-month high of 10.3 per cent in August 2023, in line with slowdown in manufacturing activity. Industrial production had grown by 3.3 per cent in September 2022. Though on an annual basis, the output of manufacturing and mining sectors showed an improvement. On the global front, the dollar climbed to its highest levels in over a year against the Japanese yen on Monday, supported by a scaling back of expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.32 (Provisional), weaker by 4 paise from its previous close of 83.28 on Friday.

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 12417.44 crore against gross selling of Rs 7089.36 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 3228.54 crore with gross sales of Rs 73.97 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5.46 crore against gross selling of Rs 10.96 crore.

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as tamer than expected inflation data bolstered the view that the Fed was probably done with rate hikes. Asian markets are trading in green on Wednesday tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets ended lower with cut of around half a percent on Monday as investors booked profits a day after clocking robust gains on the first session of Samvat 2080. Stock markets were closed on Tuesday for Diwali Balipratipada. Today, markets are likely to get gap-up opening following latest inflation readings in India and the US. In the US, consumer prices remained flat in October versus expectations of a gain of 0.1 per cent MoM. On an annual basis, the CPI climbed 3.2 per cent after rising 3.7 per cent in September. Besides, domestic retail inflation eased to a five-month low of 4.87 per in October from 5.02 per cent in September. India's wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the seventh month in a row in October at (-) 0.52 per cent on easing prices of food items. Some support will come with a private report that the Indian economy likely grew 6.7% in the July-September quarter. Traders may take note of report that Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has revealed that the central government is poised to introduce a comprehensive e-commerce policy and rules. Meanwhile, Chief negotiators of India and the UK are expected to soon hold next round of talks for the proposed free trade agreement to iron out differences on issues such as automobiles, medical devices, and movement of professionals, an official said. The UK team may come here for the 14th round of negotiations so that the talks can be concluded at the earliest. Metal stocks will be in focus as steel secretary Nagendra Nath Sinha said the steel industry plays a critical role in the country's growth trajectory. Sinha emphasised on the government's commitment to fostering a conducive environment for the steel sector while speaking during the inauguration of the steel ministry's pavilion at the India International Trade Fair. There will be some reaction in infrastructure sector stocks with report that as many as 417 infrastructure projects, each entailing an investment of Rs 150 crore or more, have been hit by cost overruns of more than Rs 4.77 lakh crore in September this year. Meanwhile, ASK Automotive is likely to make market debut today. The issue price is fixed at Rs 282.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)


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  • Coal India has reported 12.73% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 6813.50 crore for Q2FY24 as compared to Rs 6043.99 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank has launched Cardless EMI (Equated Monthly Instalments) Payments on Amazon Pay, to provide its pre-approved customers easy access to instant consumer finance.
  • ONGC is planning to start oil production from its much-delayed flagship deepsea project (Cluster-2 project in KG-DWN-98/2 block) in Krishna Godavari basin in Bay of Bengal this month, helping reverse years of decline in output.  
  • Reliance Industries has raised Rs 20,000 crore in the largest bond issue by a non-financial Indian firm, paying 7.79 per cent interest rate.

News Analysis