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NSE Intra-day chart (14 November 2022)
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Market Commentary 15 November 2022
Benchmarks likely to open in green on Tuesday

 

In a volatile trade, Indian equity benchmarks ended marginally lower on Monday, as investors awaited inflation data, due later in the day, for clues on the central bank's interest rate trajectory. Investors also awaited the last leg of corporate earnings for domestic cues. Key gauges made cautious start and fluctuated between losses and gains during the session, as traders were cautious with latest data released by the central bank showed that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.1 billion to $529.99 billion in the week ended November 4. Sentiments remained downbeat as a private report stated that asset management companies mobilised Rs 17,805 crore through 67 new fund offerings (NFOs) in the September 2022 quarter, a 64 per cent decline from the year-ago period, on expensive valuations and high volatility in equity markets. However, losses remain capped as Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das exuded confidence that India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy with a likely growth rate of 7% in 2022-23 on the back of strong macroeconomic fundamentals and financial sector stability. Some support also came as India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) eased further to 8.39% in the month of October 2022 as against 10.70% recorded in September 2022, primarily contributed by fall in the price of mineral oils, basic metals, fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment; textiles; other non-metallic mineral products; minerals etc. Traders also found some solace with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers globally over the next 10-15 years. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 170.89 points or 0.28% to 61,624.15 and the CNX Nifty was down by 20.55 points or 0.11% to 18,329.15.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday, with Nasdaq settling cut of over one percent, as traders expressed some uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets following last week's rally. Traders were reluctant to make significant moves, with a lack of major US economic data keeping some traders on the sidelines. Reports on producer prices, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production, housing starts and existing home sales are likely to attract attention in the coming days. On the sectoral front, housing stocks turned in some of the market's worst performances on the day, with the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index plunging by 2.9 percent after ending last Friday's trading at its best closing level in almost three months. Substantial weakness was also visible among commercial real estate stocks, as reflected by the 2.5 percent slump by the Dow Jones US Real Estate Index. Banking stocks also showed a significant move to the downside, dragging the KBW Bank Index down by 2.3 percent. The index ended last Friday's trading at a two-month closing high. Brokerage, retail and telecom stocks also saw notable weakness on the day, while pharmaceutical stocks showed a strong move to the upside. Stock specific development, Shares of Qurate Retail, the media company that owns home shopping networks QVC and HSN, popped 7% after famed investor Michael Burry revealed a fresh bet on the company.

 

Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Monday on concerns about the outlook for energy demand from China and on a downward revision in demand growth forecast by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 100,000 barrels a day to 2.55 million barrels per day. Further, a stronger dollar weighed as well on oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $3.09 or about 3.5 percent at $85.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $3.25 or about 3.39 percent to settle at $92.74 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.     

 

Indian rupee ended considerably lower against dollar on Monday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Traders were worried as central bank showed that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.1 billion to $529.99 billion in the week ended November 4. Investors overlooked reports that India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) eased further to 8.39% in the month of October 2022 as against 10.70% recorded in September 2022, primarily contributed by fall in the price of mineral oils, basic metals, fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment; textiles; other non-metallic mineral products; minerals etc. On the global front, sterling fell against the dollar on Monday as traders braced for the UK government's fiscal statement on Thursday in a data-heavy week that could shed light on the state of Britain's economy. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.26 (Provisional), weaker by 48 paise from its previous close of 80.78 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 14667.00 crore against gross selling of Rs 7750.89 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 424.14 crore against gross selling of Rs 102.23 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11.18 crore against gross selling of Rs 19.16 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday as investors reacted to hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Tuesday ahead of a slew of economic data from China, and following the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Indian markets ended volatile trade in red on Monday dragged down by index heavyweights ICICI Bank, ITC and Reliance Industries amid largely weak Asian markets. Today, the start of session is likely to be in green after both the WPI-based and CPI retail inflation registered a notable decline in October, coupled with positive cues from Asian counterparts. Fall in oil prices overnight on China demand worries likely to support domestic indices. Sentiments will get a boost as the government data showed that retail inflation dropped to 6.77 per cent in October from 7.41 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to easing prices in the food basket. Some support will come as Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said inflation in India is less as compared to the US, the UK and other countries. He also claimed that the country's economy is progressing rapidly under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Foreign fund inflows also likely to aid domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net bought shares worth Rs 1,089.41 crore on November 14, as per provisional data available on the NSE. Traders may take note of a World Bank report stating that India will need to invest $840 billion over the next 15 years to upgrade its urban infrastructure if it is to effectively meet the needs of its fast-growing population in cities. Oil & gas sector stocks will be in focus as Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said the Centre is ready for bringing petrol and diesel under the GST regime but it is unlikely that the states will agree to such a move. There will be some reaction in auto component industry stocks as credit ratings agency ICRA in a report said auto component suppliers are expected to log an 8-10 per cent growth in revenue this fiscal driven by healthy domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and pent-up demand from the aftermarket even as headwinds persist on the exports front. Edible oil industry stocks will be in limelight as industry body SEA said India's edible oil import bill rose 34.18 per cent to Rs 1.57 lakh crore in the oil year ending October 2022, while in volume terms it rose 6.85 per cent to 140.3 lakh tonne. Meanwhile, Fusion Micro Finance is likely to get listed on stock exchanges today. The company had launched an initial public offering (IPO) worth over Rs 1,100 crore in November, received an oversubscription of 2.95 times on exchanges.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,329.15

18,293.89

18,381.94

BSE Sensex

61,624.15

61,492.04

61,836.25

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

554.74

108.70

107.96

109.71

Hindalco Industries

301.35

454.60

439.55

464.15

Coal India

187.62

246.90

243.35

253.35

Tata Motors

179.96

433.50

425.44

439.64

ITC

176.39

347.45

343.71

354.06

 

  • HDFC's wholly-owned subsidiary -- HDFC Investments has entered into a Share Purchase agreement to sell 92,445 equity shares (around 4.01% stake) in Lentra AI.
  • Hindalco Industries has reported fall of 35.47% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 2,205 crore for Q2FY23 as compared to Rs 3,417 crore for Q2FY22.
  • Infosys' business process management arm -- Infosys BPM has launched the Center of AI and Automation in Poland, in collaboration with IBM, to bring digital excellence to enterprises globally. 
  • Reliance Industries has been awarded the project to build India's first multimodal logistics park in Chennai, Tamil Nadu.
News Analysis