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Market Commentary 15 July 2022
Benchmarks to make flat-to-positive start tacking Asian peers

 

Indian equity benchmarks extended their fall for the fourth consecutive day and ended marginally lower on Thursday due to selling in IT and TECK shares amid weak global equities. Key gauges made positive start as traders took some support with a private report stated that Indian economy is projected to grow 7.1-7.6 per cent in the current financial year despite shifting geopolitical realities across the world. Some support also came with a private report stating that private equity investments in proptech firms rose 35 per cent to $741 million last year as investors sought to tap huge opportunities amid rising use of technology in the realty sector. Traders also took a note of Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the new Australian government supports the trade pact signed with India, and they are expected to soon approach their parliament for approval of the agreement. However, Indian indices gave away their initial gains and entered into red terrain in late morning deals, as exchange data showed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the capital market on Wednesday, offloading shares worth Rs 2,839.52 crore. Some concern came with India Ratings and Research's report stated that Non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) may rely more on banks for their funding requirements as interest rates are hardening in the capital market. Also, India was ranked low at 135th place in terms of gender parity, despite an improvement of five places since last year on better performance in areas of economic participation and opportunity. Traders overlooked report that India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 15.18% in the month of June 2022 as against 15.88% in May. Month-over-Month decrease witnessed in WPI for manufactured products but primary articles and Fuel & Power saw a marginal rise. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 98.00 points or 0.18% to 53,416.15 and the CNX Nifty was down by 28.00 points or 0.18% to 15,938.65.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Thursday as big bank earnings kicked off with disappointing results. JPMorgan Chase shares sank 3.5% after the bank added to reserves for bad loans and halted its share buybacks, signaling a more cautious economic outlook. As profits dipped, It warned that the economy could take a hit from surging inflation, geopolitical tensions and dwindling consumer confidence sometime down the road. Morgan Stanley shares slipped about 0.4% on the back of a sharp decline in investment banking revenue. Further, concerns about inflation and higher interest rates also continued to weigh on the markets after the Labor Department released a report showing US producer prices increased by more than expected in the month of June. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand jumped by 1.1 percent in June after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.9 percent in May. Street had expected producer prices to increase by 0.8 percent, matching the advance originally reported for the previous month. The annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 11.3 percent in June, reflecting the largest spike since a record 11.6 percent jump in March. Street had expected the annual rate of producer price growth to slow to 10.7 percent in June from 10.9 percent in May. Meanwhile, first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly inched higher in the week ended July 9th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report showed initial jobless claims crept up to 244,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 235,000. The uptick surprised street, who had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged. On the sectoral front, significant weakness remained visible among steel stocks, as reflected by the 4.2 percent nosedive by the NYSE Arca Steel Index. With the drop, the index fell to a one-year closing low.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday amid fears of a possible recession due to rising interest rates. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 75 basis points or 100 basis points at the upcoming meeting later this month. Further, fresh Covid-related curbs in several parts of China and the dollar's sharp uptick also weighed on oil prices. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it expects global oil demand to rise at a slower pace than 2022 in 2023 on account of high prices and risks such as inflation. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery fell $0.52 or 0.5 percent to settle at $95.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for September delivery dropped $0. 47 or 0.5 percent to settle at $99.10 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Continuing previous session downfall, rupee settled at a new record low against US currency on Thursday after the US consumer price index rose to a multi-year high of 9.1 percent in June that fuelled the speculation that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates aggressively to tame soaring prices. Traders were also worried as India's trade deficit ballooned to a record of $26.18 billion, according to government data. The trade deficit stood at $9.60 billion in June 2021. Imports expanded by 57.55 percent to $66.31 billion in June compared to the year-ago month, the data showed, while India's merchandise exports in June grew by 23.52 percent to $40.13 billion. On the global front, sterling fell on Thursday as another bout of risk aversion sent investors snapping up dollars and selling currencies deemed riskier when the outlook is so uncertain. Finally, the rupee ended at 79.99 (provisional), weaker by 18 paisa from its previous close of 79.81 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5096.78 crore against gross selling of Rs 7817.33 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 3024.70 crore against gross selling of Rs 3575.86 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.89 crore against gross selling of Rs 7.79 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Thursday as investors feared aggressive rate hikes down the road. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday amid mixed cues from Wall Street overnight. Indian markets slipped into the red in a volatile session on Thursday, as the heavyweight financial and IT pockets gave up initial gains in the second half of the day. Today, markets are likely to make flat-to-positive start following Asian peers. Traders will be taking encouragement with the RBI report showing that bank credit grew by 13.29 per cent to Rs 123.81 lakh crore and deposits by 9.77 per cent to Rs 169.61 lakh crore in the fortnight ended on July 1. Some support will come as the government data showed that India's merchandise exports in June grew by 23.52 per cent to $40.13 billion. Traders may take note of the finance ministry's economic division in its monthly economic report for June stating that with global prices set to soften due to fears of a recession, the pressures caused by inflation in the Indian economy may weaken as well. However, there may be some cautiousness with report that India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports. Traders may be concerned as the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said consumer sentiments continue to be sluggish with its index growing by 1.1% in June 2022. Though better than the 0.8% growth in May, it has slowed down significantly from 4-5% in January and February to 3% in March and April. Banking stocks will be in focus as Fitch Ratings said mounting repayment pressure for some borrowers, particularly micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, amid India's interest rate hikes will test banks' loan underwriting quality. However, it said asset-quality risks from higher rates should generally be moderate for most banks. There will be some reaction in stocks related to advertising industry with a private report that the Indian advertising market will remain the fastest-growing in the world over the next two years. There will be some earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

15,938.65

15,840.95

16,053.60

BSE Sensex

53,416.15

53,099.52

53,797.03

                        

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation

384.64

127.25

123.16

131.96

ITC

134.14

290.40

287.59

294.79

Bharti Airtel

113.79

642.90

630.36

653.81

Tata Motors

107.44

428.00

423.79

431.74

NTPC

97.75

148.95

147.54

149.84

 

  • Infosys has inked definitive agreement to acquire BASE life science, a leading technology and consulting firm in the life sciences industry, in Europe. 
  • HDFC is all set to launch an issue of bonds on a private placement basis on July 15, 2022 to raise up to Rs 5,000 crore. 
  • Tata Consumer Products has forayed into the honey and preserves category by extending its premium water brand Himalayan into the segment. 
  • Bharti Airtel has received approval for allotment of 71,176,839 equity shares of the face value of Rs 5 each fully paid up, on preferential basis to Google International LLC (Google) at an issue price of Rs 734 per equity share.
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