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NSE Intra-day chart (12 May 2021)
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Market Commentary 14 May 2021
Benchmarks likely to get cautious start on Friday

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended the disappointing day of trade in red terrain with Sensex and Nifty settling below their crucial 48,700 and 14,700 levels, respectively. Sentiments remain dampened since beginning of the trade as traders remain worried over economic growth. Rating agency Moody's has cut India's gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for FY22 to 9.3 per cent from the earlier projection of 13.7 per cent and has ruled out a sovereign rating upgrade - at least for now. Traders also took note of the United Nations' statement that India is forecast to grow at 10.1 per cent in 2022, becoming the fastest-growing major economy in the world, but cautioned that the growth outlook of 2021 was highly fragile as the country was the new hotbed of the pandemic. Markets traded continuously in red throughout the day as domestic rating agency Care Ratings revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.2 per cent from 10.2 per cent it had estimated earlier. This is the fourth revision by the rating agency in its GDP growth forecast for FY2021-22 since March this year. On March 24 this year, it had projected GDP growth for FY22 at 11-11.2 per cent but revised downwards forecast to 10.7 per cent on April 5 and further to 10.2 per cent on April 21. Sentiments also weighed down on reports that overall job postings declined by 4 per cent (year-on-year) as of April and openings for entry-level roles declined by 5 per cent (month-on-month), according to latest data provided by the company. Industries like travel and tourism, education and engineering, cement, construction, iron/steel continue to show decline in job postings. The employment index by online job search platform Monster saw a decline in job posting activity in April compared to March by 3 per cent. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 471.01 points or 0.96% to 48,690.80, while the CNX Nifty was down by 154.25 points or 1.04% to 14,696.50.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday, rebounding from steep losses in the previous session, as investors picked up shares after the pullback. Investors shrugged off a Labor Department report showing producer prices increased by more than expected in the month of April. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand rose by 0.6 percent in April after jumping by 1.0 percent in March. Street had expected producer prices to increase by 0.3 percent. The report also showed the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 6.2 percent in April from 4.2 percent in March, with prices showing the biggest annual increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November of 2010. Meanwhile, a separate report from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for US unemployment benefits fell by more than expected in the week ended May 8th, dipping to 473,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised level of 507,000. Street had expected jobless claims to edge down to 490,000 from the 498,000 originally reported for the previous week. With the bigger than expected decrease, jobless claims once again fell to their lowest level since hitting 256,000 in the week ended March 14, 2020.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Thursday, weighed down by rising worries about outlook for energy demand and on reports that Colonial Pipeline has resumed operations at its facilities. Concerns over a disruption in the supply chain eased after the Colonial Pipeline Company announced that it was restarting pipeline operations and that the supply chain would return to normal sometime soon. Crude oil futures for June fell $2.26 or 3.4 percent to settle at $63.82 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude dropped $2.44 or 3.52 percent to settle at $66.88 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee concluded weaker against dollar on account of continued dollar demand from importers and banks. Besides, losses in local equity market also hit the rupee sentiment. Traders were worried as Moody's cut India's gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for FY22 to 9.3 per cent from the earlier projection of 13.7 per cent and has ruled out a sovereign rating upgrade - at least for now. Adding more pessimism, domestic rating agency Care Ratings revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.2 per cent from 10.2 per cent it had estimated earlier. This is the fourth revision by the rating agency in its GDP growth forecast for FY2021-22 since March this year. On March 24 this year, it had projected GDP growth for FY22 at 11-11.2 per cent but revised downwards forecast to 10.7 per cent on April 5 and further to 10.2 per cent on April 21. On the global front, pound held steady after UK GDP data for March beat market expectations, keeping investors optimistic about the UK's economic recovery from the pandemic. Finally, the rupee ended 73.42, weaker by 8 paise from its previous close of 73.34 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyer in equity segment, while net seller in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7574.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 6858.82 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 64.15 crore with gross sales of Rs 242.33 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1341.67 crore against gross selling of Rs 44.98 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday after data showed fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week and producer prices surged last month. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday following overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets extended their previous session losses and ended sharply lower on Wednesday as global rating agency Moody's lowered India's GDP forecast for the financial year 2021-22 and the country reported a record surge in coronavirus deaths. Markets remain closed on Thursday on account of Id-Ul-Fitr or Ramzan Eid. Today, the markets are likely to make cautious start amid worries over the economic impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and lockdowns and restrictions in various states. Though, drop in Covid cases may support the market sentiments. India reported a dip in fresh Covid cases to below 3.5 lakh mark at 3,43,122. This was lower than Wednesday's figure of 3,62,720 cases. Besides, V K Paul, Member (Health), Niti Aayog, said over two billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines will be made available in the country in five months between August and December, enough to vaccinate the entire population. He added that the Russian Covid vaccine Sputnik V is also likely to be available by next week. Market participants will also react to the IIP and CPI numbers released on Wednesday after market hours. India's factory output climbed 22.4 per cent in March, benefiting from the base effect of the lockdown-marred month a year back as well as a turnaround in the manufacturing sector, while retail inflation slipped to a three-month low of 4.29 per cent in April. Investors are eyeing WPI inflation data for April slated to be declared later in the day. Some support may come as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said renewing stalled real estate projects will significantly improve economic sentiment in the country grappling with a second wave of Covid. There will be some buzz in power stocks with the CEEW Centre for Energy Finance (CEEW-CEF) Market Handbook stating that India added 12.1 gigawatt (GW) power generation capacity in 2020-21, of which 7.7 GW was from renewable energy sources. FMCG stocks will in focus with a private report indicating that the April-June period remains largely volatile and dynamic for the country's Rs 4.3-trillion fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry as the second Covid-19 wave rages on. There will be some reaction in aluminum sector stocks as the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) expressed urgent need for at least 5 per cent remission rate for the sector under the tax refund scheme RoDTEP to ensure global competitiveness. Meanwhile, PowerGrid Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT) IPO shares are scheduled to be listed on stock exchanges on Friday. The public issue was subscribed 4.83 times on the last day of the subscription. The Rs 7,735-crore issue received bids for 205 crore units against 42 crore units on offer. This is the first Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT) in the country to be floated by a public sector company.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

14,696.50

14,622.79

14,797.14

BSE Sensex

48,690.80

48,437.26

49,057.82

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

1,115.84

326.00

316.59

335.09

NTPC

621.58

113.30

111.11

116.11

State Bank of India

534.36

367.70

361.90

373.50

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

497.18

115.10

112.15

119.60

Coal India

429.59

153.50

150.30

158.20

 

  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has launched Ertapenem for Injection, 1 g/vial, a therapeutic equivalent generic version of INVANZ for injection, 1 g/vial approved by the USFDA. 
  • Infosys has been selected by Britvic as a strategic end-to-end partner to help them deliver their strategic transformation roadmap and operations, across Applications, Cloud Infrastructure, Service Management and End User Computing. 
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm -- Reliance Jio Infocomm has added 42,66,819 customers in February 2021. 
  • M&M's sales volume for the quarter ended June 2021 is estimated to be lower by 15-20 per cent as compared to Q4FY21 due to the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
News Analysis