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NSE Intra-day chart (12 April 2023)
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Market Commentary 13 April 2023
Markets likely to get cautious start on weak global cues


Indian equity benchmarks extended gains for the eighth straight session on Wednesday, propelled by intense buying in Healthcare, IT and Auto stocks. A strengthening rupee and positive opening in European markets further bolstered sentiment. Markets made a cautious start as traders remained on sidelines ahead of macro-economic data -- consumer price index (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) -- due to be released later in the day. However, key gauges soon inched gradually higher as the day progressed as traders continued to take support with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the state-run official weather agency, predicting normal rains during this year's monsoon season - June to September - at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) in spite of the anticipated El Nino conditions. Markets extended gains and traded at day's high points in late afternoon deals, taking support from reports that foreign investors turned net buyers of Indian shares over the past couple of sessions. Foreign investors bought about $1 billion in domestic equities from March 28 to April 10. Traders took note of report that trade ministers of India and France have held discussions related to the ongoing talks for a free trade agreement between India and the European Union. The ministers discussed priority areas related to India - EU FTA (free trade agreement) negotiations where issues related to market access were deliberated. Investors awaited the kick-off of the fourth-quarter reporting season with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to report result post market hours. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 235.05 points or 0.39% to 60,392.77 and the CNX Nifty was up by 90.10 points or 0.51% to 17,812.40.


The US markets ended lower on Wednesday after the minutes of the latest Fed meeting suggested the recent banking sector turmoil could lead to a recession. The minutes of the March 21-22 meeting revealed that the staff's economic projection in light of the banking sector turmoil included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years. However, markets initially benefited from a positive reaction to a Labor Department report showing U.S. consumer prices increased by less than expected in the month of March. The Labor Department said its consumer price index inched up by 0.1 percent in March after climbing by 0.4 percent in February. Street had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3 percent. The report also showed the annual rate of consumer price growth slowed to 5.0 percent in March from 6.0 percent in February. The year-over-year growth was slower than the 5.2 percent expected by street and marks the smallest 12-month increase since May 2021. The report also said core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose by 0.4 percent in March after advancing by 0.5 percent in February. The increase matched street estimates. On the sectoral front, Significant weakness emerged among semiconductor stocks, as reflected by the 1.8 percent slump by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Retail stocks also came under pressure over the course of the session, with the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index falling by 1.6 percent.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday after tamer-than-expected inflation data contributed to an extended pullback in the value of the U.S. dollar. The data led to speculation the Federal Reserve is close to ending its interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the Energy Information Administration showing an unexpected uptick in U.S. crude oil inventories in the week ended April 7th. The report said crude oil inventories crept up by 0.6 million barrels last week compared to expectations for a decrease of 0.6 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery rose $1.73 or 2.12 percent to settle at $83.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery surged $1.72 or 2 percent to settle at $87.33 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.   


Indian rupee ended higher against the US dollar on Wednesday as buying in domestic equities bolstered investor sentiment. Traders got support after International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected India's retail inflation to ease to 4.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.7 per cent in FY23, and the current account deficit to come down to 2.2 per cent of GDP from an estimated 2.6 per cent a year ago. However, it slashed its economic growth forecast for India by 20 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent for 2023-24 (FY24), citing lesser scope for pent-up demand due to historical revisions to data. On the global front, sterling held steady against the dollar and dipped against the euro on Wednesday as traders waited for key U.S. inflation data as well as comments from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.09 (Provisional), stronger by 3 paise from its previous close of 82.12 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7095.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 6065.41 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 847.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 1289.45 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.07 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.33 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting revealed concern among several members of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) regarding the regional bank liquidity crisis. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday following a lower close on Wall Street. Indian markets ended higher for an eighth consecutive day on Wednesday amid sustained inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Today, start of the last trading session of holiday truncated week is likely to be cautious amid weak global cues. There may be some volatility in the trade ahead of weekly F&O expiry later in the day. Traders will be concerned over the growth prospects as the UN Trade and Development Conference (UNCTAD) in its latest Trade and Development Report Update stated that India's economic growth is projected to decelerate to 6 per cent in 2023 from 6.6 per cent in 2022. It also expects global growth in 2023 to drop to 2.1%, compared to the 2.2% projected in September 2022, assuming the financial fallout from higher interest rates is contained to the bank runs and bailouts of the first quarter. Traders may take note of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that there is a need to augment present global efforts, including those of the G-20 to address growing debt distress across the globe, as she stressed on debt transparency and information-sharing on this issue. However, some respite may come later in the day as traders may react positively to encouraging macro-economic data. The government data showed that CPI-based retail inflation in India eased further and fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March on an annual basis as food inflation moderated on account of falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. Inflation stood at 6.95 per cent in March 2022. Also, data from the Ministry of Statistics showed that India's industrial output, as measured by the index of Industrial production or IIP, rose marginally to 5.6 per cent in February from 5.5 per cent in January 2023, mainly due to good performance of the power, mining and manufacturing sectors. Some support will come as the International Monetary Fund said India is expected to have a stable debt-to-GDP ratio going forward. Meanwhile, the commerce ministry said trade ministers of India and France have held discussions related to the ongoing talks for a free trade agreement between India and the European Union. Information and Technology (IT) industry stocks will be in focus after Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported net profit of Rs 11,392 crore for Q4, up 14.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY). Investors await more of financial results from India Inc for domestic cues, with Infosys due to post its earnings later in the day.


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  • BPCL has received an approval from the MP government for a revised proposal of Rs 43,000-crore to Rs 50,000-crore for the expansion of Bina Refinery and setting up of a petrochemical project. 
  • Coal India's subsidiary -- Eastern Coalfields has commissioned its first highwall mining project at Nimcha Colliery in West Bengal. 
  • Bharti Airtel has launched its cutting edge 5G services in the Union Territory of Ladakh.
  • Adani Enterprises has incorporated a Wholly Owned Subsidiary company namely, Pelma Collieries.
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