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NSE Intra-day chart (11 October 2023)
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Market Commentary 12 October 2023
Benchmarks to get flat-to-positive start ahead of IIP, CPI data

Indian equity benchmarks continued their gaining momentum for the second consecutive day and ended with gains of over half a percent on Wednesday backed by buying across a majority of sectors, with stocks from the Telecom, Basic Materials and Auto sectors being the biggest movers. Markets made a positive start and stayed in green for whole day, as traders took support with the Ministry of Finance stating that India's gross direct tax collection increased by 17.95 per cent on the year to Rs 11.07 lakh crore in the period from April 1 to October 9. Sentiments remained positive in late afternoon deals, as traders took support with private report stating that World Bank group's India-born chief economist Indermit Gill is upbeat on India's focus on infrastructure, digital public goods and overall economic management. Traders remained optimistic as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India is a global bright spot, a powerhouse of growth and innovation. Investors found support after former economic affairs secretary Atanu Chakraborty said that India is expected to become a $30-trillion economy by 2050 pushed by robust consumption and exports. Adding to the optimism, the Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas and Housing & Urban Affairs, Hardeep Singh Puri highlighted the fast progress made by India in green and clean energy sector and said India's energy demand will continue to provide fuel for future economic growth and is bound to grow exponentially in the coming years. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 393.69 points or 0.60% to 66,473.05 and the CNX Nifty was up by 121.50 points or 0.62% to 19,811.35.

The US markets ended in green on Wednesday as treasury yields saw further downside. Treasuries have recently benefited from their appeal as a safe haven amid the deadly conflict between Hamas and Israel. Traders largely shrugged off a Labor Department report showing producer prices in the U.S. increased by slightly more than expected in the month of September. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.5 percent in September after advancing by 0.7 percent in August. Street had expected prices to rise by 0.4 percent. The producer price growth was partly due to a continued surge in energy prices, which spiked by 3.3 percent in September after skyrocketing by 10.3 percent in August. The report also said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 2.2 percent in September from a revised 2.0 percent in August. Street had expected the pace of price growth to come in unchanged compared to the 1.6 percent originally reported for the previous month. However, upside remained limited as the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched report on consumer price inflation in the month of September. On the sectoral front, Gold stocks turned in a strong performance on the day, resulting in a 2.3 percent jump by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The strength among gold stocks came amid an increase by the price of the precious metal, with gold for December delivery climbing $12 to $1,887.30 an ounce.

Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia's pledge to help stabilise the market outweighed concerns about supply disruptions amid the tensions in the Middle East. A private report said oil firm Saudi Aramco told at least four refiners in North Asia that it would supply them with the full contractual volumes nominated for November. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report that global oil inventories will likely fall by 200,000 bpd in the second half of 2023 due to voluntary output cuts from Saudi Arabia and reduced production among OPEC+ countries. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery fell $2.48 or about 2.9 percent to settle at $83.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery dropped $1.83 or about 2.1 percent to settle at $86.48 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian Rupee ended higher against the US dollar on Wednesday amid robust buying in domestic equities and a weak American currency overseas. Traders took encouragement with Ministry of Finance's statement that India's gross direct tax collection increased by 17.95 per cent on the year to Rs 11.07 lakh crore in the period from April 1 to October 9. On the global front, the pound held steady on Wednesday, recovering some stability after an intensely volatile week that has been dominated by safe-haven flows on the back of violence in Israel and by a sudden shift in expectations for interest rates. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.20 (Provisional), stronger by 5 paise from its previous close of 83.25 on Tuesday.

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8083.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 8987.70 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 978.03 crore with gross sales of Rs 465.53 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.84 crore against gross selling of Rs 7.79 crore.

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday after the FOMC's September meeting minutes showed the Fed is poised to proceed carefully on interest rate decision going forward. Asian markets are trading in green on Thursday following overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets ended with solid gains for a second session on Wednesday as traders continued to set aside fears related to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start ahead of the key inflation data in India and the US. There are expectations that the India's inflation eased in the month of September. Also, market participants awaiting the industrial growth data to be out later in the day. Investors are likely to keep eye on IT stocks after as TCS' Q2 profit beat estimates and Infosys and HCL Technologies are scheduled to announce Q2 earnings today. Some support will come as India and the United Kingdom (UK) are likely to sign a Foreign Trade Agreement (FTA) by the end of October as both parties aim to iron out differences on key issues, including rules of origin and visas for Indian professionals. However, traders may be concerned as according to the latest estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its Fiscal Monitor report India's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to peak at 82.3 per cent in FY25, and then it may gradually ease to touch 80.5 per cent in FY29. Traders may take note of report that Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri warned surging oil prices could hinder the economic recovery of many nations by curbing demand. Meanwhile, the government has decided to hold off introducing the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for additional sectors until it verifies the efficacy of existing initiatives. Steel industry stocks will be in focus with a private report that strong demand in the domestic market, coupled with an increase in raw material prices, is pushing up steel prices. There will be some reaction in sugar industry stocks with a private report that the Indian government is likely to restrict sugar exports after poor monsoon rains. Aviation industry stocks will be in limelight with a private report that average daily domestic traffic increased by 1.65 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M) to 408,906 in September.

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  • Wipro has subscribed 9.95% equity share in FPEL Ujwal on October 10, 2023, with objective to enhance the proportion of usage of renewable energy for its offices in Karnataka. 
  • Axis Bank and Fibe, India's leading Fintech, have partnered to launch India's first-ever numberless credit card for tech-savvy Gen Zs.  
  • Larsen & Toubro's Hydrocarbon Business has secured a Letter of Intent for a Mega onshore project from a prestigious client in the Middle East. 
  • Mahindra & Mahindra's subsidiary -- Mahindra Last Mile Mobility has received the first tranche of Rs 300 crore from the International Finance Corporation.

News Analysis