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NSE Intra-day chart (11 September 2023)
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Market Commentary 12 September 2023
Markets likely to get positive start ahead of CPI, IIP data


Indian equity benchmarks extended their rally for the seventh straight day on Monday, with the Nifty hitting a fresh record closing high during the session and the Sensex reclaiming the 67,000 mark on all-round buying. The successful G20 summit and buying in index majors Power Grid Corporation and Axis Bank also added to the winning momentum in equities. The markets made a gap up opening and traded with a positive bias throughout the day, as traders got encouragement after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said India's external debt of $624.7 billion at March-end 2023 with a debt-service ratio of 5.3 per cent is within the comfort zone and modest from a cross-country perspective. Some support also came in as the Reserve Bank said India's forex reserves jumped by $4.039 billion to $598.897 billion for the week ended September 1. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $30 million to $594.858 billion. Key gauges extended gains in late afternoon deals as sentiments remained upbeat with private report stating that India is well placed to benefit from geopolitical and economic trends that are driving the diversification of Asia's manufacturing supply chain, and it is also the country's manufacturing moment. Some optimism also came as India and Brazil have agreed to work together for the expansion of India-Mercosur preferential trade agreement (PTA) to further promote economic ties. Traders also took a note of report stating that India needs to grow at 8-9 per cent for the next 20 years to become a developed nation by 2047 as envisioned by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Traders overlooked provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showing that foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 224.22 crore on September 8. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 528.17 points or 0.79% to 67,127.08 and the CNX Nifty was up by 176.40 points or 0.89% to 19,996.35.


The US markets ended higher on Monday with Nasdaq settling over one percent higher, on easing concerns about the outlook for interest rates after a private report suggested a shift in Federal Reserve officials' stance on rates. The central bank is likely to pause its recent series of rate hikes next week then take a harder look at whether more are needed. While some Fed officials to still prefer to err on the side of raising rates too much, other see risks as more balanced and worry about unnecessarily causing a downturn or triggering financial turmoil. The tech-heavy Nasdaq received a boost from a surge by shares of Tesla, with the electric car maker spiking by 10.1 percent after private broker upgraded its rating on the company's stock to Overweight from Equal-Weight. Chipmaker Qualcomm also jumped by 3.9 percent after announcing an agreement with Apple to supply Snapdragon 5G Modem-RF Systems for smartphone launches in 2024, 2025 and 2026. Moreover, shares of Hostess Brands (TWNK) soared by 19.1 percent after the Twinkie maker agreed to be acquired by J.M. Smucker (SJM) in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $5.6 billion. On the sectoral front, Airline stocks turned in a strong performance on the day, resulting in a 1.7 percent advance by the NYSE Arca Airline Index. The index continued to regain ground after ending last Thursday's trading at a four-month closing low. Retail, tobacco and software stocks also saw notable, while oil and natural gas stocks came under pressure over the course of the session.


Crude oil futures ended in red on Monday on demand Concerns. Concerns about the outlook for energy demand from China hurt oil prices. Traders looked ahead to the release of key U.S. inflation and other data this week that could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates. Oil prices retreated a bit after having climbed to 10-month highs last week on Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to extend their supply cuts. Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery fell $0.22 or 0.3 percent to settle at $87.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for November delivery added $0.20 or 0.22 percent to settle at $90.64 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


The Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Monday despite positive cues from domestic equity markets. Investors awaited India's retail inflation data for August and industrial output figures for July, due on tomorrow. Traders overlooked Reserve Bank's statement that India's forex reserves jumped by $4.039 billion to $598.897 billion for the week ended September 1. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $30 million to $594.858 billion. On the global front, yen jumped on Monday as comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stoked hopes that Japan could soon herald a new era away from negative rates, while the dollar slid ahead of this week's key U.S. inflation reading. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.03 (Provisional), weaker by 1 paisa from its previous close of 83.02 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9886.47 crore against gross selling of Rs 9983.54 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 550.39 crore with gross sales of Rs 543.50 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 47.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 49.15 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Monday as signs of easing inflation and comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen boosted hopes that the U.S. economy is headed toward a soft landing. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Tuesday ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could signal that U.S. interest rates may have peaked. Indian markets closed the session with robust gains and extended their winning streak for the seventh straight session day on Monday, as enthusiasm over the G20 Summit outweighed muted cues from global markets. Today, domestic indices are likely to extend previous session's gaining momentum with positive start tracking overnight gains on Wall Street and ahead of the India's August consumer inflation and July Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, which will be released after market hours. There are expectations that August retail inflation to have cooled down from a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July as vegetable prices moderated. Foreign fund inflows likely to support domestic sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) purchased shares worth Rs 1,473.09 crore on September 11. Some support will come as commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said India and Saudi Arabia can look at doubling bilateral trade to $100 billion in the coming years from about $52 billion at present while making it more balanced. Traders may take note of Secretary in the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) Rajesh Kumar Singh's statement that the government is looking at further easing foreign direct investment (FDI) norms in the space sector to attract overseas players. Meanwhile, India has agreed to bring down the import duty to 5-10 per cent on some fresh and processed food items as part of a larger dispute settlement between New Delhi and Washington at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The duties will be reduced on import of frozen turkey, frozen duck, fresh/frozen/dried/processed blueberries, and cranberries. Currently, these items attract import duty of around 30-45 per cent. Stocks related to steel will be in focus as India imposed an anti-dumping duty on some Chinese steel for five years, according to a government notification, following concern raised by the steel industry over potential dumping by Chinese sellers. Railways and infrastructure relates stocks likely to be in limelight in the near term following the announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor IMEC) after the just-concluded G20 summit.


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