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NSE Intra-day chart (09 September 2022)
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Market Commentary 12 September 2022
Markets to open in green on strong global cues; IIP, CPI eyed


Indian equity benchmarks managed to end the volatile day of trade with marginal gains as profit booking in later part of the trade ate most of the initial gains. Markets made a gap-up opening as traders took encouragement with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India has ramped up the import of crude oil from Russia at discounted prices amid sanctions on Moscow as part of the country's inflation management. Sentiments also remained jubilant after Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the efforts of the Central government for the welfare of the citizens, including the ones toward agriculture and rural households and said that it is the government's priority to support crores of farmers all across the nation at every step. Besides, the joint study conducted by both countries for the proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) said that India's exports to Bangladesh may increase by additional $10 billion in a time span of five years if both countries sign a free trade agreement (FTA). However, traders started booking profit at higher levels where Sensex surpass 60,100 level. Traders turned little cautious on report that the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said consumer sentiments in India deteriorated in August 2022 and in the first week of September, after having improved substantially in the previous month, with significant dip in urban sentiments. According to CMIE, the Index of Consumer Sentiments (ICS) shrunk by 0.5% in August, after having risen by an impressive 6.7% in July, and further by a 3.1% in the first week of September. Anxiety remained amongst investors after India Ratings in its latest report has said that falling wage growth is emerging as a bigger worry in India as it leads to tepid demand and results in under-utilisation of capacity, further widening the output gap. However, markets some-how managed to went home with marginal gains as some solace came with report that India and US will very soon hold the next ministerial-level meeting of the Trade Policy Forum (TPF) in America to discuss ways for promoting trade and investment between the countries. The forum is an inter-agency collaboration led by the US Trade Representative (USTR). Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 104.92 points or 0.18% to 59,793.14 and the CNX Nifty was up by 34.60 points or 0.19% to 17,833.35.


Magnifying their previous session's gains, the US markets closed sharply higher on Friday on account of bargain hunting, as the major averages extended the recovery from their worst levels in over a month. The markets ended higher despite hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell and a large interest rate rise in the EU. Friday's gain for Wall Street equities came a day after Fed chair Jay Powell reiterated hawkish messaging that the central bank needed to act forthrightly on inflation and keep at it until the job is done. On the sectoral front, steel stocks showed a substantial move to the upside over the course of the session, resulting in a 5 percent spike by the NYSE Arca Steel Index. Significant strength was also visible among oil service stocks, as reflected by the 4.4 percent surge by the Philadelphia Oil Service Index. The rally by oil service stocks came amid a sharp increase by the price of crude oil, with crude for October delivery jumping $3.25 to $86.79 a barrel. Gold stocks also saw considerable strength amid an increase by the price of the precious metal, driving the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up by 2.9 percent. Computer hardware, airline and semiconductor stocks also showed notable moves to the upside amid broad based buying interest. Meanwhile, reports on consumer and producer price inflation are likely to be in focus next week, as the data could impact expectations regarding future interest rate hikes. Retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment data is also likely to attract attention.


Extending their previous session's gains, crude oil futures ended significantly higher on Friday as traders were bargain hunting after recent losses and covering short positions. Some support came in after latest threat from Russia to choke off oil and gas supplies if price caps are imposed. Also, a weak dollar contributed to the rise in oil prices. A report from Baker Hughes said the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by five to 591 this week, after seeing a decline of nine rigs last week. The data showed the total active U.S. rig count, which includes those drilling for natural gas, dropped by one to 759. Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery rose $3.25 or about 3.9 percent to settle at $86.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery surged $3.69 or about 4.1 percent to settle at $92.84 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.   


Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar on Friday on bouts of dollar-selling amid positive domestic equities and a pullback in crude oil prices. Local currency took support with report that India and US will very soon hold the next ministerial-level meeting of the Trade Policy Forum (TPF) in America to discuss ways for promoting trade and investment between the countries. The forum is an inter-agency collaboration led by the US Trade Representative (USTR). On the global front, sterling jumped against the dollar on Friday, as most majors fought back against the greenback's recent strength, capping a volatile week in which the pound hit a 35-year low, Britain saw a new prime minister, and Queen Elizabeth passed away. Finally, the rupee ended at 79.57 (Provisional), stronger by 12 paisa from its previous close of 79.69 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8536.35 crore against gross selling of Rs 5700.18 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 993.11 crore against gross selling of Rs 1170.61 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 69.29 crore against gross selling of Rs 38.36 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Friday as investors went on a buying spree, shrugging off concerns about the economic outlook. Asian markets are trading in green on Monday on hopes a key reading on US inflation will show some cooling, while the US dollar was restrained by the risk of higher European interest rates and Japanese intervention. Indian markets managed to finish higher for a second straight day in a choppy session on Friday, but gave up much of their intraday gains. Today, markets are likely to start new week on positive note tracking gains in global markets. Investors will be looking ahead to the macro-economic data -- Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) -- to be out later in the day. Sentiments will get a boost as data from Exim Bank showed that India's merchandise exports are expected to grow by 11.4 per cent to hit $114.4 billion during the July-September quarter of the current financial year. Strong FIIs' flow likely to support the Indian markets. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net-bought shares worth Rs 2,132.42 crore on September 9. Also, foreign investors have pumped in close to Rs 5,600 crore into the domestic equity markets in this month so far on expected growth in consumer spending in festive season and better macro fundamentals compared to other emerging markets. Some support will come as the Finance Ministry said the provisional gross direct tax collections for FY23 till September 8 stood at Rs 6.48 trillion, which is 35.5 per cent higher than the same period last year. Besides, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed credit growth of commercial banks is at a near nine-year high of 15.5 per cent year-on-year for the week ended August 26. The credit growth is the highest since November 1, 2013, when it was 16.1 per cent. However, there may be some cautiousness as another data from RBI showed that its headline foreign exchange reserves declined by $7.9 billion to $553.11 billion in the week ended September 2. The reserves are at their lowest since October 9, 2020. Meanwhile, inter-ministerial consultations are progressing on revising the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) base year from 2011-12 to 2017-18. There will be some buzz in the railways stocks as the overall revenue of Indian Railways at the end of August 2022 was Rs 95,486.58 crore, showing an increase of Rs 26,271.29 crore or 38 per cent over the corresponding period of last year. The revenue from passenger traffic was Rs 25,276.54 crore, an increase of Rs 13,574.44 crore (116 per cent) year-on-year. Auto stocks will be in focus as automobile industry body Siam said domestic sales of passenger vehicles (PVs) increased by 21.1 per cent in August to 281,210 units, and added that good monsoon and the upcoming festive season were likely to increase the demand in the coming months. There will be some reaction in sugar industry stocks as Sugar industry body ISMA demanded that the government should allow exports of 80 lakh tonnes of sweetener in the 2022-23 marketing year starting October in view of surplus production. Insurance stocks will be in limelight as the finance ministry is contemplating changes in insurance laws, including reduction in minimum capital requirement, with a view to increasing the insurance penetration in the country.


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  • NTPC has entered into agreement with armed forces for supply renewable energy. 
  • Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's subsidiary -- OTPC has planned to establish one more 360 MW power unit at its Palatana plant in Tripura's Gomati district.
  • IOC has awarded a $75-million EPC contract to Thyssenkrupp Industrial Solutions India to construct a catalytic dewaxing unit at its Baroda refinery in Gujarat.
  • Tata Motors is planning to roll out the electric version of its entry-level model Tiago later this month, in a step towards making environmentally friendly vehicles more accessible to customers.
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