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NSE Intra-day chart (11 April 2023)
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Market Commentary 12 April 2023
Markets to get cautious start ahead of CPI, IIP data; TCS results eyed


Rising for the seventh straight session, Indian equity benchmarks ended with gains of over half percent on Tuesday propelled by robust buying in Metal, Utilities and Banking stocks. On the back of positive Asian cues, the Indian indices started on a firm note and extended the gains as the day progressed. Traders got encouragement as India Ratings said the share of combined capex of states in the GDP may improve marginally to 2.8% in FY24 from 2.5% in FY23. Some support also came with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India's structural reforms approach has ensured that it remains a globally attractive destination for investment and the country is well-positioned in the global economy, allowing it to grow briskly, possibly faster, in the coming years. However, key gauges erased most of their initial gains in late afternoon deals as traders turned cautious amid report that a private weather forecaster predicted below normal monsoon in India in 2023 on account of El Nino conditions. Investors also remained on sidelines ahead of India's consumer price index (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data along with US CPI data. But, markets regained traction to end higher amid continuous foreign fund inflows. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) further bought equities worth Rs 882.52 crore on Monday, according to exchange data. Besides, expectations of healthy fourth-quarter earnings, easing inflation, a pause in rate hikes by the RBI, the return of foreign portfolio investors and improving macroeconomic indicators have underpinned market sentiments. Traders took note of report that India's G20 sherpa Amitabh Kant said India will use the G20 narrative to push its digital transformation story to the rest of the world with an objective of transforming the lives of people in the Global South. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 311.21 points or 0.52% to 60,157.72 and the CNX Nifty was up by 98.25 points or 0.56% to 17,722.30.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday. A lack of major U.S. economic data kept some traders on the sidelines ahead of the release of several key reports in the coming days. The Labor Department's report on consumer price inflation in the month of March is due to be released on Wednesday and could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates. Street currently expect consumer prices to rise by 0.3 percent in March, while the annual rate of growth is expected to slow to 5.2 percent from 6.0 percent. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, are expected to climb by 0.4 percent in March, although the year-over-year growth is expected to accelerate to 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent. Meanwhile, Reports on produce price inflation, retail sales and industrial production are also likely to attract attention in the coming days. Earnings news may also drive trading later in the week, with financial giants Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) due to report their quarterly results on Friday. On the sectoral front, despite the lackluster performance by the broader markets, airline stocks moved sharply higher on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Airline Index up by 3.4 percent. Optimism about additional stimulus from China also contributed to substantial strength among steel stocks, as reflected by the 3.1 percent surge by the NYSE Arca Steel Index.


Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Tuesday on optimism about additional Chinese economic stimulus. Traders reacted to soft inflation data from China. China's consumer inflation hit an 18-month low in March and producer price deflation deepened further, creating room for the central bank to potentially ease its monetary policy. Besides, oil prices also rose on hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease up on its policy tightening after a key U.S. inflation report this week. A U.S inflation report to be released on Wednesday is expected to help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery rose $1.79 or nearly 2.4 percent to settle at $81.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery surged $1.43 or 1.70 percent to settle at $85.61 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.   


Indian Rupee ended lower against the US dollar on Tuesday as dollar demand from importers weighed on investor sentiments. Traders were cautious ahead of inflation report due on April 12, wholesale Inflation on April 14 and earning season of Q4FY23. Investors overlooked India Ratings' statement that the share of combined capex of states in the GDP may improve marginally to 2.8% in FY24 from 2.5% in FY23. Besides, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India's structural reforms approach has ensured that it remains a globally attractive destination for investment and the country is well-positioned in the global economy, allowing it to grow briskly, possibly faster, in the coming years. On the global front, British pound rose for the first day in five against a softening dollar on Tuesday as risk-sentiment improved, helping to push sterling towards the 10-month high it reached last week. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.12 (Provisional), depreciate by 13 paise from its previous close of 81.99 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4382.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 2999.16 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 936.66 crore against gross selling of Rs 171.19 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.48 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.95 crore.


The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast and warned it was too soon to sound the all-clear from the banking turmoil. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday as investors await U.S. inflation data to gauge near-term trajectory for interest rates. Indian markets ended higher on Tuesday for a seventh consecutive session with banks, auto and metal stocks leading the surge. Today, start of the session is likely to be cautious ahead of macro-economic data -- consumer price index (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) -- due to be released later in the day and amid mixed moves across global markets. Traders will be taking encouragement as the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the state-run official weather agency, predicted normal rains during this year's monsoon season - June to September - at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) in spite of the anticipated El Nino conditions. As per a private report, ample rains may boost production of crops like rice, soybeans, corn and sugar cane, helping to lower food prices and aiding the government's efforts to cool inflation. However, there may be some cautiousness as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its economic growth forecast for India by 20 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent for 2023-24 (FY24), citing lesser scope for pent-up demand due to historical revisions to data. The IMF also projected India's retail inflation to ease to 4.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.7 per cent in FY23, and the current account deficit to come down to 2.2 per cent of GDP from an estimated 2.6 per cent a year ago. Traders may be concerned with private report that India's private equity (PE) investment stood at $2,172 million in the first quarter of calendar year 2023, down 75.4 per cent from $8,830 million in Q1 of CY 2022. The investments declined 31.9 per cent sequentially. Sugar stocks would be in focus with a private report that prices of the commodity in the global markets are soaring. There will be some reaction in power industry stocks as rating agency CRISIL said due to unprecedented rainfall, demand for power in India fell 1.3 per cent in March. This fall in demand also led to a fall in power generation by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in the month. Moreover, market participants on Dalal Street await the announcement of financial results by Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), due later in the day, for domestic cues. The Tata group IT giant is all set to kick off the corporate earnings season post-market hours.


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  • NTPC has recorded a coal production of 23.2 million tonnes in FY23, witnessing a 65 per cent growth against 14.02 million tonnes a year ago from its four operational coal mines.
  • State Bank of India is planning for long term fund raising in single / multiple tranches of up to $2 billion under Reg-S/144A, through a public offer and/or private placement during FY24.
  • Maruti Suzuki India is targeting to more than double its SUV sales this year (FY24) and take the leadership position in the fast-growing segment with a market share of over 25 per cent.
  • ICICI Bank has reportedly introduced an equated monthly instalment (EMI) facility for UPI payments made by scanning QR code.
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