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NSE Intra-day chart (10 October 2023)
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Market Commentary 11 October 2023
Benchmarks to open in green on positive global cues; TCS result eyed


Indian equity benchmarks rebounded sharply after previous session slide and gained nearly a percent on Tuesday on the back of a rally in Realty, Metal and Telecom stocks. Markets made a gap up opening and continued to inch higher throughout the day following global stocks amid easing US rate concerns. Traders got encouragement as the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data showed the unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 6.6 per cent during April-June 2023 from 7.6 per cent a year ago. Meanwhile, a private report stated that a pick-up in private investment is an imperative for driving India's growth. The report said with the government trying to bring down the fiscal deficit and the likelihood of subsidy bills going up, public capex-which seems to have led to the uptick in real-investment growth recently-may come down. Markets extended gains in late afternoon deals and traded near their intraday high points, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2023-24 GDP growth forecast for India for the second time in three months, taking it closer to the 6.5 percent predicted by Indian authorities. Some optimism also came with private report stating that Indian retail inflation likely eased to 5.50% last month (September), within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance band, on moderating food price rises and government subsidies that offset a surge in the cost of crude oil. Traders took a note of reports that India and Saudi Arabia have decided to promote investments in each other's country in the new and renewable energy sector. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between India and Saudi Arabia in the fields of Electrical Interconnections, Green / Clean Hydrogen and Supply Chains was signed. Traders overlooked the provisional data available on the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth net Rs 997.76 crore on October 9, 2023. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 566.97 points or 0.87% to 66,079.36 and the CNX Nifty was up by 177.50 points or 0.91% to 19,689.85.


The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials lowered expectations for further interest rate hikes and pushed down bond yields. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury Note dropped to around 4.65 percent as investors chose to pick up some safe-haven assets amid geopolitical concerns. However, gains remained capped as investors looked ahead to the release of U.S. CPI data and minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting this week for further direction. In the stock specific developments, PepsiCo climbed nearly 2 percent after the company's earnings and revenue beat expectations. Bank of America, Tesla, Boeing, Coca-Cola, 3M, American Express, Walmart, Home Depot, Intel and Verizon closed notably higher. On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund downgraded the global growth forecast for next year, saying the projections are weakest in decades, while the likelihood of a soft-landing has increased with growing divergences amid modestly easing inflationary pressures. Global growth was forecast at 3.0 percent this year, the IMF said in its October World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released. That was the same as the projection in the July update to the WEO, while higher than the April forecast of 2.8 percent. The growth outlook for 2024 was lowered to 2.9 percent from 3.0 percent seen in both April and July. The projections remain below the historical average of 3.8 percent for 2000-2019.


Crude oil futures ended lower on Tuesday as traders assessed the likely impact of potential supply disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East. The current developments in Israel don't pose an immediate threat to oil supply as the country produces very little crude oil. Still, it is feared that the sanctions on Iran and subsequent disruptions to Iran's oil supply would have more of an impact on oil markets, if the conflict is protracted in duration. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery fell $0.41 or about 0.5 percent to settle at $85.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery dropped $0.50 or about 0.6 percent to settle at $87.81 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Tuesday as a rally in domestic equity markets boosted investor sentiment. Traders took support with private report stating that Indian retail inflation likely eased to 5.50% last month (September), within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance band, on moderating food price rises and government subsidies that offset a surge in the cost of crude oil. On the global front, Sterling rose on Tuesday, moving further off recent lows and rallying in line with a rebound across markets, as investment flows to safe-haven currencies and assets a day earlier caused by the war in the Middle East reversed somewhat. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.25 (Provisional), higher by 3 paise from its previous close of 83.28 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6847.63 crore against gross selling of Rs 6074.80 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 399.02 crore with gross sales of Rs 885.92 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6.79 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.24 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials pushed Treasury yields lower. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Wednesday tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets recovered sharply and ended with hefty gains on Tuesday as investors shrugged off Israel-Hamas war concerns amid bond yields cooled off globally. Today, domestic indices are likely to extend previous session's gains and open in green amid supportive cues from global peers. Traders continue to take support with report that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its India's GDP growth forecast for the current financial year by 20 basis points (bps) to 6.3%, mainly due to stronger-than-expected consumption during April-June quarter. Some support will come as the Ministry of Finance said India's gross direct tax collection increased by 17.95 per cent on the year to Rs 11.07 lakh crore in the period from April 1 to October 9. Traders may take note of a private report that in order for India to become the biggest driver for global growth, even overtaking China, it would need to target an 8 percent growth. Besides, India and the UK are likely to sign a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) in the last week of this month. Meanwhile, in what could be a shot in the arm for prospective investors and private players in India's space tech ecosystem, the Indian Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the country's space regulator, estimates the size of the Indian space economy to be around $44 billion, including $11 billion of exports over the next 10 years. However, some cautiousness may come as foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth Rs 1,005.49 crore on October 10, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed. IT companies are likely to be in focus as TCS kicks-off the Q2 earnings season, and the board will also be considering a proposal for share buyback. There will be some reaction in NBFCs stocks as the Reserve Bank said the strict supervisory norms under the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) Framework will apply to government-owned non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) from October 2024. There will be some buzz in oil & gas industry stocks as a medium-term forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed that India's natural gas demand is set to grow by 4 per cent in 2023 and rise at an average annual rate of over 8 per cent till 2026.


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  • Rating agency -- Fitch Ratings has upgraded Tata Steel's Issuer Default Rating to BBB- from BB+ with a stable outlook. 
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured contracts for its Water & Effluent Treatment Business. 
  • Bajaj Finance has partnered with Amazon, India's leading e-commerce platform for the Amazon's Great Indian Festival. 
  • LTIMindtree has been selected as a strategic partner for SAP services by Infineon Technologies AG, a global semiconductor leader in power systems and IoT.
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