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NSE Intra-day chart (08 October 2021)
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Market Commentary 11 October 2021
Benchmarks to make flat-to-negative start amid weak global cues


Indian equity benchmarks extended gains to a second straight day, with Nifty 50 closed at record closing high while Sensex ended a few points shy of an all-time high on Friday after the Reserve Bank kept the key benchmark rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive time and promised to maintain the status-quo on rates as long as necessary to revive growth. Markets opened in green and continued its positive run through the day, as sentiments got boost with Ficci stating that India's GDP is expected to grow at 9.1 per cent in 2021-22 as economic recovery, post the second wave of the pandemic, seems to be holding ground. Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey also noted that the ongoing festive season would support this momentum. Sentiments improved further with domestic rating agency Crisil, ahead of the filing of quarterly earnings by companies, said India Inc is set to post an 18-20 per cent revenue growth for July-September as compared to the year-ago period. It said the handsome growth in the topline will be driven by both higher volumes and higher commodity prices. However, key indices cut some of their initial gains in the afternoon session, as traders got anxious with Fitch Ratings' report in which it has further lowered India's Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2022 (FY22) to 8.7 percent from 10 percent projected in June as a result of the severe second virus wave. But, markets regained some traction to end higher by over half percent, as some optimism remained among traders with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the US has huge investment surpluses that can be used in developing infrastructure in India and make it a manufacturing base to help American economy grow and provide goods and services at affordable and competitive prices. Additional support also came with Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian's statement that the focus of the government policies in the last seven years has been on enabling competition in the economy, stressing this is partly responsible for growth of startups. He expressed hope that the country will witness double-digit growth in the current fiscal year aided by a prudent mix of supply and demand side measures undertaken by the government. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 381.23 points or 0.64% to 60,059.06 and the CNX Nifty was up by 104.85 points or 0.59% to 17,895.20.


Snapping three-day winning streak, US markets settled lower on Friday after the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report showed much weaker than expected job growth in the month of September. The report said non-farm payroll employment rose by 194,000 jobs in September after climbing by an upwardly revised 366,000 jobs in August. Street had expected employment to jump by 500,000 jobs compared to the addition of 235,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. Despite the much weaker than expected job growth, the unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent in September from 5.2 percent in August. The unemployment rate was expected to edge down to 5.1 percent. With the bigger than expected decrease, the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level since hitting 4.4 percent in March of 2020. However, the drop in the employment rate was partly due to a decrease in the size of the labor force, reflecting lingering labor supply constraints. The data led to some uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy, although most economists agree the disappointing job growth will not dissuade the Federal Reserve from scaling back stimulus. On the sectoral front, most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves, contributing to the lackluster close by the broader markets. Energy stocks saw significant strength, however, with a sharp increase by the price of crude oil contributing to the strength in the sector. Reflecting the strength in the energy sector, the NYSE Arca Oil Index and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index surged up by 2.7 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. Transportation and banking stocks also saw some strength on the day, while telecom and commercial real estate stocks moved to the downside.


Crude oil futures closed considerably higher on Friday amid tighter supplies and signs of increasing demand for energy. Oil also found support from a recent statement from the U.S. Department of Energy that the Biden administration is not considering tapping into its emergency reserves to tackle the energy crisis in the market. A report from Baker Hughes said U.S. rigs drilling for oil climbed by five to 433 this week, rising for the fifth consecutive week. The report said the total active U.S. rig count, including those drilling for natural gas, also increased by five to 533. Benchmark Crude oil futures for November delivery rose $1.05 or about 1.3 percent to settle at $79.35 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery surged $0.50 or 0.6 percent to settle at $82.45 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended considerably lower on Friday due to mild dollar demand from banks and importers. Sentiments were fragile after the Reserve Bank of India left key rates unchanged and reiterated the need to unwind pandemic-era stimulus only gradually to aid a nascent economic recovery. The RBI's dovishness dashed expectations of investors hoping it would hint at moving towards policy normalisation like some global central banks, with the rupee shedding 0.4% to hit its lowest since late-April. Traders were also worried as Fitch Ratings in its latest report further lowered India's Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2022 (FY22) to 8.7 percent from 10 percent projected in June as a result of the severe second virus wave. On the global front; dollar edged higher versus major peers on Friday but within a narrow range as traders awaited clues from the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on the pace of Federal Reserve policy normalization. Finally, the rupee ended 74.99, weaker by 20 paise from its previous close of 74.79 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net seller in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7192.41 crore against gross selling of Rs 8300.81 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 145.29 crore with gross sales of Rs 236.36 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6.54 crore against gross selling of Rs 41.63 crore.


The US markets ended a volatile session largely lower on Friday after data showed US jobs rose far less than expected in September. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday as global inflation angst favoured commodities as a hedge over US equities. Indian markets ended higher on Friday, led by IT, oil & gas and PSU banking stocks. Today, the start of new week is likely to be flat-to-negative tracking weakness in global peers. Investors may remain on sidelines ahead of macroeconomic data to be out on October 12. There will be some cautiousness as former Reserve Bank Governor C Rangarajan said India becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is impossible under the current circumstance and the country needs to grow at nine per cent per annum for the next five years in order to achieve that. Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray led Maha Vikas Aghadi government in Maharashtra has called for a statewide bandh today, October 11. However, some respite may come later in the day as the World Bank has said in its latest report Buoyed by an increase in public investment and incentives to boost manufacturing, India's economy is expected to grow by 8.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2021-22, less than the previous projection early this year before the country was hit by the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some support may come as exporters stated that aggressive marketing of products, timely implementation of free trade agreements that are under negotiations and affordable credit to MSME players would help in taking the country's merchandise exports to $500 billion in the next financial year. Traders may take note of Union minister Jitendra Singh's statement that India will be among the top five countries to be recognised as a global bio-manufacturing hub by 2025, noting that India's bio-economy is on way to achieve $150-billion target from the current $70 billion. Power stocks will be in focus as power ministry data showed that Power consumption dipped by nearly 2 per cent or by 72 million units (MU) to 3,828 MU on Saturday compared to 3,900 MU on Friday, showing slight improvement in supply situation across the country amid coal shortage crisis. There will be some reaction in fertilizer industry stocks after Fertiliser Minister Mansukh Mandaviya directed all manufacturers not to increase retail prices of DAP and other phosphatic fertilisers as part of the government's efforts to ensure the availability of crop nutrients at affordable prices during the ongoing Rabi season. Solar power industry related stocks will be in limelight as the government is mulling delaying the imposition of customs duty on imported solar equipment or allowing extension of deadline for completion of domestic solar projects which are facing supply uncertainties from vendors in China.There will be some result announcements to keep the markets in action.


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