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NSE Intra-day chart (08 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 09 November 2023
Benchmarks to open in green amid easing crude oil prices


Indian equity benchmarks managed to end marginally higher in lackluster trade on Wednesday backed by gains in Realty and Oil & Gas stocks amid falling crude oil prices. After the flat start, key gauges oscillated in a narrow range till the end as foreign fund outflows dented sentiments. According to the provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth net Rs 497.21 crore on November 7, 2023. Some concern also came with credit rating agency ICRA stating that new investment demand in the second half of this fiscal year is likely to be tempered amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a potential slowdown in the momentum of government capital expenditure (capex) and project execution prior to the general elections. However, markets managed to end the session in green as traders took some support with Crisil Ratings stating that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, confined mainly to the Gaza region now, has caused only negligible disruption in India's trade so far, and added that the Indian companies were not in the crosshairs for now. Traders took a note of Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the finance ministry's focus is not only on increasing GST revenue but also on bringing all the business establishments under its ambit. Meanwhile, the Centre has authorised release of tax devolution of Rs 72,961.21 crore to states for November. This will enable the state governments to make in-time releases and add to the festivities and celebrations among the people. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 33.21 points or 0.05% to 64,975.61 and the CNX Nifty was up by 36.80 points or 0.19% to 19,443.50.


The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday as optimism the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates continued to support the markets. However, the lackluster performance on markets came as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves following the recent strength in the markets. On the sectoral front, most of the sectors showed only modest moves on the day, contributing to the lackluster performance by the broader markets. Gold stocks showed a substantial move to the downside, however, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index plunging by 2.8 percent. The sell-off by gold stocks came amid a decrease by the price of the precious metal, as gold for December delivery fell $15.70 to $1,957.80 an ounce. Considerable weakness was also visible among biotechnology stocks, resulting in a 1.5 percent drop by the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index. On the economic data front, wholesale inventories in the U.S. unexpectedly saw a modest increase in the month of September, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The report said wholesale inventories rose by 0.2 percent in September after edging down by 0.1 percent in August. Street had expected wholesale inventories to come in unchanged. The unexpected uptick in wholesale inventories came as inventories of durable goods crept up by 0.2 percent, while inventories of non-durable goods inched up by 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said wholesale sales shot up by 2.2 percent in September after surging by 2.0 percent in August. Sales of non-durable goods led the way higher, spiking by 3.4 percent, while sales of durable goods climbed by 0.7 percent.


Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Wednesday amid rising concerns about the outlook for energy demand. Data showing a sharp jump in crude oil inventories in the U.S. also weighed on oil prices. A report from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude oil stockpiles increased by nearly 12 million barrels in the week ended November 3. Meanwhile, oil inventory data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be out only next week. EIA said the data will be delayed to enable completion of a planned systems upgrade. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $2.04 or 2.6 percent to settle at $75.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $2.07 or 2.54 percent to settle at $79.54 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Wednesday tracking a strong American currency overseas. Muted trend in domestic equities also weighed on the local unit while a correction in oil prices provided support to the currency. Some concern came with credit rating agency ICRA stating that new investment demand in the second half of this fiscal year is likely to be tempered amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a potential slowdown in the momentum of government capital expenditure (capex) and project execution prior to the general elections. On the global front, the dollar's rebound extended for a third day on Wednesday after some Federal Reserve policymakers left the door open to further rate hikes, as traders looked to a speech from Chair Jerome Powell on the central bank's future policy path. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.28 (Provisional), weaker by 1 paisa from its previous close of 83.27 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7823.69 crore against gross selling of Rs 8136.18 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2198.98 crore with gross sales of Rs 706.80 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.66 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.13 crore.


The US markets ended mostly in green on Wednesday as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves following the recent strength in the markets. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Thursday amid China's October CPI fell 0.2 percent year on year and PPI dropped 2.6 percent. Indian markets ended choppy session in green terrain with marginal gains on Wednesday tracking mixed global cues. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start as crude oil prices softened. Mostly positive cues from global markets may also support domestic markets. Investors looked ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later in the day after he refrained from specifically addressing monetary policy in opening remarks at the U.S. central bank statistics conference on Wednesday. Traders will be taking encouragement as S&P researchers said the Indian government will likely stick close to its fiscal deficit target and the consolidation path till fiscal year 2026, despite the extension of the free foodgrain scheme announcement and the possibility of more such expenditure initiatives as India heads towards general elections next year. Some support will come with a private report that India's government is likely to exceed its tax revenue projections this year, giving Prime Minister Narendra Modi more fiscal room to spend on wooing rural voters ahead of elections. Traders may take note of report that the market regulator is making it easier for investors to access any amount that is due to them but that may have gone unclaimed because of various reasons. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has released three frameworks for dealing with unclaimed amounts lying with listed companies who have issued non-convertible securities, with Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) and with Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). They were released through three separate circulars issued on November 8.  However, there will be some volatility in the markets ahead of weekly F&O expiry later in in the day. Foreign fund outflows may dent sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors offloaded shares worth Rs 84.55 crore on November 8. Jewelers stocks likely to remain in focus during this festive season amid expectations of strong demand on the auspicious occasion of Dhanteras. Investors will be eyeing earnings from Indain Inc for more cues. Adani Ports, Apollo Hospitals, Bosch, Muthoot Finance, Zee Entertainment, Ashok Leyland, Torrent Power, Piramal Enterprises, CarTrade Tech, and Globus Spirits among others to report numbers later in the day.


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