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Market Commentary 09 November 2022
Benchmarks likely to make positive start on firm global cues

 

In a highly volatile session, Indian equity benchmarks ended higher on Monday propelled by robust buying in Oil & Gas, Auto and Realty stocks amid a firm trend in global equities. Key indices made positive opening, as traders found solace with the former Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog Arvind Panagariya's statement that India may log a growth rate of eight per cent of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY23. Traders took note of report that US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen will visit India to participate in the US-India Economic and Financial Partnership on November 11 and discuss how the two countries can work together to deepen their economic ties. A strong rupee against the US dollar and persistent foreign capital inflows supported the domestic equities. As per exchange data, foreign institutional investors were net buyers in the Indian capital market on Friday as they bought shares worth Rs 1,436.25 crore. However, key gauges trimmed gains and traded flat in afternoon deals, as traders turned cautious after chief economic adviser -- V Anantha Nageswaran has said the country's external sector could face some anxious moments this financial year, as the proposed oil price cap on global crude could instead serve to raise those instead. The way the oil price cap is being discussed has encouraged oil and gas traders to stock up on volumes, creating unintended consequences. This could create additional pressure on India's balance of payments. Some concern also came as Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) in its latest data showed that unemployment rate in India jumped to 7.77 per cent in October 2022 as compared to 6.43 per cent in September 2022 on the account of a sharp increase in rural unemployment. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 234.79 points or 0.39% to 61,185.15 and the CNX Nifty was up by 85.65 points or 0.47% to 18,202.80.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday, extending their previous session's gains, amid traders awaited the outcome of US midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress. Republicans are expected to take control of the House and possibly the Senate, and traders are said to prefer a divided government, as times when the White House and Congress are controlled by opposite parties have historically been positive for Wall Street. Meanwhile, traders also continued to look ahead to Thursday's report on consumer price inflation, as the data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates. Street expect a modest slowdown in the annual rate of consumer price growth, which could add to optimism about a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. On the sectoral front, gold stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, resulting in a 6.4 percent spike by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The index soared to its highest closing level in nearly four months. The rally by gold stocks came amid a sharp increase by the price of the precious metal, with gold for December delivery surging $35.50 to $1,716 an ounce. Semiconductor stocks also turned in a strong performance, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up by 2.2 percent to a one-month closing high.

 

Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Tuesday as reports showing a surge in Covid-19 cases in China raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand. China is seeing a surge in new coronavirus cases in Guangzhou and other Chinese cities, preventing the country from stamping out the virus and relaxing controls. The global manufacturing hub is fighting its worst flare-up ever, testing its ability to avoid a Shanghai-style lockdown. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $2.88 or about 3.1 percent at $88.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $2.56 or about 2 percent to settle at $95.36 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.    

 

Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Monday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Traders got support after India's foreign exchange reserves increased by a massive $6.6 billion to $531.1 billion for the week ended October 28, marking their biggest weekly gain since September 2021. Besides, Russia became India's top oil supplier in October, surpassing traditional sellers Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Russia, which made up for just 0.2 per cent of all oil imported by India in the year to March 31, 2022, supplied 935,556 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to India in October - the highest ever. On the global front, sterling rose on Monday, largely boosted by a softer dollar, which pushed the pound back up to levels seen before the Bank of England (BoE) delivered its biggest interest rate hike in three decades last week.  Finally, the rupee ended at 81.92 (Provisional), stronger by 43 paisa from its previous close of 82.35 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7421.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 5822.90 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 225.02 crore against gross selling of Rs 300.71 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 25.83 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday amid investors awaited the results of the US midterm elections, which could affect future levels of government spending and regulation. Asian markets were trading mostly higher in early deals on Wednesday following the positive cues from US markets.   Indian equity markets ended in positive territory on Monday. Markets remained closed on Tuesday on account of Gurunanak Jayanti.  Today, markets are likely to make positive start on firm global. Weak crude oil prices may also provide some support to the markets. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said India will continue buying Russian oil as it is advantageous for the country.  He stated India has emerged as Russia's largest oil customer after China, as refiners snap up discounted Russian oil shunned by Western buyers over Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and a traditional ally of Russia, has not explicitly condemned what Russia calls its special military operation in Ukraine. He added it is government's fundamental obligation to ensure that the Indian consumer has the best possible access on most advantageous terms to international (oil and gas) markets.  Some support may also come as the growth momentum in India's manufacturing sector is likely to have picked up in the September quarter and may sustain for the next six to nine months over rising capacity utilisation, according to the latest quarterly survey on Indian manufacturing sector by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). The survey shows 61 per cent respondents reporting higher production level in September quarter compared to the same period a year ago as against 55 per cent respondents reporting higher output in June quarter of FY23.  However, some cautiousness may come later in the day as India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current fiscal year (FY23) is now expected to be between 6.5 and 7 per cent, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said. This was for the first time a government official said real economic growth may not exceed 7 per cent this fiscal year.  Since the April-June GDP print, a number of agencies, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Reserve Bank of India, have lowered their GDP forecast for India on the back of uneven pick-up in demand and global headwinds caused by the war in Europe. Meanwhile, amid a slowdown in outbound shipments from India, Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal asked exporters to make temporary changes in their pricing structure in order to retain the export market. There will be some buzz in banking sector stocks as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government's efforts to reduce bad loans are yielding result with 12 public sector banks reporting a 50 per cent jump in combined net profit at Rs 25,685 crore in the second quarter ended September. In the first half of FY23, the cumulative net profit of all public sector banks (PSBs) increased by 32 per cent to Rs 40,991 crore.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,202.80

18,093.20

18,283.95

BSE Sensex

61,185.15

60,799.16

61,486.34

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

744.26

106.65

105.01

107.86

State Bank Of India

442.65

613.80

606.76

621.76

TATA MOTORS

1580.58

435.00

429.66

438.91

NTPC

127.99

175.80

173.94

178.59

Power Grid Corporation Of India

111.46

228.00

225.64

231.14

  • Tata Motors has rolled-out its 50000th electric vehicle (EV), from its Pune facility.
  • Dr Reddy's Laboratories has earmarked a capex of around Rs 1,500 crore for FY23 with major part of it slated to go into building capacities for its biosimilar and injectable businesses.
  • Reliance Industries is all set to acquire German retailer METRO AG's Cash & Carry business in India in a deal estimated at around 500 million euros (Rs 4,060 crore).
  • Wipro and VMware have extended collaboration to help mutual customers accelerate their digital journey and maximize their VMware Cloud investments.
News Analysis