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NSE Intra-day chart (08 August 2023)
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Market Commentary 09 August 2023
Markets likely to get positive start on Wednesday


Indian equity benchmarks snapped a two-day gains and ended marginally lower on Tuesday as investors preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of the key events -- RBI's monetary policy and the US inflation data -- due later this week. Weak trend in Asian and European markets also played spoilsport for the domestic markets. The markets opened on a positive note but soon wiped out gains to trade lower as traders got anxious after a private report forecasted a steeply higher retail inflation print for July, pegging it at 6.7 per cent, up 190 basis points from the previous month, citing the sharp rise in food prices. Some concern also came as exchange data showed Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 1,892.77 crore on Monday. Markets added losses in afternoon deals, as traders remained concerned after the team, led by researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the University of Cambridge, UK, found that India's sovereign credit rating could be downgraded due to the impact of climate change and the rise in temperature volatility by as early as the 2030s. Some concern also came as Moody's cut credit ratings of several small to mid-sized U.S. banks and said it may downgrade some of the nation's biggest lenders, warning that the sector's credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability. Sentiments remained down-beat amid reports that a fresh set of 1.25 lakh entities, including government agencies, are currently under probe by the Goods and Services Tax (GST) authorities in the drive to curb fake input tax credit (ITC). These are entities found to have taken supplies from bogus entities identified in the initial two-month drive held by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) earlier. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 106.98 points or 0.16% to 65,846.50 and the CNX Nifty was down by 26.45 points or 0.13% to 19,570.85.


The US markets ended lower on Tuesday due to concerns about global economic growth after data showed China's exports and imports both fell more than expected in July, threatening recovery prospects and adding to pressure on policymakers to unveil additional stimulus. Further, weakness also prevailed in markets as Moody's lowered credit ratings for 10 smaller U.S. banks and said it was reviewing ratings for six larger ones, renewing focus on the health of the banking system. A broad sell off in regional bank shares-including KeyCorp and Comerica-made financial stocks among the worst performers in the S&P 500. Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup shares were caught in the downdraft and also declined. On the economic data front, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in the month of June. The report said the trade deficit shrank to $65.5 billion in June from a revised $68.3 billion in May. Street had expected the trade deficit to decrease to $65.0 billion from the $69.0 billion originally reported for the previous month. The narrower trade deficit came as the value of imports slid by 1.0 percent to $313.0 billion, while the value of exports edged down by 0.1 percent to$247.5 billion.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday after a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected U.S. GDP growth to rise by 1.9% this year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent crude oil prices to average $86 in the second half of 2023, up about $7 from the previous forecast. Meanwhile, traders now await, weekly oil reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA). Benchmark crude oil futures for September delivery rose $0.98 or about 1.19 percent to settle at $82.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for October delivery rose $0.83 or 0.97 percent to settle at $86.17 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee weakened considerably against dollar on Tuesday due to fresh demand for American currency from banks and importers. Investors also preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of the key events -- RBI's monetary policy and the US inflation data -- due later this week. The rupee sentiment was hit with a private report forecasted a steeply higher retail inflation print for July, pegging it at 6.7 per cent, up 190 basis points from the previous month, citing the sharp rise in food prices. The domestic currency was also weighed down by dollar's strength against some other currencies overseas. On the global front, U.S. dollar turned higher on Tuesday after another disappointing set of Chinese trade figures hurt the yuan, the Aussie and kiwi, while the yen also eased after Japanese real wages declined for a 15th straight month. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.91 (Provisional), weaker by 16 paise from its previous close of 82.75 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11794.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 9542.33 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 391.27 crore with gross sales of Rs 448.89 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 18.26 crore against gross selling of Rs 42.20 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Tuesday after Moody's downgraded the credit rating on several regional banks. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday as China's consumer price index fell in July, for the first time in 28 months. Indian markets gyrated in a narrow trading band and ended lower on Tuesday, amid alternate bouts of buying and selling. Today, markets are likely to get positive start. All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting as it will enter its second day today. There are expectations that the rate setting panel will keep the repo rates steady on Thursday, but adopt a hawkish tone amid rising vegetable prices. Some support will come as the World Trade Organization (WTO) said that two separate dispute settlement panels have stated that India and the US have mutually resolved disputes with regard to certain measures on steel and aluminium products, and additional duties on certain products from the US. Traders may take note of Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the 28 per cent GST on full face value of supplies in casinos, race courses and online gaming will result in higher revenues. However, upside may remain limited with a private report indicating that India's retail inflation likely accelerated to 6.40% in July on surging food prices, breaching the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India's 2%-6% tolerance band for the first time in five months. There may be some cautiousness with report that Indian wheat prices surged to a six-month high due to limited supplies and robust demand ahead of the festival season. The increasing prices may prompt New Delhi to eliminate import duties on the cereal to bolster supplies and control prices ahead of key state polls and next year's general election. Besides, foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth Rs 711.34 crore on August 8, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed. Meanwhile, Capital markets regulator SEBI has decided to provide a facility for exemption from one-time password (OTP) to facilitate the reversal of erroneous transfers of securities in demat accounts. There will be some reaction in broadcast sector stocks as the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) issued a new consultation paper for the broadcasting sector, seeking to discuss customer fees and whether Direct To Home (DTH) operators should mandatorily provide free-to-air channels.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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News Analysis