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Market Commentary 09 January 2023
Domestic indices to make gap-up opening on firm global cues

 

Extending their losing streak for third straight session, Indian equity benchmarks ended the dismal day of trade with losses of over half percent on Friday, breaching their crucial 60,000 (Sensex) and 17,900 (Nifty) levels.  After the initial uptick, markets traded under pressure for most part of the trade amid persistent selling by foreign investors. Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,449.45 crore on January 5, as per provisional data available on the NSE. The sentiments were downbeat with a private report stated that India's economy is expected to grow 5.5% in the next financial year, a notch below the expected potential rate of 6%, as growth momentum in the country was slowing gradually. Adding to the pessimism, Union Health Ministry data updated on Friday showed that India recorded 228 new coronavirus infections, while the number of active cases decreased to 2,503. The total number of cases involving Covid was 4.46 crore (4,46,79,547). Key gauges extended fall in late afternoon deals, as traders reacted negatively to private report that India is set to post a balance of payment (BoP) deficit for the second straight year in the next fiscal, which would be the first such instance in two decades. A report said that it expects the country to record a BoP deficit of $24 billion this fiscal year and $5.5 billion in the next, against a surplus of $47.5 billion last year. Apart from this, a spike in crude oil prices also kept investors on the edge. However, frontline indices managed to trim some losses towards the end taking support from the report that the commerce and industry ministry is hopeful of improvement in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the coming months despite global headwinds. Traders also took a note of report that Israel's newly-appointed Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar have discussed about ways to strengthen bilateral ties, including ways to promote Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and projects in the field of innovation, food and water security. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 452.90 points or 0.75% to 59,900.37 and the CNX Nifty was down by 132.70 points or 0.74% to 17,859.45.

 

The US markets started the session on cautious note but soon gained momentum and ended with strong gains of over 2% each on Friday. Rally on the Wall Street came as data from the Labor Department showed employment in the U.S. increased by slightly more than expected in the month of December. The report said non-farm payroll employment jumped by 223,000 jobs in December after surging by a revised 256,000 jobs in November. Street had expected employment to shoot up by 200,000 jobs compared to the addition of 263,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in December from a revised 3.6 percent in November. The unemployment rate was expected to come in unchanged compared to the 3.7 percent originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, investors hoped that the report from the Institute for Supply Management showing U.S. service sector activity unexpectedly contracted in the month of December will convince the Federal Reserve to continue to slow their aggressive pace on interest rate hikes. The ISM said its services PMI tumbled to 49.6 in December from 56.5 in November, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. Street had expected the index to edge down to 55.0. With the much bigger than expected decrease, the index indicated a contraction for the first time since May 2020, when it hit 45.2.

 

Crude oil futures trimmed initial gains and settled in green with modest gains on Friday as fears of a global recession raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand. Data showing a contraction in U.S. service sector activity in the month of December weighed on oil prices. The ISM said its services PMI tumbled to 49.6 in December from 56.5 in November, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. Initial surge in oil prices came on optimism surrounding China's reopening and expectations of further stimulus measures. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery rose 10 cents or 0.1 percent at $73.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for March delivery fell 12 cents or nearly 0.2 percent at $78.57 a barrel (provisional) on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

After two successive gaining sessions, rupee settled lower against dollar on Friday tracking gloomy domestic equities. Traders were concerned ahead of first advance estimates of economic growth for 2022-23 to be released later in the day by National Statistical Office. The first advance estimates of national income for 2022-23 is significant because the data is used for preparing the Budget of the central government for next financial year of 2023-24. Besides, investors awaited key U.S. jobs data later in the day for additional clues on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike stance. On the global front, dollar held near an almost one-month high on Friday, after U.S. economic data highlighted a still-tight labour market that could keep the Federal Reserve on its aggressive rate hike path. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.71 (Provisional), weaker by 9 paise from its previous close of 82.62 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7320.88 crore against gross selling of Rs 8577.29 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 4571.04 crore against gross selling of Rs 4647.85 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.93 crore against gross selling of Rs 10.33 crore.

 

The US markets settled higher on Friday after December payrolls expanded more than expected even as wage increases slowed and services activity contracted, easing worries about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking path. Asian markets are trading in green on Monday as hopes for less aggressive US rate hikes and the opening of China's borders bolstered the outlook for the global economy. Indian markets fell on Friday with investors nervous ahead of the earnings season coupled with selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) amid worries over US non-farm payroll data. Today, start of the session is likely to be gap-up on account of optimistic global cues. Investors focus will be on the December quarter earnings, which will kick off with Tata Consultancy Services' results, due later today. Some support will come as latest central bank data showed that the Reserve Bank of India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $44 million to $562.85 billion in the week ended December 30. The data showed the marginal rise in the RBI's reserves in the week gone by was due to a rise in the central bank's gold reserves which rose $354 million to $41.32 billion. Traders may take note of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that consistently high inflation may pose risks to economic growth and it is, therefore, important for South Asian countries to work towards price stability. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said the optional income tax regime with seven tax slabs was brought in by the government to ensure lower rates for those in the low income bracket. However, traders may be concerned as advanced estimates of National Income for 2022-23 revealed by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that Indian economy is likely to grow at 7 per cent in 2022-23 as compared to 8.7 per cent in 2021-22. The fall will mainly be due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Some cautiousness may come as foreign institutional investors (FII) net sold shares worth Rs 2,902.46 crore on January 6, as per provisional data available on the NSE. There will be some buzz in metal stocks with a private report that India's exports of finished steel more than halved during the first nine months of the fiscal year that began in April 2022. Agriculture industry stocks will be focus as Trade Promotion Council of India (TPCI) said India's agri exports are growing at a healthy pace and there is a need to focus on the processed food sector as it holds huge potential to boost the country's outbound shipments. There will be some reaction in power companies stocks with report that total outstanding dues owed by electricity distribution companies (discoms) to power producers almost halved to Rs 62,681.68 crore in January, compared to Rs 1,21,030 crore in same month in 2022.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,859.45

17,754.20

18,006.05

BSE Sensex

59,900.37

59,534.31

60,402.03

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

585.51

115.60

114.61

117.21

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

168.04

147.50

146.50

148.30

ICICI Bank

148.04

870.50

861.01

879.46

NTPC

132.16

169.25

167.81

171.41

Coal India

122.37

214.10

210.76

218.66

 

  • NTPC has crossed the 300 billion units mark of electricity generated during the current fiscal year. 
  • Reliance Industries' subsidiary -- Jio Platforms has signed an agreement with SOA University to set up a 5G lab in Bhubaneswar.
  • Maruti Suzuki India's Grand Vitara is now being introduced with S-CNG technology. 
  • Bajaj Finserv's unlisted insurance subsidiary -- Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company has reported gross direct premium underwritten of Rs 1,209.25 crore in the month of December 2022 as compared to Rs 1,123.59 in December 2021, i.e up by 7.62% on year-on-year basis.
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