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NSE Intra-day chart (07 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 08 November 2023
Markets likely to get positive start on sharp fall in crude oil prices


Indian equity benchmarks erased initial losses and ended flat on Tuesday. This was partly due to positive Q2 results, which offset the losses suffered due to weakness across Asian markets. Markets made a negative start and stayed in red for most part of the day as traders were cautious with private report stating that a sustained oil price of $110 a barrel could undermine India's economic stability, likely forcing the central bank to resume hiking interest rates. It said as the world's third-biggest consumer of oil, India is one of the most exposed economies in Asia to rising crude prices. A $10 increase in oil prices boosts inflation by 50 basis points and contributes to a 30 basis-point widening in the current account balance. Some concern also came as financials witnessed the most FPI selling in October to the tune of Rs 118.04 billion. Information Technology (IT) stocks saw outflows worth Rs 32.62 billion, amid weak results, elevated US Treasury yields and rate concerns in the US. Markets extended losses in afternoon deals, as sentiments remained dampened with the provisional data available on the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth net Rs 549.37 crore on November 6, 2023.  However, the frontline indices came off intra-day lows in late deals, as traders found some support with credit rating agency Fitch ratings' report stating that the Indian economy has the potential to clock 6.2 per cent annual average growth rate in the medium term during the 2019-27 period. Traders took a note of Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India's G20 presidency had provided a clear policy direction to address the needs of the majority of the global population whose voices were often unheard in multilateral forums. Meanwhile, the government is likely to hold a series of meetings in November to review, and streamline processes in indirect taxation, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 16.29 points or 0.03% to 64,942.40 and the CNX Nifty was down by 5.05 points or 0.03% to 19,406.70.


The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as treasury yields showed a notable move back to the downside after surging in the previous session. However, profit taking contributed to the initial weakness on markets, as some traders looked to cash in on the recent strength in the markets. Meanwhile, traders looked ahead to speeches by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday. On the sectoral front, software stocks turned in a strong performance on the day, driving the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index up by 1.6 percent to its best closing level in well over three months. Considerable strength was also visible among biotechnology stocks, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index climbing by 1.2 percent. Airline, retail and tobacco stocks also showed notable moves to the upside, while energy stocks moved sharply lower along with the price of crude oil. With crude for December delivery plummeting $3.45 to $77.37 a barrel, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index plunged by 3.9 percent and the NYSE Arca Oil Index dove 2.4 percent. On the economic data front, a report released by the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit widened by more than expected in the month of September. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit increased to $61.5 billion in September from a revised $58.7 billion in August. Street had expected the trade deficit to climb to $60.2 billion from the $58.3 billion originally reported for the previous month. The wider than expected deficit came as the value of imports surged by 2.7 percent to $322.7 billion, while the value of exports jumped by 2.2 percent to $261.1 billion.


Crude oil futures ended sharply lower after China data highlighted demand concerns. China's exports declined more than expected in October due to the lackluster global demand. The annual decline in exports worsened to 6.4 percent in October from 6.2 percent in September. This was much bigger than the expected drop of 3.3 percent and marked the sixth consecutive decline. Further, weak economic data from U.K. and the eurozone weighed as well on oil prices. The dollar's surge hurt as well. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $3.45 or 4.3 percent to settle at $77.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $3.57 or 4.74 percent to settle at $81.61 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Tuesday tracking a strong American currency overseas and sustained foreign fund outflows. Traders were concerned as financials witnessed the most FPI selling in October to the tune of Rs 118.04 billion. Besides, private report stated that a sustained oil price of $110 a barrel could undermine India's economic stability, likely forcing the central bank to resume hiking interest rates. It said as the world's third-biggest consumer of oil, India is one of the most exposed economies in Asia to rising crude prices. A $10 increase in oil prices boosts inflation by 50 basis points and contributes to a 30 basis-point widening in the current account balance. On the global front, dollar advanced on Tuesday as last week's rally in riskier currencies took a breather, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates but tweaked its outlook, spurring investor expectations that rate hikes are nearing an end. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.26 (Provisional), weaker by 5 paise from its previous close of 83.21 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8697.80 crore against gross selling of Rs 8337.93 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 801.76 crore with gross sales of Rs 813.55 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 15.26 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as long-term Treasury yields fell after a solid auction of $48 billion in 3-year notes. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday after hawkish comments from Fed officials and ahead of Chair Jerome Powell's speech. Indian markets snapped three-day gaining rally and ended flat with negative bias on Tuesday amid weak cues from Asian counterparts. Today, markets are likely to open in green following a sharp fall in Crude oil prices overnight on demand concerns. Traders will be taking encouragement with report that India's inclusion in certain emerging-market bond indexes managed by JP Morgan is anticipated to diversify the investor base for Indian government securities. According to a report by Fitch Ratings, this move is likely to contribute to a slight reduction in funding costs and encourage further development in the domestic capital market. Some support will come as Crisil Ratings said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, confined mainly to the Gaza region now, has caused only negligible disruption in India's trade so far, and added that the Indian companies were not in the crosshairs for now. However, Fed official comments on likely more rate hikes may taper the investor confidence. Some cautiousness may come as credit rating agency ICRA said new investment demand in the second half of this fiscal year is likely to be tempered amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a potential slowdown in the momentum of government capital expenditure (capex) and project execution prior to the general elections. Meanwhile, the Centre has authorised release of tax devolution of Rs 72,961.21 crore to states for November. This will enable the state governments to make in-time releases and add to the festivities and celebrations among the people. There will be some buzz in insurance industry stocks as Life Insurance companies reported a 7.64 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in new business premiums (NBPs) in October this year, supported by a healthy growth in premiums of private sector insurers which offset the contraction posted by the state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC). Aviation industry stocks will be in limelight as the central government is framing a policy to transform the country's airports into global hubs that would offer single-point international connectivity to Asia. There will be some reaction in consumer goods sector stocks with a private report that India's consumer goods sector clocked a 9% growth in value in the July-September quarter as spending power improved in the hinterlands. Meanwhile, investors will keep eye on earnings of many companies to be out later in the day for more cues.


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  • Tata Steel has executed Share Purchase and Shareholders' Agreement with Tata Power Renewable Energy and its wholly owned subsidiary, TP Vardhaman Surya. 
  • Standard Chartered Bank has partnered with Tata Motors for offering Supply Chain Finance Solutions to their passenger Electric Vehicle dealers. 
  • Axis Bank has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Institute of Rural Management Anand, to establish the Axis Bank Chair for Financial Inclusion at IRMA. 
  • L&T's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured repeat orders for its Water & Effluent Treatment Business from the Water Resources Department, Government of Odisha.
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