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NSE Intra-day chart (04 November 2021)
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Market Commentary 08 November 2021
Markets likely to open in green on Monday


Indian equity benchmarks ended a volatile session lower on Wednesday, extending losses to a second straight day amid brisk selling in frontline bluechip counters. Markets opened on a positive note as sentiments got a boost with Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar has said that the country's economy is likely to grow by 10 per cent or more in the current fiscal (FY22), and going forward, once Indian economy out of the COVID-19 pandemic, it will grow at 8 per cent plus in the next fiscal year (FY23). Some optimism also came with a private report stating that hiring activity expanded by 43 per cent year-on-year in October driven by strong demand for technology professionals. According to the report, with 2,523 job listings in October 2021, there was a 43 per cent year-on-year (Y-O-Y) growth. However, markets erased all early gains, with indices slipping further during closing hours, even as a private survey showed India's dominant services industry expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade on improved domestic demand despite high inflation, driving firms to take on staff at a rate not seen since the onset of the pandemic. The IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index accelerated to 58.4 last month from 55.2 in September, above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for a third straight month. Traders overlooked Minister of State for Electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar's statement that India has an unprecedented opportunity to grow electronics manufacturing to $300 billion in the next 3-4 years, building on scale, competitiveness, large market and enabling policies.  He also said the world is seeking more trusted sources for electronics manufacturing post the outbreak of COVID-19 and India has all the essential elements in place to seize the opportunity. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 257.14 points or 0.43% to 59,771.92 and the CNX Nifty was down by 59.75 points or 0.33% to 17,829.20. Meanwhile, India's benchmark indexes posted gains of around half a percent each during the special hour-long Muhurat trade session on Thursday amid optimism over economic recovery. BSE Sensex surged 295.70 points or 0.49% to 60,067.62 and the CNX Nifty was up by 87.60 points or 0.49% to 17,916.80


The US markets closed higher on Friday. The major averages extended a recent upward trend, reaching new record closing highs. The continued strength on Wall Street came after the Labor Department released a report showing U.S. employment increased by more than expected in the month of October. The report said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 531,000 jobs in October after climbing by an upwardly revised 312,000 jobs in September. Street had expected employment to jump by 425,000 jobs compared to the addition of 194,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. With employment increasing by more than expected, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent in October from 4.8 percent in September, hitting its lowest level since March of 2020. The unemployment rate was expected to edge down to 4.7 percent. The Labor Department described the job growth as widespread, with notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. The upbeat jobs data added to optimism about the outlook for the economy despite lingering concerns about supply chain issues and rising inflation. Stocks also continued to benefit from recent upward momentum, which has lifted the major averages to record highs on largely upbeat earnings news. Signals the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to raise interests also continued to generate buying interest even as the central bank begins scaling back its asset purchases.


Rebounding a day after a drop to the lowest price since October, crude oil futures ended significantly higher on Friday as traders continued to digest news that OPEC and its allies decided on Thursday to stick with a plan to raise oil output modestly and gradually. Oil prices may also have benefited from upbeat U.S. jobs data, which may had generated optimism about the outlook for demand. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 531,000 jobs in October after climbing by an upwardly revised 312,000 jobs in September. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery rose $2.46 or 3.1 percent to settle at $81.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery added $2.20 or 2.7 percent to settle at $82.74 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Continuing previous session gains, Indian rupee ended considerably higher on Wednesday due to selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Sentiments were upbeat as India's service sector activity expanded in the month of October, with companies indicating that a notable pick-up in new business led to the fastest expansion in output in over a decade. As per the survey report, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index stood at 58.4 in October from 55.2 in September. Adding more optimism, Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar stated that the country's economy is likely to grow by 10 per cent or more in the current fiscal. On the global front, sterling was broadly unchanged on Wednesday but within striking distance of its almost three-week lows versus the dollar and the euro ahead of crucial central bank policy meetings in Britain and the United States. Finally, the rupee ended 74.46, stronger by 22 paise from its previous close of 74.68 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8639.19 crore against gross selling of Rs 7467.92 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1480.47 crore with gross sales of Rs 465.51 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 21.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 34.91 crore.


The US market ended higher on Friday following an encouraging report on hiring across the country. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday following China's trade data released over the weekend. Indian markets gave up early gains and ended lower on Wednesday despite a survey showed India's services sector recorded its strongest output growth in ten and a half years in October. Benchmarks began Samvat 2078 on a positive note in a special Muhurat trading session from 06:15 PM till 07:15 PM on Thursday. Markets remain closed on Friday owing to Diwali Balipratipada. Today, start of the session is likely to be positive tracking gains from US markets on Friday. Sentiments will get a boost as industry chamber PHDCCI said India's economic recovery gained momentum in recent months on the back of rapid progress in vaccinations, festive season and consequent improvement in consumer and industry sentiments. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index for October 2021 increased to 131 as compared with 113.1 in the previous month. Some support will come as State Bank of India (SBI) Chairman Dinesh Kumar Khara said India is ready to move into the next orbit of growth with the hugely successful implementation of the COVID-19 vaccination program. Traders may take note of report that the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has issued refunds of over Rs 1,12,400 crore to more than 91 lakh taxpayers from April 1 to November 1. Income tax refunds of Rs 33,548 crore have been issued in 89,53,923 cases & corporate tax refunds of Rs 78,942 crore have been issued in 1,75,692 cases. Besides, the Reserve Bank said India's forex reserves have increased by $1.919 billion to $642.019 billion for the week ended October 29 on a healthy increase in the currency assets and value of gold. The overall reserves had declined by $908 million to $640.1 billion at the end of the previous reporting week. Meanwhile, the Centre released Rs 17,000 crore as GST compensation to states to meet the shortfall in their revenue. There will be some buzz in the banking stocks as RBI data showed bank credit grew by 6.84 per cent to Rs 110.46 lakh crore and deposits by 9.94 per cent to Rs 157.12 lakh crore in the fortnight ended October 22. Oil & Gas sector stocks will be in focus as the Centre, on the eve of Diwali, announced a reduction in the excise duty levied on petrol and diesel. While the excise duty on per litre of petrol has been reduced by Rs 5, the same has been brought down on diesel by Rs 10. There will be some reaction in power stocks as Coal dispatch to the power sector has increased by 27.13 per cent to 59.73 million tonnes (MT) in October, owing to a spurt in power demand amid unprecedented rise in import prices. Meanwhile, Digital payments company Paytm will open its initial public offer (IPO) for subscription on Monday (November 8). The three-day IPO will close on November 10. At $2.46 billion, Paytm IPO is said to be the biggest in India.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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