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NSE Intra-day chart (06 March 2023)
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Market Commentary 08 March 2023
Markets likely to get negative start on Wednesday


Indian equity benchmarks ended higher for a second session in a row on Monday on the back of gains in Utilities, Power and Oil & Gas stocks following strong global trends. Markets made an optimistic start and extended gains as the day progressed, as traders took encouragement with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the country's goods and services exports are expected to cross $750 billion this fiscal despite the global economic uncertainties. In 2021-22, the country's goods and services exports touched an all-time high of $422 billion and $254 billion respectively, taking the total shipments to $676 billion. Some support also came with Union minister of state for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) -- Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma's statement that the central government will increase the number of technology centres to provide tools, trained personnel and consultancy to MSMEs for stimulating growth of industries. Verma highlighted the crucial role played by the sector during the COVID-19 crisis. However, in the second half, markets trimmed some of the intraday gains, as traders got anxious after the Reserve Bank of India said India's foreign exchange reserves dropped $325 million to $560.942 billion as of February 24, making it the fourth consecutive week of decline in the kitty. Some cautiousness also came as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar conveyed to his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang at a meeting that the state of India-China relations is abnormal as their talks focused on addressing the challenges in bilateral ties, especially that of peace and tranquility in the border areas. But, markets managed to end the session higher, as some optimism remained among traders with a report from the National Statistical Office (NSO) showing that the annual per capita (net national income) at current prices is estimated at Rs 1,72,000 in 2022-23, up from Rs 86,647 in 2014-15, suggesting an increase of about 99 per cent. Some support also came as Joint Secretary in the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) Sanjiv Singh stated that the government is working to bring a national retail trade policy for brick and mortar retail traders, in order to promote ease of doing business. He added that the policy would also help in providing better infrastructure and more credit to traders. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 415.49 points or 0.69% to 60,224.46 and the CNX Nifty was up by 117.10 points or 0.67% to 17,711.45.


The US markets settled in red on Tuesday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that rates may need to go higher for longer, fueling fears of a potentially larger hike at the central bank's next policy meeting. The comments indicated that the Fed may consider a larger rate hike than last month's 25 basis point increase at its next policy meeting on March 21-22. Powell also said the Fed would be prepared to reaccelerate the pace of rate hikes if the totality of incoming data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted. Additionally, the Fed chief reiterated the central bank will likely need to maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time in order to restore price stability. The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 21-22, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 70.5 percent chance of 50 basis point rate increase and a 29.5 percent chance of 25 basis point rate hike. On the sectoral front, gold stocks turned in some of the worst performances on the day, dragging the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down by 4.0 percent to a nearly four-month closing low. The sell-off by gold stocks came amid a steep drop by the price of the precious metal, with gold for April delivery plunging $34.60 to $1,820 an ounce. Substantial weakness was also visible among banking stocks, as reflected by the 3.9 percent nosedive by the KBW Bank Index. The index tumbled to its lowest closing level in well over a month.


Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Tuesday amid renewed uncertainty about energy demand after weak economic data from China. Further, oil prices fell after Fed Chair Powell said interest rates will likely remain high in order to fight inflation. Citing stubbornly elevated inflation and stronger than expected economic data, Powell said during his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee that ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery fell $2.88 or 3.6 percent to $77.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery dropped $2.89 or 3.4 percent to $83.29 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Monday, as a positive trend in domestic equities and fresh foreign fund inflows boosted investors' sentiments. The National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 246.24 crore on March 3. Besides, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India's goods and services exports are expected to cross $750 billion this fiscal despite the global economic uncertainties. On the global front, U.S. dollar eased on Monday as investors awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ahead of the February jobs report at the end of the week that will likely influence how much more the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.92 (Provisional), stronger by 5 paise from its previous close of 81.97 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6963.99 crore against gross selling of Rs 6727.15 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 317.60 crore against gross selling of Rs 1324.29 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1279.84 crore against gross selling of Rs 17.16 crore.


The US markets ended sharply lower on Tuesday after the US Fed Chief remained firm on monetary policy tightening course until core inflation is down to its 2 per cent target. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Wednesday as traders anticipated a larger rate hike at the next policy meeting. Indian markets ended higher on Monday as softening US 10-year Treasury bond yield, and China's modest economic growth target eased concerns about inflation and rate hikes. Markets were closed on Tuesday on account of Holi. Today, domestic indices are likely to get negative start mirroring the moves across global markets. The US Fed Chief said he anticipates higher rates to be higher than previously predicted. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. The National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 721.37 crore on March 6. Some support may come as Finance Ministry data showed that there has been a rise of 133 per cent in collection of major cess and surcharges levied by the Central government on various products during the five-year period between 2017-18 and 2022-23, as it went up from Rs 2,18,553 crore in 2017-18 to Rs 5,10,549 crore in 2022-23. Traders may take note of Moody's Analytics' statement that India's domestic economy, rather than trade, is its primary engine of growth and the slowdown in economic activity late last year will only be temporary. Besides, the seventh round of India-UK free trade agreement (FTA) talks concluded following technical discussions across 11 policy areas over 43 separate sessions between negotiators from both sides here last month. Meanwhile, Markets watchdog Sebi came out with a framework for the adoption of cloud services by stock exchanges, clearing corporations and other regulated entities. There will be some buzz in the aviation industry stocks as rating agency Icra revised the outlook for the country's aviation sector to stable from negative, citing fast-paced recovery in the domestic air passenger traffic. Sugar stocks will be in focus with a report that India has a cushion to export additional 1 million tonnes of sugar this year if the domestic output reaches the estimated 33.6 million tonnes. There will be some reaction in select auto stocks as the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) data showed that Maruti Suzuki India and Hyundai Motor India saw a dip in their market share in February, while Tata Motors, Mahindra and Kia India witnessed a year on year increase last month. Power industry stocks will be in limelight as rating agency ICRA said India's thermal plant load factor (PLF) improved to 64 percent in FY2023 from 58.9 percent in FY2022, driven by a strong recovery in electricity demand growth in the country.


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  • Bajaj Finserv's unlisted insurance subsidiary -- Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company has reported Gross Direct Premium underwritten of Rs 934.76 crore in the month of February 2023. 
  • HCL Technologies is eyeing to double semiconductor services business in 3-4 years following capabilities that it will develop around electronic chip plants to be set by its group firm.
  • Tech Mahindra is planning to invest up to Rs 700 crore in the newly carved out division of products and platforms in the next two years.
  • Hero MotoCorp has launched the Super Splendor XTEC.
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